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American Public Opinion in October 2024.

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            NBC/Telemundo polls[1] revealed a shift in the political preference among Latino voters. 

            In 2016, 69 percent of Latino voters supported Hillary Clinton; 19 percent favored Donald Trump. 

            In 2020, 63 percent of Latino voters chose Joe Biden; 27 percent voted for Donald Trump. 

            In 2024, just before the election, 54 percent of Latino voters favored Kamala Harris; 40 percent favored Donald Trump. 

            That is an almost 22 percent drop for the Democratic candidate in eight years, with 60 percent of it coming in the last four years.  Why the decline? 

When she ran—briefly—in the Democratic presidential primary in 2019, Harris favored decriminalizing illegal border crossings.[2]  Subsequently, under the Biden-Harris administration, President Biden ordered an end to President Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” policy for those seeking asylum.  Illegal immigration tripled.  Then the failure of the Biden-Harris administration’s “Remain in Texas” policy brought home to many northern Democratic cities the realities of such huge, unregulated immigration.  Immigration control became a powerful Republican issue. 

That explains the careening U-turn taken by Kamala Harris.  She began walloping Trump for having squelched a bipartisan border bill for political reasons when Democrats had only adopted the policy recently for political reasons. 

It doesn’t automatically explain why the Latino vote shifted.  That shift may or may not be related to the immigration question.  There are 50.4 million Latinos in states on the border with Mexico.  They would have seen all the same things that drove many Anglos wild. 

Perhaps some are angry about inflation, which hits lower-income people harder than it does higher-income people.[3]  Perhaps some are running small businesses and perceive Democrats as anti-Business, and not merely anti-Big Business.  Perhaps some are socially conservative and are repelled by the Democrat embrace of non-binarity. 

Whatever the cause, it is an important chunk of the Democratic coalition to cast away. 

            In October 2024, an Economist/YouGov poll assessed the state of American opinion on the Israel-Palestinian conflict.[4] 

            Overall, 33 percent sympathized more with Israel, 19 percent more with the Palestinians, and 24 percent with both sides equally.  (Which totals 76 percent.  What about the other 24 percent?  “Don’t Know” or “A plague on both their houses”?)  Under that umbrella huddle different groups.  Only 14 percent of Democrats sympathize more with Israelis, while 33 percent sympathize more with the Palestinians.  (That’s 47 percent.  So the other 53 percent sympathize with both sides equally or Don’t Care?)  In contrast, 63 percent of Republicans express more sympathy for Israelis than for Palestinians, while a mere 5 percent sympathize more with Palestinians.  (Again, that’s 68 percent. Do the other 32 percent sympathize equally or just don’t care?)  On the issue of supplying military aid[5] to Israel, 38 percent say that it should be reduced; 18 percent support increasing it; and 25 percent say that it’s fine where it is.  (Again, the figures total 81 percent, so 19 percent probably fall into “Don’t Know.”)  Support for military assistance at or above the current level totals 43 percent, while support for cutting it is at 38 percent.  That’s close to a tipping point. 

            So, 63 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of Democrats sympathize more with Israel than with the Palestinians.  At the same time, support for maintaining military aid at the current level or for raising it totals only 43 percent.  That is a lot lower level than the totals for feeling sympathy for Israel.  Even among their most committed American supporters, the Israelis are encountering doubts about their wars in Gaza and Lebanon.  Probably these doubts are rooted less in the necessity of war than in the manner of its conduct. 

Do Israeli care any longer if they alienate the Americans?  I haven’t seen polling on that. 

[1] “Poll Watch,” The Week, 11 October 2024, p. 17. 

[2] “Harris: A sharp turn on immigration,” The Week, 11 October 2024, p. 16. 

[3] Donald Trump is said to appeal to “low-information” voters.  The disparate impact of inflation among income groups could leave the better-educated and better-off Democrats as the “low information voters” when it comes to economic hardship.  To turn around Governor Tim Walz’s jab at the ever-obnoxious Elon Musk, “He’s a fat guy with a government job; what does he know about hardship?” 

[4] Poll Watch,” The Week, 18 October 2024

[5] You know, stuff that goes “BOOM!” and then buildings fall down. 

Prologue to a Possible Second Term of the Addams Administration 3.

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            NB: I’m writing this as if I don’t know how yesterday’s election turned out. 

            As 5 November 2024 loomed, nothing seemed to shift the balance of voters.  A Wall Street Journal poll reported that Donald Trump led Kamala Harris 51 to 47 percent nation-wide; a New York Times poll showed them even in the seven “battleground” states.  This wasn’t a simple difference of opinion.  Another poll reported that 87 percent of respondents believed that “America will suffer permanent damage if their candidate loses.” 

In light of the themes of speeches used by the two candidates and their parties in this election season, it isn’t hard to see why so many people are worried.  In the sprint to the finish, neither candidate did anything to lessen voter fears.  Kamala Harris said that Donald Trump is a “petty tyrant”; that he is “unstable, consumed with grievance, obsessed with revenge, and out for unchecked power”; and that electing him President will produce an America “ruled by chaos and division.”[1]  For his part, Trump lambasted the Democratic Party as “a crooked, malicious, leftist machine” and “the most sinister and corrupt forces on Earth.” 

Whichever one of them wins, the judiciary is going to be re-made.  Asked straight-out about expanding the Supreme Court to outvote the current conservative majority, Harris refused to disavow such a plan.  If Trump wins, any vacancies in the next four years will be filled with Federalist Society-vetted people like Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Gorsuch. 

            Much will depend on the outcome of races further down the ballot, especially the Senate.  If one party gains both the White House and the Senate, it will grasp Executive and Judicial appointments for at least two years.  In Senate races (where one-third of the Senate stands for election every two years), Republicans have the easier path to control.  Flipping one seat, would give them a tie.  The Vice President would be the deciding vote on some legislation, but the filibuster would block most legislation.[2]  If the Republicans win two or more seats, then they would have the majority and could either block all Democratic legislation (if Harris wins) or push through some legislation if Trump wins.  (The American system is murkier and more contingent than are European parliamentary systems.)  Republicans appeared confident that they could win seats in West Virginia and Montana; they hoped to win seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.  Pollsters agreed that these hopes were reasonable.  Control of the House of Representatives appeared up for grabs.[3] 

            Fear haunted the Democrats.  Democrats warn that an election that gives Republicans control of both houses of Congress and the Executive Branch, combined with a Republican super-majority on the Supreme Court, will allow the Republicans to launch a sweeping remodeling of American government.  Then, many Democrats have given voice to their fear of violence from Trump’s supporters if he loses.  Stoked by four years of accusations of a stolen election, it might be much worse than on 6 January 2021.  What if he wins?  What if he wins both the popular vote and in the Electoral College?  How will Democrats absorb such a stinging rejection of all their warnings? 

[1] “Harris warns of ‘petty tyrant’ Trump in closing pitch,” The Week, 8 November 2024, p. 4.  Harris also proclaimed that “We have to stop pointing fingers and start locking arms.” 

[2] Harris has already called for an end to the filibuster in the Senate. 

[3] “Republicans hold edge in race to control Congress,” The Week, 8 November 2024, p. 5. 

Prologue to a Possible Second Addams Administration 1.

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In early October 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris each could smell victory.[1]  A New York Times/Siena College poll had Harris leading Trump nationally 49 to 46 percent.  More importantly, an average of polls in the seven “battleground” states that will decide the election in the Electoral College showed the rivals within 1-2 points of each other.  Each was ahead in three states and they were tied in Pennsylvania.[2] 

Remarkably, nothing has seemed to shift the basic balance of forces for the last several months.  It appears that Americans have largely decided for which candidate they will vote if Election Day ever gets here.  Faced with the need to just grind it out for another month, the candidates distilled their campaign messages for the final kick. 

For Trump it boiled down to Courage and Anger.  He returned to Butler, Pennsylvania, where he had narrowly survived an assassination attempt in July.  Then, as the Secret Service agents had belatedly tried to drag him to safety,[3] he had instinctively yelled to the crowd “Fight!  Fight!  Fight!”  Many in his audience now sported T-shirts bearing the same words.[4]  In Butler, he warned of the “enemy from within.”  Two days later, in Wisconsin, he warned that a victory by Kamala Harris would mean that “The country won’t be the U.S. any longer.” 

For Harris, it boiled down to Fear and Promises.  She arranged a series of appearances with friendly interviewers that allowed her to speak directly to her target audiences.[5]  In one appearance, Harris said that she wanted to extend Medicare to pay for long-term home care for senior citizens, but stated that “there is not a thing” that she would have done differently from President Biden over the last four years.  She also agreed to an interview on “Sixty Minutes.”  In the “Sixty Minutes” interview Harris skipped past Russia and China to name Iran as the “greatest adversary” of the United States, and judged that Vladimir Putin “would be sitting in Kyiv right  now” if  Donald Trump had been president instead of Joe Biden. 

            Neither the media nor the campaign staffs felt much joy from these approaches.  They roundly denounced the former president’s refusal to stay on a conventional political message (inflation, illegal immigration) while avoiding incitements to violence and personal denigration of his opponents.  They roundly denounced the Vice President’s penchant for soft-ball media appearances and her relatively thin schedule of public appearances.  Too many voters say that they don’t really know her.  To be fair, too many voters say they know Trump all too well. 

[1] “Harris, Trump neck and neck in race’s final month,” The Week, 18 October 2024, p. 4. 

[2] Which explains why I’m being bombarded with text messages and phone calls while I’m trying to watch the evening news.  Note to Self: This is NOT the place for a tirade about “The David Muir Cartoon Show.” 

[3] Department of Justice Inspector General investigated the FISA warrants issued to allow communication intercepts of one of Donald Trump’s campaign advisors in 2016.  He found no “documentary or testimonial evidence” of wrong-doing.  All he found were a series of inexplicable “errors” made by very experienced investigative personnel that all tended in one direction.  The same appears to be the case with the apses made by the Secret Service detail assigned to protect Trump.  OTOH, there’s a legitimate case that the existing Secret Service is inadequately funded and staffed to meet its responsibilities.  Many complain that they are over-worked and under-paid.  As a result, nearly 20 percent of Secret Service employees left in fiscal 2022 and 2023.  For a quick, well-informed take on systemic problems of the Secret Service, see: In ‘Zero Fail,’ Carol Leonnig Says Secret Service Is Underfunded And Overworked : NPR 

[4] Comically, many of the shirts are manufactured by the Chinese consumer goods giant Temu.  Pattern – Temu 

[5] Stephen Colbert, Howard Stern, “The View,” and “Call Her Daddy.”