An Informed Discussion of the Blockade.

You may be satisfied with the discussion of the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz as presented in the media. If so, great! Want to buy a bridge? Or you may want to know more.

The podcast “School of War” is–so I judge–a right-of-center take on current small wars and demolition. It has the very great virtue of hosting guests who know a lot more than the average person about military and diplomatic affairs. The host is Aaron MacLean. Former Marine officer deployed to Afghanistan; former instructor at the Naval Academy, former staffer for Senator Tom Cotton; book-worm (and so am I). He’s no idiot and his estimable goal is to get his guests to talk about what they know.

He’s branched-out to Youtube. The episode linked here is the second of two recent broadcasts. First one is really good as well. This one will grant you access to a “how it works and what could go right/wrong” take by a knowledgeable person

How Trump’s Blockade of Iran Actually Works with Sal Mercogliano – YouTube

Our War with Iran.

            There were reasonable arguments both for and against war with Iran.[1]  President Donald Trump chose war.  Trump has not offered a clear and persuasive argument for the war.  As is his wont, he has put forth multiple justifications wrapped in clouds of hyperbole.  It has been the same with his evaluations of how the war is progressing.[2] 

The war started well: a decapitation offensive killed much of the senior military, security, and political leadership; the air defenses were largely degraded; ballistic missiles, their launchers, and weapons stockpiles were hit very hard; and the Iranian Navy (such as it was) has been largely destroyed. 

Then, to the apparent surprise of President Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hogwallop, Iran did not surrender.[3]  Pre-war commentary often said that the original widespread revolutionary fervor among Iranians had long since waned.  Now, the ranks of the government were supposed to be filled with careerists mimicking enthusiasm in order to get and keep jobs.  Surely, someone would step up to say “enough is enough!”  This evaluation may have misread the situation.[4]  Rather like the “Black Knight” in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail,” Iran refused to concede defeat.  It kept on launching such missiles and drones as it still possessed at its oil-producing neighbors.  It declared the Straits of Hormuz closed.  Perhaps they can’t make good on that decree, but who wants to be on an oil tanker or natural gas container ship if they can?  So, the Strait is mostly closed. 

A two-week cease-fire has been agreed.  The terms are murky and disputed.  In all likelihood, the Iranian government is lying.  In the past, they have denounced as forgeries documents that they signed days before.  Peace-talks were held, but failed.  Now the United States has blockaded Iranian shipping.  Other preparations are undoubtedly underway as the cease-fire clock ticks down.  These preparations may even involve “boots on the ground.” 

            This is not an excuse for quitting on the war that has begun.  Better to see it through.  If we quit now, take some phony deal just to have an “off-ramp,” bad things will happen. 

            We will have run through a lot of our limited stock of munitions for absolutely no gain.  We will be less ready for whatever fight comes next. 

            Our enemies and our friends will see our weakness.  That weakness is in military power, but also in will.  Does anyone really want Iran to obtain nuclear weapons?  Does anyone really want China to seize Taiwan?  Does anyone really want Russia to defeat Ukraine?  Does anyone really want ALL of these things to happen, pretty much simultaneously? 

            Donald Trump started this war on his own, but he can’t be allowed to end it short of victory.  This is America’s war; this is OUR war. 


[1] See: The Argument for War with Iran. | waroftheworldblog ; and The Argument Against War with Iran. | waroftheworldblog 

[2] Not to excuse Trump’s “style,” but after ten years of this kind of thing, you’d think people would accept that it’s how he talks.  Discount the guff and focus on what is consistent.  Counting up all the times that he has over-stated, offended, or lied doesn’t get us anywhere.  Conservative commentators have argued that Progressives often confuse rhetoric with reality.  Acting like Trump is no solution to Trump. 

[3] Neither did Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan when they found themselves in an even worse situation in 1945. 

[4] Possibly, such a misreading could have been based on psychological “projection.” 

JMO 1.

            Both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times have been squalling for years about how China controls most of the “rare earth” metals that are vital for much modern technology.[1]  Also, they are hard to find and difficult to develop in the United States.  That is “We’re doomed!”  Then, turns out that there are important “rare earth” sources in…wait for it…Greenland and Ukraine.  President Donald Trump has made plain his determination to get a tight grip on both.  “Oh what an awful man he is, trying to insure the well-being of the United States in such a rude fashion!” 

            The same religious-fanatic dictator has been ruling Iran for 35 years.  The elections are rigged to keep out any representative of “liberal” opinion; there’s a big political prison into which prisoners disappear and from which they rarely emerge; the morality police can get away with murdering girls who don’t wear the hijab properly; corruption is rife and the upper ranks of society live well; living standards low for most people, in large part because the country spends a lot of its oil wealth on weapons systems and on the Revolutionary Guards Corps; the regime built a “ring of fire” around Israel not as a defense against the “Zionist entity,” but as the front line in Iran’s drive to revolutionize the Middle East on its own model; and the regime is close to producing nuclear weapons.[2]  Iran also is allied with Russia, China, and North Korea.  Lots of Iranians are unhappy with their masters.  Help them pressure the regime for meaningful change. 

            America built its economic power behind a high tariff wall in the later 19th and early 20th Century.  Yes, that kept prices for consumers high.  It also created a huge number of blue collar and white collar jobs; vast national wealth, and the industrial base that decided the outcomes of both World Wars and the Cold War.  After the Second World War, the United States adopted a free trade policy as a way to restore prosperity to a war-ravaged world.  Part of this plan involved accepting higher tariffs on American imports than the Americans imposed on their trading partners.[3]  The US was big, rich, and easy, while everywhere else was a pile of rubble. 

By the end of the Cold War (c. 1990), these conditions no longer applied.  It might have been a good time to renegotiate trade relations with many countries.  “But you didn’t do that, did you?”[4]  Instead, we doubled down by admitting China to the World Trade Organization (WTO).  Cheap consumer goods flooded the country, wrecking many industrial areas of the United States.  In the first Trump administration, the president wall-papered China with tariffs and harassed Huawei, allegedly because it posed a security threat.  First, enlightened opinion deprecated this departure from “norms.”  Then Biden continued them.  Now President Trump is hammering everyone with tariffs.  People say “well the tariffs on China are OK, but he’s also hitting our friends and allies.”  Give it a couple of years and everybody will be on-board, just like before. 

Trump’s cabinet is mostly made up of clowns.  The president is pursuing real policies along with the rest of his nonsense.  This is what you get when the Establishment abdicates on solving big problems for decades. 


[1] Take a gander at Rare Earths – The New York Times 

[2] Now big chunks of Iran’s client states are reeling from hard blows struck by Israel. 

[3] The US also accepted Canada adjusting the exchange rate to make American goods expensive in Canada and Canadian goods cheap in the US. 

[4] Looking at you, William Jefferson Clinton.  We should have re-elected George H. W. Bush.