Tag Archives: Donald Trump

Epstein first and last time.

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            Born into a “working-class” family in Brooklyn, Jeffrey Epstein (1953-2019) escaped from that social identity.[1]  He went to college, but never finished; he got a job teaching at an elite prep school in New York, but got the boot for “poor performance” after two years; one of the parents saw something in the young math teacher and hired him at an investment bank, but in 1980, he was “asked to leave;” and in 1981 he started his own business managing rich peoples’ money.  So far, this looks like failing upward on a grand scale. 

            Epstein both enjoyed and was very skilled at networking.  Patrons and customers included Alan “Ace” Greenberg, Leon Black, and Leslie Wexner.  Social contacts included Bill Gates, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump (long before he became president), among other luminaries.  Money and power (and invulnerability) often run together in modern America. 

            Along the way, Epstein encountered Ghislaine Maxwell.[2]  She became his long-time companion.  She also facilitated his pursuit of psychologically-vulnerable girls.  Many were in the 14-17 years-old range.  He had a home in Manhattan, another in Palm Beach, an island in the U.S. Virgin Islands, a private jet, and a glittering life-style.  Those assets helped dazzle the girls.  Epstein allegedly shared the girls with some of his friends. 

            Certainly by the early 1990s, Epstein was exploiting young women.  He seems to have exercised a measure of discretion.  Then, in 2005, the Palm Beach police received a report that Epstein had assaulted a 14-year-old girl.  The police investigated and found many more cases, the FBI became involved (crossing state lines), but prosecutors settled for a plea bargain in 2008.  Epstein pleaded guilty to soliciting prostitution in return for an 18-month sentence served under conditions that would have made a Mafia don envious.  In addition, the FBI halted its investigation and granted immunity to “any potential co-conspirators.” 

            No sooner was Epstein out of the slammer than he was back to his old tricks.  Angry victims then started filing civil law-suits.[3]  The Miami Herald got wind of the story and ran an expose in 2018; in July 2019, federal officers arrested Epstein.  Prosecutors charged him with sex-trafficking, which is a lot more serious than soliciting prostitution.  Confined to the federal Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, Epstein committed suicide on the night of 9-10 August 2019.  All this barely scratches the surface of the story. 

            It’s a lurid story, but why is there so much continuing interest in it?  First of all, Epstein had claimed that he had dirt on important people.[4]  Speculation on the nature of that “dirt” centers on sex with minors and the use of illegal drugs.  Speculation on the collection of that “dirt” centers on reports of hidden cameras and sound systems. 

            Second, the circumstances of his suicide stink.  The night of Epstein’s death, his cell-mate was transferred; the two guards failed to make prescribed welfare checks every 30 minutes and later tried to doctor the records; and both cameras outside his cell malfunctioned.[5] 

            Putting One and Two together, some people believe that Epstein was “suicided” to keep him from talking to investigators or from the witness stand.  The FBI searched his homes and offices, carting away masses of material.  Much of that material has not been released. 

First, what’s in the “Epstein files”?  All told, the evidence gathered by the FBI totals “300 gigabytes of data, plus other media.”  At a minimum, they contain the flight logs for his plane (listing passengers, departure point and destinations, and dates of travel); his “black books” (apparently containing names of contacts for a guy who made it his business to know a lot of people); and his court records.  It seems to have been supposed that they would also include secret recordings of people in compromising situations.  However, on 27 July 2025, the Department of Justice announced that “no credible evidence [has been] found that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals as part of his actions. We did not uncover evidence that could predicate [i.e. serve as a justification for] an investigation against uncharged third parties.” 

            Second, who’s named in the “Epstein list”?  All sorts of people.  He had little black books that listed the names of people with whom he had a connection, or sometimes not.[6]  In short, no log of who did what with whom. 

            Conspiracy theories sprang up almost immediately after Epstein’s death.[7]  The flash reaction to the news of Epstein’s death showed that 42 percent of Americans believed that he had been killed to shut him up and another 29 percent didn’t want to rush to judgement.  The belief that Epstein had been murdered soon reached a majority.[8]  The conspiracy theories probably piggy-backed on the earlier “PizzaGate” conspiracy theory.[9] 

Then attention focused on the seized materials.  When running for president in 2024, Donald Trump promised to release the “Epstein files” and the “Epstein list” if elected.[10]  Then he didn’t.  This provoked a very strong reaction among some of those who had supported him. 

            Was there a conspiracy?  Well, apparently both the guards are still alive.  No unsolved hit-and-run, no “I never knew he was using drugs” fentanyl in the tuna salad, no heart attack during a routine colonoscopy, no botched stick-up in a Mom-and-Pop that ended in gunfire.  No tying-off loose ends.[11] 

            The take-aways here are two-fold.  On the one hand, many people believe that at least some rich or politically powerful people indulge in depraved behavior.  On the other hand, many people believe that “they all stick together to protect each other.”  Again, the belief that money, power, and invulnerability run together has a strong hold on many Americans.  This can’t be good for American democracy.  But how to fix it?  How to retore trust? 

[1] “Jeffrey Epstein’s secrets,” The Week, 5 September 2025, p. 11. 

[2] See: Ghislaine Maxwell – Wikipedia.  On her father, Robert Maxwell, see: Robert Maxwell – Wikipedia. 

[3] Virginia Roberts Giuffre (2015); Sarah Ransome (2017). 

[4] James B. Stewart, “The Day Jeffrey Epstein Told Me He Had Dirt on Powerful People,” NYT, August 12, 2019. 

[5] Ali Watkins, Danielle Ivory, Christina Goldbaum, “Inmate 76318-054: The Last Days of Jeffrey Epstein, NYT, 17 August 2019. 

[6] An annotated-by-journalists version of one such book can be read here.  https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/jeffrey-epstein-high-society-contacts.html 

[7] Michael Gold, Jonah Engel Bromwich, “Epstein Conspiracies: De Blasio, and Others Join Speculation,” NYT, August 12, 2019; “New poll suggests 45% of Americans believe Jeffrey Epstein conspiracy theories,” Yahoo News, 26 November 2019. 

[8] “Americans Say Murder More Likely Than Suicide in Epstein Case,” Rasmussen Reports, 14 August 2019; “Most Now Think Epstein Was Murdered,” Rasmussen Reports, 9 January 2020.  

[9] Cecilia Kang and Sheera Frenkel, “’PizzaGate’ Conspiracy Theory Thrives Anew in the TikTok Era,” NYT, 27 June 2020. 

[10] Alexandra Hutzler, “What Trump has said about Jeffrey Epstein over the years, including on 2024 campaign trail, ABC News, July 17, 2025. 

[11] The conspiratorial mindset spread by Hollywood films: Shooter (4/8) Movie CLIP – Mister Rate’s Advice (2007) HD 

American Opinion on the Deportations in Summer 2025.

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The country is deeply divided over the Trump administration’s treatment of illegal immigrants.  There doesn’t seem to be much resistance this time to closing down the Southern border.  The gap opens over what to do about the illegal immigrants who entered the country before the border got shut down.  Do all or most of them get to stay?  Do they all get deported without regard to how long they’ve been here or what role they now play in the economy? 

In June 2025, 52 percent of Americans supported deporting illegal immigrants.  The partisan divide was stark, but also revealing on minority positions within each party.  Those approving deportations included 90 percent of Republicans, but also 20 percent of Democrats.[1]  

Almost as many Americans (49 percent) said that President Trump had crossed some boundary of reasonableness in his sweeps and arrests. Thus, 50 percent of Americans disapproved of President Trump dispatching National Guard and even Marine units to Los Angeles to cow disorderly demonstrators protesting Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers conducting sweeps for illegal immigrants.  Only a third (35 percent) of Americans approved of the deployment of military forces to deal with a civil policing matter.[2]    

If you desire the end, then you must desire also the means.  Either essentially half of Americans desire the end, but don’t want the reality of it shoved in their faces OR their desire for the end is purely rhetorical.  Hard to tell which is true.  Some of each?  Apparently, President Trump desires the end and accepts—even relishes–the means. 

The Republican opponents of deportation may largely represent businesses that depend upon illegal immigrants because many Americans have never known what hard work for low pay is really like.  The Democratic supporters of deportations provide a warning shot—if any more were needed after the election—of the fragility of the party’s coalition.

The 80 percent of Democrats who oppose deporting illegal immigrants doubtless have a variety of motives.  The illegals toil in vital sectors of the economy where the Native-born don’t want to work.  The illegals are in flight from Hell-hole countries (of which there are a great many).  They are just trying to make better lives.  Immigration is what made America great!  Ideally, there shouldn’t be any immigration restrictions at all, except for identifiable terrorists and criminals.  Broadly, on many issues, Democrats are cosmopolitans (citizens of the world and concerned for their fellow citizens) and Republicans are parochial (American citizens and concerned for their fellow citizens).  It will be difficult to reconcile those two positions. 

            In September 2025, the Supreme Court lifted a stay by a federal judge in California that had stopped Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents from using ethnicity and language as partial grounds for stopping and detaining suspected illegal immigrants.  Some ethnicity and language communities in California “braced” for impact.  One apologist for the government argued that “[M]ost undocumented migrants in Los Angeles are Latino…”[3]  Fine, but most Latinos in Los Angeles are not “undocumented migrants.”  They still are subject to stops and detentions and “show us your papers.” 

[1] Reuters/Ipsos poll reported in “Poll Watch,” The Week, 27 June 2025, p. 17.

[2] Reuters/Ipsos poll reported in “Poll Watch,” The Week, 27 June 2025, p. 17. 

[3] The Week’s summary of Andrew McCarthy’s statement in National Review, in “Trump sends ICE into Chicago and Boston,” The Week, 19 September 2025, p. 4. 

Some American Opinion in Summer 2025.

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            In late June 2025, 80 percent of Americans supported using vaccines to prevent diseases.  “Only” 20 percent opposed vaccines.[1]  Twenty percent still seems like a lot.  In September 2025, the figures remained essentially the same: 78 percent versus 22 percent.  In the September 2025 poll, the spectrum ranged from 93 percent of Democrats to 72 percent of Independents to 67 percent of Republicans.[2]  That’s a 26-point difference between Democrats and Republicans, so a yawning crevasse between the two major parties. 

On the one hand, the great majority of Americans approve of vaccines, regardless of party.  Arguably, RFK, Jr.’s crusade against vaccines is going to get him canned after the November 2026 mid-terms, if not before.  On the other hand, there’s a 21-point differences between Democrats and Independents as well as a 5-point difference between Independents and Republicans.  In short, Democrats ae near-unanimous on vaccines. Independents and Republics have a lot more unbelievers.  So, there’s the Democrats and there’s everyone else. 

            Since 2001 we’ve had the dot.com bubble, the housing bubble, the Perdue Pharma Oxycontin scandal, and the “China Shock.”   In 2021, 60 percent of Americans still had a favorable view of Capitalism.  Since then we’ve had the economic upheavals caused by Covid, AI, and a nasty bout of inflation.  Today only 54 percent view Capitalism favorably.[3]  That means that 46 percent disapprove of Capitalism or Don’t Know what they think. 

As with vaccines, there is a marked partisan divide.  Almost three-quarters (74 percent) of Republican have a favorable view of Capitalism, while only 42 percent of Democrats have a favorable view.  What’s the theoretical alternative to Capitalism?  Socialism!  Well, 57 percent of Americans disapprove of Socialism,[4] compared with 39 percent who take a favorable view. 

            Playing with the numbers a bit.  A little over half (54 percent) take a favorable view of Capitalism and almost the same share (57 percent) disapprove of Socialism. So, that’s one block.  It is largely Republican.  At the same time, 26 percent of Republicans either don’t approve of Capitalism (at least in its present form) or Don’t Know what they think.  How can you be a Republican and NOT approve of Capitalism?  Well, you could be a Republican for cultural issues that are more important to you than the economic system.  Say, on abortion or illegal immigration. 

In contrast, 42 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of Capitalism, while 58 percent have an unfavorable view or Don’t Know what they think.  It may be reasonable to conjecture that there is a big overlap between that 58 percent of Democrats who don’t have a favorable view of Capitalism and the 39 percent of Americans who have a favorable view of Socialism.  That leaves 19 percent who don’t approve of either Capitalism or Socialism. 

            It may mean that many Democrats and some Republicans favor a “reformed” Capitalism, rather than its present form.  That doesn’t mean that they support Socialism.  

            In any event, vaccines are more credible than is Capitalism.  You don’t see that much in the news.  Bound to be younger people who believe in Socialism.  The Future belongs to Them. 

[1] NBC News poll, reported in “Poll Watch,” The Week, 4-11 July 2025, p. 17. 

[2] NBC News poll reported in “Poll Watch,” The Week, 19 September 2025. 

[3] Gallup poll reported in “Poll Watch,” The Week, 19 September 2025, p. 17. 

[4] NO, that doesn’t mean that people who live in New York City aren’t Americans. 

Tell-Some.

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            Reports of a new book on the presidency of Joe Biden have begun to appear.  It focuses on the troubled man revealed for all the world to see in his catastrophic debate with Donald Trump.[1]  Biden had been 77 years old when he finally was inaugurated in January 2021.  He would have been 82 at his second inauguration.  The job of President of the United States would be daunting to almost anyone at any age.  To be president in old age would be a much greater challenge.  The authors have called upon a host of—mostly anonymous—sources to document the failing powers of an ambitious man of modest abilities.[2] 

            Even during the original 2020 campaign, Biden had begun to forget the names of people he had known for a long time.  His condition worsened as his term progressed.  He confused one person with another.  In one case with nasty implications, he confused Xavier Becerra, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, with Alejandro Mayorkas, the Secretary of Homeland Security.[3]  Cabinet meetings had to work from a written script.  Concern went as far as speculation about the president’s possible need for a wheelchair during a second term. 

            Apparently, those around Biden recognized his advancing physical and mental fragility.  Still, no one took it up with the president himself or, in any forceful way, with those closest to him.  The silence was widespread.  “No Democrats in the White House or on Capitol Hill raised any doubts, either privately with the president or publicly, about Biden’s second run” say the authors of the book. 

            Washington is a gossipy town filled with predatory people.  If the President makes the usual appearances and meets with donors, Congress people, Senators, the people from the CIA doing the daily Presidential brief, then these people would spot his problems the way a leopard spots a limp.  If the President disappears from all the usual appearances and communicates only through his closest staff, then that would be noticed as well.  Questions would arise. 

            The heightened attention and more frequent appearances running with the re-election campaign brought Biden’s limitations to the attention of many more people.  Democratic congressmen and donors (like George Clooney) were alarmed by the wreck of a man they now encountered.  People from the Obama presidency (William Daley, David Plouffe) tried to line up alternatives to Biden, to no avail.  Were Washington insiders just fooled?  Did they hope for the best in the election with the expectation that Biden would die or be removed in a second term? 

Most likely, many people hope to not be held to account for their parts in foisting off a dotard on the American people.[4]  Instead, “Dr. Jill and the Inner Circle” are being made into the goats.  The book provides a good deal of material for people to use against Jill Biden.  She is described as a “fierce advocate for her husband.”    She “grew more involved in his decision-making as he grew older.”  OK, which decisions?  “Just” re-election?  Foreign policy? 

[1] The book is Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again (due out on 20 May 2025).  The book is discussed in Reid J. Epstein, “Book Promises New Data on Biden’s Mental Decline,” NYT, 15 May 2025. 

[2] Unless you think that keeping Robert Bork off the Supreme Court and getting Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court is a positive record. 

[3] On the upside, he didn’t confuse either one of them with Janet Yellen, the Secretary of the Treasury. 

[4] It’s impossible to know, at present, if this operation ran only once (before the 2024 election) or if it ran twice (before the 2020 election as well). 

Further Thoughts on the Alien Enemies Act.

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            The Alien Enemies Act is constitutional.  The Supreme Court found it so in a 1948 case when it endorsed the order of a lower court that a German-American Nazi had to leave the country.  Trump’s use of the law to justify deportations seems illegitimate.  Still, the commentary on it seems equally revealing. 

            “It’s an 18th century law…”[1]  “We cannot allow antiquated laws to continue enabling discriminatory practices.”[2]  Well, both the Constitution and the Bill of Rights are creations of the 18th Century.  Marbury v. Madison and the Emancipation Proclamation are products of the 19th Century.  So, age is no issue if you like the results, but it is an issue if you don’t like them?    This argument is a flight from honest thought. 

            “No one has tried to argue that that invasion or predatory incursion language could be used in any context other than a conventional war.”[3]  Except that is just what Trump has argued, backed by his Department of Justice.  The Supreme Court has neither rejected nor affirmed Trump’s argument.[4]  Does the author mean to say that the argument is illegitimate because it is not hallowed by time?  This is the opposite of the previous argument.  Furthermore, Plessy v. Ferguson stood as “settled law” for almost a century.  So, hallowed by time. 

            “Historian Joseph Ellis called support for the Alien Enemies Act “unquestionably the biggest blunder” of Adams’ presidency.”[5]  So, an expert attacks the law as wrong right from the beginning.  We defer (or should defer) to expert opinion on the efficacy of vaccines.  Therefore, we should defer to expert opinion on the foolishness of a law passed in the many days ago?  JMO, but Adams’ “biggest blunder” was his support for the Sedition Act, which led to the prosecution of a number of Democratic-Republican journalists.  The Sedition Act was hard to pass because it raised so many doubts even among Federalists.  The application of the Act against political rivals aroused opposition to the Federalists.  John Adams became the first one-term president as a result.  It was repealed after the election of Thomas Jefferson in 1800.  In contrast, Presidents running declared wars against foreign powers have found it a useful tool.  During the Biden administration, bills to repeal the act were introduced in Congress in 2021 and 2023.  Neither bill made it out of committee.[6]  In both cases, the Democrats held the majority in the relevant chamber.  Some Democrats saw utility in keeping the Act.  Is this a case of a respected expert bending his analysis to oppose Trump? 

            That leaves the question of whether Trump’s use of the law in these circumstances is constitutional.  Currently, “the Supreme Court has limited the deportations without ruling on whether Trump may invoke the act.”[7]  So Trump’s actions may yet turn out to be constitutional.    

In the 1948 case, four Justices dissented, arguing that “Due process does not perish when war comes.”[8]  This is a complicated issue, but the one to fight on.  The rest is anti-Trump fluff. 

[1] “The Alien Enemies Act,” The Week, 9 May 2025, p. 11. 

[2] Representative Ilhan Omar (D-Minnesota), quoted in “A push for repeal,” The Week, 9 May 2025, p. 11. 

[3] Georgetown law professor Steve Vladeck, quoted in “The Alien Enemies Act,” The Week, 9 May 2025, p. 11. 

[4] “Supreme Court allows deportations to El Salvador,” The Week, 18 April 2025, p. 5.

[5] Ellis quoted in “The Alien Enemies Act,” The Week, 9 May 2025, p. 11. 

[6] “A push for repeal,” The Week, 9 May 2025, p. 11. 

[7] “The Alien Enemies Act,” The Week, 9 May 2025, p. 11. 

[8] Quoted in “The Alien Enemies Act,” The Week, 9 May 2025, p. 11. 

Diary of the Second Addams Administration 19.

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            I think that Donald Trump is a bad man with some good ideas and some bad ideas.  He seems prone to stick with the bad ideas (and bad people, like Pete Hogwallop[1]) while rabbiting around on the good ideas.  He may well represent a threat to Democracy.  Or not.  His method, much more this term than in the first, is the bull-rush.  Doing “everything, everywhere, all at once.”  Testing, even blowing through, established limits of all sorts; moving very fast and keeping it up across time; forcing changes that may or may not endure.  He’s a wrecking ball and a disruptor, not a builder. 

            Trump also is not a “politician.”  In contemporary America, a “politician” is a career public employee who gets his/her/their contract renewed every 2, 4, or 6 years by playing it safe within the terms of their own constituency.  Most of them rise by following what the Romans used to call the “cursus honorum” (“course of honors/offices”).[2]  They’re committed to never doing anything “risky.”[3]  Trump thinks that these people are Nithings.[4]  He’s pretty much right about most of them.[5] 

            But what is the alternative to Trump?  Leave things the way they were?  Keep going along the same lines that produced gigantic deficits and a national debt that seems likely to end in default?  A creeping expansion of the Executive Branch and rule through regulation, executive orders, and executive agreements, rather than legislation?  A withering of the Legislative Branch through its own indifference to its responsibilities?  A well-advanced politicization of the Judicial Branch?  That’s going to end in the election of Supreme Court Justices.  An economy that prioritizes Finance over everything else, including Manufacturing?  A neglect of American military power in an era of rising danger?  A materialist, consumerist culture—against which Jimmy Carter warned long ago—that has reduced us to a “Country Made of Ice Cream”?  How is any of that going to be reformed in a timely fashion by continuing with “the way we do things around here”? 

[1] Start at 4:05.  Pa always said never trust a Hogwallop! 

[2] Cursus honorum – Wikipedia 

[3] The NYT is risk averse in its attitude toward change.  New York Times risky – Search

[4] Old English term.  See the first meaning given.  NITHING definition and meaning | Collins English Dictionary 

[5] But not all of them.  Gina Raimondo for the Democrats and Mike Gallagher for the Republicans offer hope. 

The Alien Enemies Act. Or, the Aliens Are Enemies Act.

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            As the result of historical experience during the French and Indian Wars, Anglo-Americans regarded France as the enemy and Britain as their benevolent parent-country.  Then the British and their American colonists fell out.  War followed.  During the Revolutionary War, the self-proclaimed United States signed an alliance with the French monarchy.  France loaned money to the Americans and declared war on Britain.  France also sent military forces to America.  The Franco-American alliance remained in effect after the war.  Then the French Revolution broke out, France overthrew the monarchy and declared itself a Republic, and declared war (1792) on everyone except the Man in the Moon and the Americans. 

            Americans divided sharply on how to deal with France.  Many people (often Federalists) hated the French version of revolution.  Many other people (mostly Democratic-Republicans) sympathized, at the least, with the aims of the French revolutionaries.  The issue became a partisan matter.  Congress seized the opportunity to repudiate repayment of the French war loans because they were onerous (1793).  Congress then ratified the “Jay Treaty” which settled disputes between the United States and Britain (1794).  France responded by allowing French “privateers” to seize a lot of American merchant ships in the Atlantic and the Caribbean.  Trying to fend off a war, the Americans sent a delegation to negotiate with France (1797-1798).  This ended badly and a “Quasi-War” at sea broke out (1798-1801).[1] 

            President John Adams and the Federalist majorities in Congress passed a package of four “Alien and Sedition Laws” (1798).  Formally, Adams feared that the French would try to spread their revolutionary ideology to the United States.  Informally, the Federalists had come to see the Democratic-Republicans as inclined toward the same policies as the French.  So, stomp on them. 

            The “Alien Friends Act” allowed the President to deport anyone considered to be “dangerous to the peace and safety of the United States.”  The law sun-setted after two years, and the government didn’t make much of an effort to enforce it anyway. 

            The “Naturalization Act” extended the residence requirement before obtaining citizenship from 5 years to 14 years.  Lots of/most immigrants voted Democratic-Republicans once they got the right to vote.  The law was repealed in 1802. 

            The “Sedition Act” criminalized saying mean things about Federalists in government.  A whole bunch of Democratic-Republican writers for the media of the day were prosecuted.  (My personal favorite is Jame Callender.)  The law expired in 1801. 

            The “Alien Enemies Act” granted the President the authority to arrest, imprison, or deport any non-citizen during a time when the United States was at war with, either formally or informally, a foreign country from which that non-citizen originated.[2]  The informal part gave the president the right to act in something like the undeclared “Quasi-War” or if an attack occurred when Congress could not be consulted immediately.  The Act has never been repealed.  The Act has been used in the War of 1812, the First World War, and the Second World War. 

            So, can an old law be re-interpreted for new purposes?  If so, who can re-interpret it? 

[1] XYZ Affair – Wikipedia (sort of a “Town Mouse and Country Mouse” affair) and Quasi-War – Wikipedia 

[2] OK, that’s a long and clotted sentence.  The point is, the United States is not now at war with or suffering a “predatory incursion” ordered by a foreign country.  People free-lancing a “predatory incursion” isn’t covered by the language of the law.  Ipso fatso, President Trump doesn’t have a leg to stand on. 

Diary of the Second Addams Administration 18.

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            Americans have come to depend on cheap Chinese products.  Conversely, China has come to depend on massive exports of its goods to the United States.  Hence, President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 145 percent tariff on imports from China will shock both the American and Chinese systems.[1] 

            What does the United States get from China?  At least 75 percent of electric fans, dolls, video game consoles, tricycles, food processors, and smart phones.[2]  Apple, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard all source many of their products from Asia (China, Taiwan).  The tariffs could push the price of a basic iPhone 16 from $799 to $1,140.[3]  China also produces and exports renewable energy equipment, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles. 

            Much of the American reaction to the trade war with China has been “Eeeek!”  One newspaper warned  of “an economic crisis that could leave America poorer for generations.”  A West Coast port executive said that “essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased.”  As a result, one business economist[4] warned of “empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks,” and “Covid-like shortages for consumers.”  These stoppages will cascade into job losses for longshoremen, truckers and railroads, and retail sales.[5] There could be a grievous toy shortage at Christmas because 80 percent of America’s toys are made in China.[6] 

What does China get from the United States?  Soybeans.  Some kinds of computer chips.  And many jobs.  All the stuff no longer going to America either has to be sold somewhere else, or stock-piled in warehouses, or not made at all.  Neither of the last two is sustainable, politically or economically, for long.  So China has to find a new target for its exports. 

Which country will blink first?  Is there a reasonable compromise that can be negotiated? 

Trump has wobbled on China to a degree.  He exempted some consumer electronics (smart phones, laptops) from most of the China tariffs.  He also indicated that he was ready to negotiate with China and that Xi Jinping had called him.  At the same time, he seems determined to “decouple” the economies of the two countries.[7]  At the very least, he said, “China will probably eat those tariffs.  Everything is going to be fine.” 

For their part, the Chinese seem not to have anticipated the “speed and ferocity” of the American trade counter-attack on China’s economic strategy.[8]  China’s public response has been to dig in.  “Bowing to a bully is like drinking poison to quench thirst.”[9]  Threats of retaliation abound.  When Trump said that Xi Jinping had called about tariffs, the Chinese Foreign Ministry basically called Trump a liar.  Hard to know which of those two to believe. 

[1] “Decoupling: The U.S.-China trade divorce, The Week, 25 April 2025, p. 34.    

[2] Ibid.

[3] “Inflation: How tariffs could push up prices,” The Week, 18 April 2025, p. 17.    

[4] As in an economist employed by a business, in this case an asset management firm. 

[5] “Trump shrugs off warnings over trade war costs,” The Week, 9 May 2025, p. 4. 

[6] Feels heartless denying kids their hearts’ desire at Christmas.  Still, Boxing Day can be a time for repentance. 

[7] The historian Stephen Kotkin has observed that Trump often talks out of both sides of his mouth, but if you look at what he actually does, you can tell what he really means.  His remarks bore on Iran’s nuclear program.  He thinks Trump means to stop it, whatever that may require.  There’s no reason not to apply the same view to China trade. 

[8] “Decoupling: The U.S.-China trade divorce, The Week, 25 April 2025, p. 34. 

[9] Given China’s behavior toward its neighbors in Taiwan and the Philippines, this is comic. 

Diary of the Second Addams Administration 14.

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            History lessons.  The United States was a high tariff nation for a long time.[1]  By 1929, the average tariff on imported goods was 36 percent.  The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 raised the tariff by 6 percent.[2]  In comparison, the average American tariff under recent administrations has been 2 percent.  Trump’s tariffs elevate that to 23 percent.  So, for the moment, the Trump tariffs have a greater impact than did the Smoot-Hawley tariff.  (Give it a few years and maybe we’ll be living with still-higher Vance tariffs.)  

In 1971, President Richard Nixon wanted foreign countries to revalue the dollar.  To nudge them toward speedy agreement, he imposed a 10 percent surcharge on imports.  He got speedy agreement and the surcharge went away. 

Today.  How serious a blow to the American economy are the Trump tariffs?  Never mind the stock market and the headlines in the New York Times.[3]  The American tariffs (at least the current high rates) aren’t likely to topple a row of dominos.   Most countries aren’t eager to launch a trade war with anyone just because the United States has launched one with everyone.  Most countries remain committed to “globalization” and comparatively free trade. 

What is true of Europeans and non-Chinese Asians is also true of many Americans.  One recent poll reported that 54 percent of respondents opposed the tariffs, while 42 percent supported them.  Pressure from constituents may bring Republican members of Congress off the sidelines, at least on this issue. 

Then what about retaliatory tariffs on American goods?  This sounds a little odd when Americans are being told that tariffs on foreign imports is really a tax on ordinary Americans.  Same goes for tariffs on American goods in foreign countries.  Do democracies abroad suddenly want to impose possibly long-term “tax” increases on their own constituents? 

            So, it is not clear if American tariffs and foreign retaliation are a done deal for the long haul.  Many of the target countries want to cut a deal with the United States.  China is an exception.[4]  It’s fair to say that people are not entirely sure what President Donald Trump wants.  Does he want tariff equality with most of America’s trading partners, while battering the daylights out of China?  Does he want a “fortress America,” as many people believe or hope or fear?  If he does want a “fortress America,” would that system survive the end of his term? 

            In 1932, the British created a system called “Imperial Preference”: low to no tariffs around the members, combined with a high external tariff directed against the Americans.  Could Trump use tariff negotiations to create something similar?  Tariff equality within the bloc and high tariffs by directed against China.   

[1] Greg Ip, “An Unpopular and Survivable Trade War,” WSJ, 8 April 2025. 

[2] However, it denominated tariffs in dollar terms, not in percent of price terms.  As prices fell all around the world in the early Thirties, the absolute cost of the imports increased by much more than 6 percent.  They rose as high as an additional 19 percent above the 36 percent level. 

[3] Wait.  Wall Street and the NYT are on the same side?  The problems of the Democrats in a nutshell.  “We are the people our parents warned us about.” 

[4] It may turn out that Canada is also an exception.  Canadians are the nicest people in the world.  Until they’re not.  In Normandy in Summer 1944, an attacking Waffen SS unit over-ran a Canadian Army field hospital.  They killed everyone.  Then the Canadians counter-attacked and recaptured the hospital.  The Canadians never “captured” any more Waffen SS troops. 

Diary of the Second Addams Administration 10.

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            Elon Musk kept swinging his scythe through the federal workforce, firing 7,000 people at the IRS and an additional 1,400 from Veterans Affairs, while warning the Environmental Protection Agency to expect a 65 percent reduction in force from its current 17,000 employees.[1] 

            Then, at the end of February 2025, Elon Musk had the Office of Personnel Management e-mail, oh, several million federal civilian employees.  The message instructed them to submit a five bullet-point list of the major stuff that they had done the previous week.  Failure to comply would be taken as a resignation. 

            Federal employees, their union representatives, and the Democratic Party responded with their competing imitations of Albert Goldman.[2]  About a dozen Secretaries of Departments rallied to the defense of their employees.  The latter seemed to some observers like the leaders being captured by their followers.  President Donald Trump may have seen it in that light because he gave Musk pride of place at a televised Cabinet meeting. 

            The themes in the criticism were as before: Musk is an “unelected” person culling the ranks of the unelected employees wielding the power of the federal government; and lots of Americans—Republicans and Democrats alike–depend upon the federal government for income or medical care or education.  The appeal to elected politicians to keep things as they are against the actions of the unelected man-child genius seeking to avert national bankruptcy captures the spirit of the enterprise.  It is disruption of the Old Order and NOT kicking the can down the road that arouses resistance.  In addition, it is argued that cutting employees from Veterans Affairs will harm veterans.  In reality, for at least twenty years people who deal with Veterans Affairs have been complaining that it is the most messed-up organization that they have ever seen.  A string of good leaders (e.g. Eric Shinseki) have failed in their efforts to fix it.  Finally, it is asserted that the cuts to the IRS will just hinder efforts to get the rich to pay their “fair share.”  This is an ever-green political issue.  Democrats like having it as an issue with which to bash the Republicans, but they will not actually raise taxes on the rich when they could.[3] 

            Then, to be asked to briefly state what work one did last week doesn’t seem unusual or difficult.  Corporations—both in America and around the world—carry out reductions in force whenever the balance sheet tips too much into the red.  Often, they’re not too strategic about where the axe falls.  It isn’t regarded as the end of the world. 

            On the other hand, government isn’t a business.  Ideally, the government does things for society that are essential or highly desirable, but for which there is no reasonable private sector provider.  The Departments of Defense, State, Justice, the Treasury, and the CIA and NSA for example.  Then there is the government’s role in funding and coordinating scientific and medical research, and managing a system of air traffic control.  Moreover, the “bureaucracy” isn’t staffed only with drones.  It recruits many specialist experts.  Sweeping purges will cause a bunch of things to go wrong soon.  And once the experts get the heave, it will be hard to lure them back. 

[1] “DOGE slashes workforce with Trump’s backing,” The Week, 7 March 2025, p. 5. 

[2] The character played by the great Nathan Lane in “The Birdcage” (dir. Mike Nichols, 1996). 

[3] The Biden administration’s “American Rescue Plan” passed the Senate 50-49; its “Inflation Reduction Act” passed the Senate 51-50.  Both used “Reconciliation” to by-pass the filibuster.  Higher taxes easily could have been included if they actually wanted to make the rich pay “their fair share.”  Same for repealing the “debt ceiling.”