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Prologue to a Diary of the Second Addams Administration.

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            In 2024, Trump pulled 75,142,617 votes versus 71,881,183 for Harris. 

            In 2020, Trump pulled 74,223,975 votes versus 81,283,501 for Biden. 

            In 2024, Harris pulled 9,402,318 fewer votes than Biden did in 2020. 

            In 2024, Trump pulled 918,642 more votes than he did in 2020. 

            If it is assumed that Trump’s additional votes came from people who had voted for Biden, then 918,642 of Harris’s lost votes represent these vote-switchers. 

            So, more than 900,000 voters switched from Biden/Harris to Trump.  Had those votes stayed with Harris, then Trump would have pulled “only” 74,223,975 votes.  Harris would have pulled 72,799,825 votes.  Trump still would have won the popular votes by 1,424,150 votes.  (That still leaves the Electoral College.)   

Then, some 8,483,676 people who voted for Biden in 2020, just stayed home in 2024 rather than voting for either candidate.[1] 

Throughout the Biden administration, Democratic politicians and many in the media labeled Donald Trump an “Authoritarian” and a “Fascist.”  During the Biden phase of the 2024 Presidential election and in the final bit of the Harris-phase of the election, “Donald Trump is a threat to Democracy” played a central role in Democratic messaging. 

What is “Fascism”?  Fascism is a term for right-radical political movements in the first half of the Twentieth Century.  Commonly, they were anti-liberal (in the sense of the 19th Century political ideology); Chauvinistic nationalist; focused on a strong “Leader”; hostile toward minority groups inside and to non-whites outside the Nation; and supporters of traditional values. 

Maybe 84.5 million voters WANT “Authoritarianism” and “Fascism.”  I don’t know why this would be.  Perhaps the terms “Authoritarianism” and “Fascism” aren’t frightening to 84.5 million Americans?  Perhaps the meaning for many people is different from what the terms’ users intend?  Perhaps Trump’s opponents failed to flesh-out the meaning sufficiently?[2]  Deporting illegal immigrants or letting each state decide the abortion question or avoiding foreign entanglements may not sound Hitlerian. 

Maybe 84.5 million voters don’t believe that Trump is an “Authoritarian” or “Fascist.”  In 1944, George Orwell wrote that “fascist” was a term of abusee used on the left for anyone they didn’t like.  Similarly, he said, “socialist” or “communist” were terms of abuse used on the right for anyone they didn’t like.[3]  Older voters will recall that “Fascist,” as in “cops are Fascist pigs,” once provided a common epithet on the Left.  Wasn’t true then; maybe it isn’t true now? 

Perhaps many people think that the current “democratic” political system is broken?  The parties have been failing to deal with disruptive change for decades now.  Scholars have divided American political history into six “party systems.”  Parties exhaust their agenda.  Then systems change after a “realigning election” wrecks one or more of the parties.[4] 

[1] Unless one accepts the logic of pre-election Democratics that “not voting or voting for a third candidate is a vote for Trump.”  That would put Trump’s vote at 83,626,293 to Harris’s 71,881,183.  Nearly a 12 million vote edge. 

[2] Certainly, 6 January 2021 gave them plenty to work with.  A huge audience watched the broadcast of the riot. 

[3] “What is Fascism?” https://www.orwell.ru/library/articles/As_I_Please/english/efasc 

[4] For an introduction, see Political eras of the United States – Wikipedia  Bibliography is weak. 

Prologue to a Diary of the Second Addams Administration 4.

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            Donald Trump did a lot to dirty himself up before the November 2024 presidential election.  In 2020, after losing the election, he asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger to find him around 12,000 votes to help his effort to over-turn the election.  Then he sat around in the White House watching television broadcasts of some of his supporters attacking the Capitol building and he didn’t do anything about it for a long time.[1]  He defamed E. Jean Carroll after she accused him of sexual abuse.  He stormed off to Mar-a-Lago with a big stash of classified documents, then resisted returning them to their rightful owner. 

            Not content with Trump shooting himself in the foot (or head) with these acts, the Democrats piled on.  Having run for office on a promise to sue or prosecute (or turn him into a hissing and a byword in the village) Donald Trump, Attorney General of the State of New York Laetitia James sued him for fraud.  She won her case.  Having run for office on a promise to prosecute Donald Trump, New York County district attorney Alvin Bragg prosecuted him for filing false business records, then turned these misdemeanors into felonies by claiming that they were done in support of another criminal act.[2]  Then Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis charged Trump with election interference.  Then U.S. Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith charged Trump in a federal election interference case and the government documents case.[3]  All these efforts may have been counter-productive. 

            Once again, during his campaign Trump dirtied himself up.  He lied about violent illegal immigrants taking over towns; he seemed to promise to put the anti-vaxxer and animal prankster Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. in charge of public health, he called the Democrats “the enemy within,” and engaged in various vulgarities and menaces. 

            The “Fascist Trump” and “Authoritarian Trump” had been a common accusation before and during Trump’s first term.  During the Joe Biden-phase of the 2024 campaign, it became a staple once again.  Later, in the Kamala Harris-phase of the campaign, she turned to a more optimistic message about all the good things that would come from a Democratic victory.  In the last sprint toward election day, with this message not opening much of a lead in the polls, Harris turned back to the “It Can Happen Here” theme.  All sorts of eminent people who had served in the first Trump administration now testified to his “Authoritarian” and “Fascist” tendencies.  

            None of this moved the needle.  At least it didn’t move the needle against Trump.  On 5 November 2024, voters gave him a decisive victory.  Trump won the popular vote 75,142,617 versus 71,881,183 for Harris.  In percentage terms, Trump won 50.3 percent of the vote; Harris won 48.1 percent.  In the Electoral College, these numbers translated into 312 votes for Trump and 226 votes for Harris.[4]  So, yes, Decisive, but not a Landslide. 

[1] There’s a lot to be learned about all this and more from The Report of the January 6th Committee.  On-line: Read the Jan. 6 committee report in full : NPR  In print: The January 6th Report: Findings from the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol: The January 6 Select Committee, Schiff, Adam: 9780593597279: Amazon.com: Books 

[2] I wonder if either one of these convictions will hold up, in part or in full, if they ever get to an appeals court. 

[3] All three got gummed up from a combination of Trump’s legitimate “Delay, Delay, Delay” strategy and missteps by prosecutors that do not seem to me to bear on the essential validity of the prosecutions.  OTOH, I’m no lawyer. 

[4] In 2020 Joe Biden won the popular vote 81,283,501 to Trump’s 74,223,975.

American Public Opinion in October 2024.

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            NBC/Telemundo polls[1] revealed a shift in the political preference among Latino voters. 

            In 2016, 69 percent of Latino voters supported Hillary Clinton; 19 percent favored Donald Trump. 

            In 2020, 63 percent of Latino voters chose Joe Biden; 27 percent voted for Donald Trump. 

            In 2024, just before the election, 54 percent of Latino voters favored Kamala Harris; 40 percent favored Donald Trump. 

            That is an almost 22 percent drop for the Democratic candidate in eight years, with 60 percent of it coming in the last four years.  Why the decline? 

When she ran—briefly—in the Democratic presidential primary in 2019, Harris favored decriminalizing illegal border crossings.[2]  Subsequently, under the Biden-Harris administration, President Biden ordered an end to President Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” policy for those seeking asylum.  Illegal immigration tripled.  Then the failure of the Biden-Harris administration’s “Remain in Texas” policy brought home to many northern Democratic cities the realities of such huge, unregulated immigration.  Immigration control became a powerful Republican issue. 

That explains the careening U-turn taken by Kamala Harris.  She began walloping Trump for having squelched a bipartisan border bill for political reasons when Democrats had only adopted the policy recently for political reasons. 

It doesn’t automatically explain why the Latino vote shifted.  That shift may or may not be related to the immigration question.  There are 50.4 million Latinos in states on the border with Mexico.  They would have seen all the same things that drove many Anglos wild. 

Perhaps some are angry about inflation, which hits lower-income people harder than it does higher-income people.[3]  Perhaps some are running small businesses and perceive Democrats as anti-Business, and not merely anti-Big Business.  Perhaps some are socially conservative and are repelled by the Democrat embrace of non-binarity. 

Whatever the cause, it is an important chunk of the Democratic coalition to cast away. 

            In October 2024, an Economist/YouGov poll assessed the state of American opinion on the Israel-Palestinian conflict.[4] 

            Overall, 33 percent sympathized more with Israel, 19 percent more with the Palestinians, and 24 percent with both sides equally.  (Which totals 76 percent.  What about the other 24 percent?  “Don’t Know” or “A plague on both their houses”?)  Under that umbrella huddle different groups.  Only 14 percent of Democrats sympathize more with Israelis, while 33 percent sympathize more with the Palestinians.  (That’s 47 percent.  So the other 53 percent sympathize with both sides equally or Don’t Care?)  In contrast, 63 percent of Republicans express more sympathy for Israelis than for Palestinians, while a mere 5 percent sympathize more with Palestinians.  (Again, that’s 68 percent. Do the other 32 percent sympathize equally or just don’t care?)  On the issue of supplying military aid[5] to Israel, 38 percent say that it should be reduced; 18 percent support increasing it; and 25 percent say that it’s fine where it is.  (Again, the figures total 81 percent, so 19 percent probably fall into “Don’t Know.”)  Support for military assistance at or above the current level totals 43 percent, while support for cutting it is at 38 percent.  That’s close to a tipping point. 

            So, 63 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of Democrats sympathize more with Israel than with the Palestinians.  At the same time, support for maintaining military aid at the current level or for raising it totals only 43 percent.  That is a lot lower level than the totals for feeling sympathy for Israel.  Even among their most committed American supporters, the Israelis are encountering doubts about their wars in Gaza and Lebanon.  Probably these doubts are rooted less in the necessity of war than in the manner of its conduct. 

Do Israeli care any longer if they alienate the Americans?  I haven’t seen polling on that. 

[1] “Poll Watch,” The Week, 11 October 2024, p. 17. 

[2] “Harris: A sharp turn on immigration,” The Week, 11 October 2024, p. 16. 

[3] Donald Trump is said to appeal to “low-information” voters.  The disparate impact of inflation among income groups could leave the better-educated and better-off Democrats as the “low information voters” when it comes to economic hardship.  To turn around Governor Tim Walz’s jab at the ever-obnoxious Elon Musk, “He’s a fat guy with a government job; what does he know about hardship?” 

[4] Poll Watch,” The Week, 18 October 2024

[5] You know, stuff that goes “BOOM!” and then buildings fall down. 

Prologue to a Possible Second Term of the Addams Administration 3.

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            NB: I’m writing this as if I don’t know how yesterday’s election turned out. 

            As 5 November 2024 loomed, nothing seemed to shift the balance of voters.  A Wall Street Journal poll reported that Donald Trump led Kamala Harris 51 to 47 percent nation-wide; a New York Times poll showed them even in the seven “battleground” states.  This wasn’t a simple difference of opinion.  Another poll reported that 87 percent of respondents believed that “America will suffer permanent damage if their candidate loses.” 

In light of the themes of speeches used by the two candidates and their parties in this election season, it isn’t hard to see why so many people are worried.  In the sprint to the finish, neither candidate did anything to lessen voter fears.  Kamala Harris said that Donald Trump is a “petty tyrant”; that he is “unstable, consumed with grievance, obsessed with revenge, and out for unchecked power”; and that electing him President will produce an America “ruled by chaos and division.”[1]  For his part, Trump lambasted the Democratic Party as “a crooked, malicious, leftist machine” and “the most sinister and corrupt forces on Earth.” 

Whichever one of them wins, the judiciary is going to be re-made.  Asked straight-out about expanding the Supreme Court to outvote the current conservative majority, Harris refused to disavow such a plan.  If Trump wins, any vacancies in the next four years will be filled with Federalist Society-vetted people like Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Gorsuch. 

            Much will depend on the outcome of races further down the ballot, especially the Senate.  If one party gains both the White House and the Senate, it will grasp Executive and Judicial appointments for at least two years.  In Senate races (where one-third of the Senate stands for election every two years), Republicans have the easier path to control.  Flipping one seat, would give them a tie.  The Vice President would be the deciding vote on some legislation, but the filibuster would block most legislation.[2]  If the Republicans win two or more seats, then they would have the majority and could either block all Democratic legislation (if Harris wins) or push through some legislation if Trump wins.  (The American system is murkier and more contingent than are European parliamentary systems.)  Republicans appeared confident that they could win seats in West Virginia and Montana; they hoped to win seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.  Pollsters agreed that these hopes were reasonable.  Control of the House of Representatives appeared up for grabs.[3] 

            Fear haunted the Democrats.  Democrats warn that an election that gives Republicans control of both houses of Congress and the Executive Branch, combined with a Republican super-majority on the Supreme Court, will allow the Republicans to launch a sweeping remodeling of American government.  Then, many Democrats have given voice to their fear of violence from Trump’s supporters if he loses.  Stoked by four years of accusations of a stolen election, it might be much worse than on 6 January 2021.  What if he wins?  What if he wins both the popular vote and in the Electoral College?  How will Democrats absorb such a stinging rejection of all their warnings? 

[1] “Harris warns of ‘petty tyrant’ Trump in closing pitch,” The Week, 8 November 2024, p. 4.  Harris also proclaimed that “We have to stop pointing fingers and start locking arms.” 

[2] Harris has already called for an end to the filibuster in the Senate. 

[3] “Republicans hold edge in race to control Congress,” The Week, 8 November 2024, p. 5. 

Prologue to a Possible Second Addams Administration 2.

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            In mid-October 2024, polls showed Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each drawing 48 percent of the nation-wide poll’s respondents; they were neck and neck in the “swing states” which will decide the victor in the Electoral College. 

Donald Trump sat for an interview with Fox News.[1]  Asked about how to deal with election interference by foreign agitators,[2] he took the question in an entirely different direction.  He warned that domestic opponents, whom he called “the enemy within,” posed a much more serious threat.  If the police were not up to the task, then the National Guard or even the Army, could be deployed.[3] 

Perhaps Trump had in mind the civil unrest attending some of the social justice protests that had followed the murder of George Floyd.  Such an interpretation is hard to maintain in light of Trump’s talk about his political opponents.  He has called them “radical left lunatics,” and “Marxists and communists and fascists.  They’re so sick and they’re so evil.” 

            Trump’s grim discourse prompted Kamala Harris to adjourn her joy campaign in favor of a return to the Biden campaign’s denunciation of Trump as a danger to democracy.  She claimed that Trump is “out for unchecked power” and that he is “increasingly unstable and unhinged.”  Soon, “Unstable, Unhinged, and Unchecked” became a staple of Harris ads.  She told one interviewer that trump’s program “is about fascism.”  General Mark Miley, the former Chairman of of the Joint Chiefs, joined in the assessment.  Trump, he said, is “fascist to the core.” 

            Journalists have been quick to see Trump’s actions as drawn from the non-existent “authoritarian playbook.”[4]  The week’s news gave them a lot to work with.  Rather than evidence of vulgar Madness, his violent talk is evidence of clever Badness said one columnist.  Republican “normies” will vote for him no matter what to avoid a Harris presidency.  (Many of these voters this that his threats are just more Trump blather.)  He is actually seeking to mobilize the low-information patriotic voters.  Even if he does lose the election, he will not accept the outcome.  He didn’t in 2020.  He’s been spewing charges of massive voter fraud ever since. 

            What if the Cassandras are right?  Trump could come to power with half or almost half of American voters behind him.  What is the next line of defense if the ballot box “fails” from an excess of democracy?  If people sincerely believe that Trump is a “fascist” bent on overthrowing Democracy, then he poses a grave danger whether or not he wins the election.  If elected, he will use his office to ram through policies that the other half of the population oppose.[5] 

What are his opponents planning to do?  Sue?  Hold vigils?  Rally at the Capitol?  Enjoy cutting sarcasm on late-night TV?  Or hasn’t anyone at all given this thought?  That’s hard to believe.  So, who has done the thinking and what have they come up with? 

[1] “Trump ramps up threats against political ‘enemies’,” The Week, 25 October 2024, p. 4. 

[2] The F.B.I. has been reporting to the public about on-line interventions by Russia, China, and Iran. 

[3] The planning and decision-making for the use of National Guard troops from the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia on 6 January 2020 is outlined here: https://media.defense.gov/2021/Jan/08/2002562063/-1/-1/0/PLANNING-AND-EXECUTION-TIMELINE-FOR-THE-NATIONAL-GUARDS-INVOLVEMENT-IN-THE-JANUARY-6-2021-FIRST-AMENDMENT-PROTESTS-IN-WASHINGTON-DC 

[4] Well, OK, there is a book with that title.  However, it is a product of Trump’s opponents.  See: The Authoritarian Playbook for 2025 : Protect Democracy : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

[5] Wait, is that how we define “fascism”? 

Prologue to a Possible Second Addams Administration 1.

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In early October 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris each could smell victory.[1]  A New York Times/Siena College poll had Harris leading Trump nationally 49 to 46 percent.  More importantly, an average of polls in the seven “battleground” states that will decide the election in the Electoral College showed the rivals within 1-2 points of each other.  Each was ahead in three states and they were tied in Pennsylvania.[2] 

Remarkably, nothing has seemed to shift the basic balance of forces for the last several months.  It appears that Americans have largely decided for which candidate they will vote if Election Day ever gets here.  Faced with the need to just grind it out for another month, the candidates distilled their campaign messages for the final kick. 

For Trump it boiled down to Courage and Anger.  He returned to Butler, Pennsylvania, where he had narrowly survived an assassination attempt in July.  Then, as the Secret Service agents had belatedly tried to drag him to safety,[3] he had instinctively yelled to the crowd “Fight!  Fight!  Fight!”  Many in his audience now sported T-shirts bearing the same words.[4]  In Butler, he warned of the “enemy from within.”  Two days later, in Wisconsin, he warned that a victory by Kamala Harris would mean that “The country won’t be the U.S. any longer.” 

For Harris, it boiled down to Fear and Promises.  She arranged a series of appearances with friendly interviewers that allowed her to speak directly to her target audiences.[5]  In one appearance, Harris said that she wanted to extend Medicare to pay for long-term home care for senior citizens, but stated that “there is not a thing” that she would have done differently from President Biden over the last four years.  She also agreed to an interview on “Sixty Minutes.”  In the “Sixty Minutes” interview Harris skipped past Russia and China to name Iran as the “greatest adversary” of the United States, and judged that Vladimir Putin “would be sitting in Kyiv right  now” if  Donald Trump had been president instead of Joe Biden. 

            Neither the media nor the campaign staffs felt much joy from these approaches.  They roundly denounced the former president’s refusal to stay on a conventional political message (inflation, illegal immigration) while avoiding incitements to violence and personal denigration of his opponents.  They roundly denounced the Vice President’s penchant for soft-ball media appearances and her relatively thin schedule of public appearances.  Too many voters say that they don’t really know her.  To be fair, too many voters say they know Trump all too well. 

[1] “Harris, Trump neck and neck in race’s final month,” The Week, 18 October 2024, p. 4. 

[2] Which explains why I’m being bombarded with text messages and phone calls while I’m trying to watch the evening news.  Note to Self: This is NOT the place for a tirade about “The David Muir Cartoon Show.” 

[3] Department of Justice Inspector General investigated the FISA warrants issued to allow communication intercepts of one of Donald Trump’s campaign advisors in 2016.  He found no “documentary or testimonial evidence” of wrong-doing.  All he found were a series of inexplicable “errors” made by very experienced investigative personnel that all tended in one direction.  The same appears to be the case with the apses made by the Secret Service detail assigned to protect Trump.  OTOH, there’s a legitimate case that the existing Secret Service is inadequately funded and staffed to meet its responsibilities.  Many complain that they are over-worked and under-paid.  As a result, nearly 20 percent of Secret Service employees left in fiscal 2022 and 2023.  For a quick, well-informed take on systemic problems of the Secret Service, see: In ‘Zero Fail,’ Carol Leonnig Says Secret Service Is Underfunded And Overworked : NPR 

[4] Comically, many of the shirts are manufactured by the Chinese consumer goods giant Temu.  Pattern – Temu 

[5] Stephen Colbert, Howard Stern, “The View,” and “Call Her Daddy.” 

We Got to Get Out of This Place If It’s the Last Thing We Ever Do.

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            Just under one-sixth (16 percent) of Americans trust the Federal government.[1]  It isn’t just the government institutions that are troubling people. 

In an “a pox upon both your houses” evaluation, a recent CBS poll found that 54 percent of Americans see the Republicans as “extreme,” and the same percentage see the Democrats as extreme.  These two groups overlap to a degree, with 28 percent disapproving of both parties.  About the same number, 26 percent, say that having more political parties would make solving our problems easier.[2] 

            President Joe Biden hasn’t had the kind of calming effect that he seemed to promise during the 2020 campaign.  Partly, this may stem from his left-of-center policy program.[3]  Partly, it may stem from the appearance of new problems (Ukraine), the enlargement of pre-existing problems (refugees at the border), and the return of old problems once considered settled (abortion).  Partly, it may stem from the refusal of so many Republicans to let go of Donald Trump in spite of 6 January 2020.[4] 

A recent Pew poll found that 55 percent of Americans are angry about the current political situation and 65 percent are exhausted by it.  A mere 10 percent are excited about the political situation.  A little more than a quarter (27 percent) of Americans think that the political system as a whole is working “very” well or “somewhat” well.  That implies that almost three-quarters (73 percent) think that it is NOT working any flavor of “well.”  Most (63 percent) aren’t confident about its future (or Don’t Know, which seems to me to be the same thing as not confident).  Most Americans, some 64 percent, say that a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024 is proof of a “broken” political system.  On the one hand, two-thirds of people doubt that Joe Biden would have the physical or mental capacity to serve as an effective president in a second term.  On the other hand, better than half of Americans think that Donald Trump would be all too active and able in pursuing his goals in a second term. 

            Reading these figures, it is easy to believe that “America is desperate for a new beginning.”[5]  Trouble is that, while “America” may be ready, “Americans” are not.  If they were ready, Donald Trump would not have a 40 point bulge on the Seven Dwarves.  If they were ready, Joe Biden would have been persuaded to spend more time with his Addams-like family.  No serious insurgency has broken out in either party.  Instead, we’re waiting for the Grim Reaper to solve our problems.  In an Age of Medical Marvels at that. 

            Still, when and if it comes, what will that “new beginning” look like? 

[1] It is unclear exactly what people understand by “the Federal government.”  Do they mean all three branches or do they mean one or two branches of the government.  The bureaucracy of the Executive Branch can seem awkward and incapable, and even autocratic.  Congress is a monument to paralysis through divided government, and draws careerists like flies to…sugar.  The Judicial Branch has been the scene of politicization for decades as it has become a means to by-pass legislative impasses.  Now, over half (54 percent) of Americans distrust the Supreme Court.  The “Impeach Early Warren” bill-boards of yore have given way to the “Impeach Clarence Thomas” op-eds of today. 

[2] Nothing in European political systems, where this is common, suggests that it would make things better. 

[3] That program has involved a further expansion of deficit spending as part of his Inflation Act, his reliance upon reconciliation to ram through major legislation, and his resort of rule-writing to impose controversial policies. 

[4] I doubt that many Republicans would have accepted any of Biden’s actions as legitimate, even if he had continued every single Trump administration policy.  They want Orange Man. 

[5] William Galston, “America Is Desperate for a New Beginning,” WSJ, 27 September 2023.