An Episode in Appeasement: The Anglo-German Naval Agreement, June 1935 1.

            To put it mildly, France and Britain had a long history of conflict.[1]  Beginning in the 1890s, however, Germany’s pursuit of a large navy threatened Britain’s long-standing policy of maintaining naval dominance in order to safeguard the empire.  Britain responded to Germany’s fleet construction by settling many of its outstanding international conflicts and drawing closer to France.  The two countries fought shoulder to shoulder (although not without some elbows being thrown) during the First World War. 

            Once victory over Germany had been won, Britain and France began to drift apart.  First, the Versailles Treaty deprived Germany of a real navy.  The end of German naval power removed a thorn from the lion’s paw.  Britain’s policy turned to other things.[2]  Second, Anglo-American fair words and promises persuaded the French to back off their most extreme demands for guarantees against any revival of German power.[3]  Third, the two countries diverged on policy toward Central and Eastern Europe.  American repudiation of the security guarantee for France made the French all the more determined to strictly enforce the remaining terms.  This led to the Ruhr Crisis and the near-collapse of the German economy.[4]  That added to the chaos in Central and Eastern Europe.   

Yet Britain desired a restoration of stability in the region in hopes of creating markets for its troubled economy.  Later (in 1935), a diplomat at Britain’s Foreign Office would observe that “… from the earliest years following the war it was our policy to eliminate those parts of the Peace Settlement which, as practical people, we knew to be unstable and indefensible.”[5]  Anglo-American financial pressure led France to accept a reduction in German reparations to a level that the Germans might be willing to pay, at least for a while.  This was the Dawes Plan.[6]  Then British Foreign Secretary Austen Chamberlain[7] helped negotiate the Locarno treaty (1925).[8]  The treaty offered a general British guarantee of the existing frontiers in Western Europe.  However, the treaty offered nothing similar in Eastern Europe where France sought anti-German alliances among the “successor states” (Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia).  If a future Germany attacked one of France’s allies, France would attack Germany.  However, the Locarno Treaty might require Britain to come to the aid of Germany, rather than France.  None of this was “good” from the French point of view.  It was merely the best that could be won under the circumstances. 

French Foreign Minister Aristide Briand tried to make the best of a bad deal.  His approach to the Americans about an alliance produced a meaningless general treaty open to all.  The “Kellogg-Briand Pact” (1928) renounced “aggressive war as an instrument of national policy.”  Even Weimar Germany signed. 


[1] History of France–United Kingdom relations – Wikipedia  Very sketchy, but you’ll get the drift: war, truce, war. 

[2] “Now that I’ve eaten, I see things in a different light.”—Groucho Marx. 

[3] The Americans soon repudiated their guarantee by refusing ratification of the Versailles treaty. 

[4] Occupation of the Ruhr – Wikipedia 

[5] Part of this sprang from the de-legitimation of the Versailles Treaty by people like Keynes and Sydney Fay. 

[6] Stephen A. Schuker, The End of French Predominance in Europe: The Financial Crisis of 1924 and the Adoption of the Dawes Plan.   

[7] Older half-brother of the future Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. 

[8] Jon Jacobson, Locarno Diplomacy: Germany and the West, 1925-1929.    

Some questions about the origins of the First World War.

There is one question above all others to which historians return again and again. Could this catastrophe have been avoided? In trying to answer that question, historians have tried to tackle smaller chunks of it. Here is a sampling of the questions that historians have asked.

 

Did the monarchical governments of Germany, Austria, and Russia impede a rational solution of complex problems by means short of war? If so, how? Is democratic government naturally more peaceful than monarchical or authoritarian government?

Did the military staffs and their plans, especially in central and eastern Europe, get out of hand?

What part did the widely accepted beliefs of the day play in the coming of the war? The elites in all countries saw war as a legitimate instrument of national policy. Many people accepted ideas of competition, rather than cooperation, between countries, races, and social classes.

 

European social and political systems were out of joint with the basic realities, so perhaps a great upheaval would have come in any event.

What did domestic crises add to the decision for war? Germany’s established rulers faced political problems in dealing with the rise of the SPD and Center parties; the Austrian rulers faced crises over domestic reforms and South Slav resistance to “Magyarization; Russian rulers feared that a failure to support Serbia would revive the revolutionary forces of 1905. Did the struggle for more responsive government in Germany, Austria, and Russia mean that all were headed toward revolution even without the First World War? Did decision-makers choose war as a way of holding off or resolving domestic problems?

What role did international problems play in the decision for war? The key problems were the rightful place of Germany in Europe, the inability of anyone in central and eastern Europe to formulate a constructive solution to the problems of nationalism in multi-national and multi-ethnic states.

Was the war the product of human errors, which could have been avoided or corrected if better people had been in power, or was it the product of profound causes, which better people might have delayed but could not have prevented from boiling up at some point?

 

To these questions I would add one more. What lessons, if any, do the answers to these questions have for our own time?