TRIGGER WARNING: This is just ignorance-based opinion, but it is firmly-held ignorance-based opinion.
Historically, the peoples of the Middle East have been pretty spineless and malleable.[1] The Persians showed up, and people “Medized.” The Greeks under that lunatic Alexander showed up, and people “Hellenized.” The Romans showed up and it turns out that they had also kinda “Hellenized,” so people “Romanized.” The Roman Empire become Christian, so people “Christianized.” The Arabs-actually-from-Arabia showed up and people slowly abandoned Christianity and “Islamized.”[2] Most recently, “Authoritarian” governments with tools borrowed from the West showed up.[3] People “Authoritarianized.” Someday, these places may “Democratize.” Don’t hold your breath.
At least in modern times, the people of the Middle East aren’t a military people. The armies of the Middle East haven’t been very good.[4] This is explained by cultural factors, rather than being somehow genetic. The enlisted men come from the peasantry, while the officers come from the idle rich. The latter despise the former and don’t take their responsibilities seriously.[5] HOWEVER, there is a very tough strand of fanaticism in Middle Eastern societies that is willing to fight to the last civilian, no matter how difficult the circumstances. This trait has been on display in the Iran-Iraq War, the civil war in Iraq triggered by the American invasion, and the wars by Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel. They just keep going no matter how hard the enemy pounds on them, no matter how many obvious defeats they suffer. The current regime governing Iran may be cut from this same cloth.
Iran has engaged in massive, sustained deception while pursuing nuclear weapons for several decades. So did Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Iran has been under severe economic sanction, off and on, for a long time. Even when they make agreements, they don’t keep them. Cyber-attacks, assassinations, and bombing don’t stop them. They just sweep up the debris, cart off the bodies, and start work again.
The outcome of “Trump’s War,” as the very cosmopolitan American media likes to refer to it, depends in part, on two things.
First, Trump ordered the war, but the American military is waging the war. How are they doing? Iran’s air defenses have been largely destroyed. Its ballistic missile and drone forces have been badly degraded, although not totally eliminated. Its naval forces have been badly battered, with any vessels that could be used for laying mines in the sea lanes a primary target for attack. Undoubtedly, American aircraft are relentlessly hunting any remaining missile forces and they are closely watching the long southern coastline of Iraq. How far inland they have to watch depends on the effective range of whatever missile forces remain in Iran’s possession.
Once these dangers are reduced to a tolerable level, then convoying of tankers can begin. There would still need to be constant vigilance against Iran playing possum for a while, then starting to move new missiles down within range of the sea lanes. Can land-based American aircraft in the Gulf States handle this mission? In any event, the longer the war goes on, the more damaged Iran will suffer. Maybe Iran will opt for a deal.
Second, Donald Trump is a deal-maker. He disliked the Obama administration’s deal with Iran,[6] so he tore it up in his first administration. He put pressure on Iran to make a better deal. Iran wouldn’t deal. Joe Biden tried to revive the old agreement. Iran wouldn’t deal. In his second administration, Trump pressured Iran to make a deal. Iran wouldn’t deal. Trump joined Israel’s attack on the nuclear program. Iran still wouldn’t deal, although they engaged in limited talks. Trump launched the current attack. He’s still looking for a deal.
What about “regime change”? Trump doesn’t really want a US-imposed regime change. No de-Bathification catastrophe on his watch.[7] It’s difficult for Westerners to imagine that anyone in Iran supports this crazy, murderous dictatorship. There is a good chance that many Iranians actually do support it, or fear the bloodshed of a civil war. So, when Trump says he wants “regime change,” he really means “I want the regime to change” its behavior and course. At least, that’s what he’ll claim afterward.
What if he gets a deal? Maximally or ideally, its terms should include no nuclear programs, no ballistic missiles, no support for proxies, no support for Russia in Ukraine, and co-operation with the United States on oil exports to China. Minimally, its terms should be no nuclear programs. No one can or should trust Iran to keep to any agreement. There will have to be intrusive safeguards.
What does Iran get? An end to the bombing. Maybe some sanctions relief depending on how much they change their behavior. International inspectors all over the nuclear sites (broadly conceived) like a duck on a June-bug.
What if Trump can’t get a deal? Then finish up the bombing to clear the Straits of Hormuz, declare victory, and leave. If Iran refuses a deal, the US can always come back and “mow the grass” (as Israel puts it) whenever necessary. That’s cold, but a viable policy.
For some time now, the United States has faced a loose coalition[8] of enemies: Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. American forces could defeat most (and maybe all) of them in a straight fight. A war with any one of them would risk bringing all of them into a war, like a pack of wolves ganging up on an elk. The United States might have a hard time defeating all of them in a general war without going nuclear somewhere. Now one of the coalition has been badly battered. What are the larger implications of this short, brutal war?
[1] Guy waving his arm at the back of the room: “What about all the gruesome stuff in the Old Testament? That bastard Saul, for example.”
[2] See the amusing anecdote about white silk socks in Robert Graves, Good-bye to All That.
[3] Some are monarchical, some are republican; some are secular, some are Islamist. All have secret police, information-control, and a “deep state” network of public and private power; sometimes they have a false-front and rigged representation of “the People.”
[4] See: the Arab wars against Israel, the Iran-Iraq War, “Operation Desert Storm.”
[5] After humiliating defeat at the hands of Israel in the “Six Days War” of 1967, the Egyptians asked the Soviet Union for help. Russian military advisers told the leaders of the Egyptian Army to change course “or we are someone else finding to do job you are not doing, and you are maybe misfortunately getting shot, Da?” The Egyptian Army then performed well in the October 1973 war. After a while Henry Kissinger worked his magic and Egypt gave the Russkies the boot. Egyptian soldiers then slid back into the comfortable old ways.
[6] So did many other Republicans. That’s why the agreement never became a treaty ratified by the Senate.
[7] There’s been much discussion of the IRGC and the Basij paramilitaries as supporters of the regime. There hasn’t been as much discussion of the Iranian Army. If Israel does enough damage to the IRGC and the Basij, the army might be in a position to impose a change of course on the regime.
[8] Germany, Italy, and Japan fought the Second World War as a loose coalition. They all lost badly in the end. They caused a lot of problems before they surrendered.
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