American attitudes toward immigration.

            We are all immigrants or the descendants of immigrants.[1]  Yet “Americans” have often been ambivalent about—or hostile to—new arrivals.  In the 17th Century Native Americans made repeated attempts to wipe out English settlers.  The early European settlements, especially those of the English, were starved for settlers.  They generally welcomed newcomers with open arms. 

            After independence from Britain had been won, the new United States had to define its own policy on immigration.  Generally, the new nation desired immigrants.  Immigrants could bring valuable skills, and the labor to transform the continent’s abundant resources into national wealth.  All residents enjoyed the same civil and legal rights.  The initial residency requirement for citizenship was two years, later set at five years.  No one coerced them to abandon their own culture, or even language. 

            In the 1830s began a great wave of immigrants, predominantly Germans and Irish.  Trouble arose from the reality that “new” Americans were not immediately and might never be “real” Americans in the eyes of the “old” Americans.  Increasingly, the “voluntary” Americans were drawn from countries where absolute monarchy prevailed.  This included all those who belonged to the “absolute monarchy” of the Papal Catholicism.[2]  Other American feared the United States would be swarmed by left-wing radicals in flight from more repressive regimes. 

“Nativism” arose as a political force, culminating in the American or “Know Nothing” Party in the 1850s.  They expressed Thomas Jefferson’s earlier fears that people raised under ana absolute monarchy could not learn how to participate in a democratic republic.[3] “Nativism” made impressive progress until swamped by the larger crisis of the Civil War. 

After the Civil War, as any textbook will tell you, the country bounded forward in both industrialization and the exploitation of the Trans-Mississippi West.  Vast amounts of natural resources (minerals, timber, grains and livestock) just needed manpower to put them to work.  British, German, Irish (and French-Canadian in New England) immigrants poured in.  Anti-Catholicism, anti-Semitism revived, and a new anti-Socialism joined them as inspirations to immigrants.  Then, in the 1880s, there began a tidal wave of “new immigration” from Southern and Eastern Europe.  Poles, Russian Jews, Italians, Hungarians, Greeks, and others arrived in huge numbers.  Only the First World War (1914) paused most European emigration. 

This latter immigration stirred bubbling cauldron of late-19th and early-20th Century social, economic, cultural, and political strife.  Both “advanced” thinkers and organized labor championed the limits; but equivalent figures argued for inclusion over exclusion.  The contest produced the first laws restricting European immigration (1923-1924).   The laws have been revised on several occasions, but the United States has been a country of regulated and restricted immigration for a century.  Recently, mass defiance of the law has combined with important political and economic forces turning a blind eye to the issue has made it an explosive problem. 

So, we go back and forth in a debate that is ever-changing and ever-the-same. 

See: Oscar Handlin, The Uprooted; Roger Daniels, Guarding the Golden Door. 


[1] Including those whose ancestors crossed the Bering land bridge when it was still above sea level.  

[2] The “Syllabus of Errors” (1877) summed up more than a century of Papal anti-modern, anti-republican, and anti-liberal thought.  “He was agin it,” as Will Rogers said of a fundamentalist Protestant preacher’s views on sin. 

[3] Jefferson came down on both sides of many issues.  This is one such. 

Diary of the Second Addams Administration 3.

            Among President Donald Trump’s Executive Orders (EOs) bearing in some way in illegal immigration were ones: declaring an emergency on the southern border; ordering 1,600 troops to the border to support Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE); stopping the claiming of asylum at the border; revoking President Joe Biden’s EO granting special immigrant status to about 600,000 refugees from Venezuela’s Marxist dictatorship; increasing those eligible for “fast-track deportations”; declared drug cartels (which also engage in people smuggling) as “terrorists”; taking the Border Patrol asylum app off-line; and revoking an earlier ban on ICE raids on sanctuaries like churches, schools, and hospitals.[1]  In a blow at “sanctuary cities,” the Department of Justice threatened to prosecute state and local officials who refused to comply with deportation orders. 

The search for illegal immigrants got underway immediately.[2]  ICE corralled 5,000 illegal immigrants in the first weeks.  So did the expulsions.  Military planes began ferrying deportees back to their home countries.  Brazil, Mexico, and Columbia got the first returnees.  When Columbia tried to refuse, Trump threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on imports from Columbia.  The president of Columbia caved-in. 

Democrats’ criticism of President Trump’s actions took three lines.  First, Trump’s EO modifying the eligibility for “birthright citizenship” met a barrage of denunciations from Democrats.  “The 14th Amendment says what it means, and it means what it says” asserted Connecticut’s Attorney General.[3]  Twenty-two states sued to block the order. 

Second, some critics saw a much greater import to the “birthright” EO.  Closing the border on the grounds that the massive illegal immigration “constitute[s] and invasion” creates the possibility that President Trump could invoke the Alien Enemies Act,[4] and then deploy “extraordinary new powers.”  So, we’re closer to fascism in this view.  On the other hand, the half of the country that elected Trump supports the mass deportations of illegal immigrants, while the half that failed to elect Kamala Harris oppose mass deportations.[5]  So, we’re living with the results of a free and fair—if tight–election in this view. 

Third, it won’t work.  A human tide of people from troubled areas of the world want to get to places of greater safety and opportunity.  They will keep coming regardless of the measures taken to stop them.  “Migrants don’t simply disappear by wishing them away.”[6]  A Trump supporter could offer two counter-arguments.  On the one hand, look at the European model.  They pay foreign countries to block passage.  On the other hand, Trump isn’t wishing them away.  He’s launching a massive effort to actually stop migration.  Time will tell. 


[1] “Asylum halted as immigration crackdown begins,” The Week, 31 January 2025, p. 5. 

[2] “Thousands arrested in immigration crackdown,” The Week, 7 February 2025, p. 5. 

[3] Which sounds a lot like “Originalism.”  Originalism – Wikipedia  That’s OK: John Marshall Harlan’s lonely dissent on Plessy v. Ferguson (1896) adopted the same perspective.  However, it is a hard swerve away from the well-established liberal position that the Constitution is a “living document” which jurist must interpret in light of changing times. 

[4] One of the Alien Sedition Acts passed in 1798; unlike the others, this Act won support from many Jeffersonians and was never repealed.  See: Alien and Sedition Acts – Wikipedia 

[5] “Poll Watch,” The Week, 7 February 2025, p. 17.  The Boston Globe put the share of supporters at 55 percent. 

[6] Juliette Kayyem in the Atlantic, quoted in “Thousands arrested in immigration crackdown,” The Week, 7 February 2025, p. 5. 

Civil Society.

            “The order [halting government payments to external bodies] sparked chaos at universities, charities, local government, and other bodies reliant on federal funding,…”[1]  Sort of an off-the-cuff statement that arouses no alarm unless your ox is one of those getting gored.  Still, it’s worth thinking about a little bit. 

            One way of thinking about the issues is the following.  Jurgen Habermas (1929– ) is a brilliant German philosopher.[2]  OTOH, so was Karl Marx.  What did that get us?  “Boiler suits, prison camps, and a damn long march to nowhere.”[3]  One of the many interesting ideas propounded by Habermas, on the basis of deep learning in a host of areas, is the distinction between the “public sphere” and the “private sphere.”  He defined the “public sphere” as “made up of private people gathered together as a public and articulating the needs of society with the state.”  The “private sphere,” in contrast, the place where “an individual enjoys a degree of authority and tradition, unhampered by interventions from governmental, economic or other institutions.”  Religion, family life, sexual relations in private are current examples of this “private sphere.”[4]   Taken together, they create “civil society.”  By “civil society” is meant “1) individuals and organizations in a society which are independent of the government or 2) the aggregate of non-governmental organizations and institutions that advance the interests and will of citizens.”[5] 

            In recent-for-me times, the Czech writer and dissident (even when he was in power), Vaclav Havel[6] used the term civil society to describe all the groups menaced by Communism’s relentless drive to subordinate every person and group into conformity with the state’s wishes. 

            Here’s the thing: “universities, charities, local government, and other bodies” is pretty much an operational definition of “civil society.” 

            The institutions of civil society are supposed to be “individuals and organizations in a society which are independent of the government.”  The fact that they are “reliant on federal funding” indicates just how deeply the institutions of “civil society” have been penetrated and compromised by the State.  With the money comes regulations, requirements, audits. 

 Yet, “the aggregate of non-governmental organizations and institutions” are supposed to “advance the interests and will of citizens.”  They are supposed to engage in discussion and even confrontation.  Hard to do when you’re the hired help. 

None of this is the product of a sinister conspiracy.[7]  It’s just convenience, then inertia. 


[1] “Trump orders cause whiplash in Washington,” The Week, 7 February 2025, p. 4. 

[2] Jürgen Habermas – Wikipedia

[3] Jim Prideaux in John Le Carre, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (1974).    

[4] However, these things can shift over time.  For the Greeks and for Europeans in the Reformation, religion was a public concern that required continual and public assent, but the authorities didn’t much care if you whacked your kid.  “Boys have always been beaten and it would be a bad day for the world if boys ceased to be beaten.”  C.S. Forester, Lieutenant Hornblower.  The statement is made during the run-up to the murder of a sadistic Navy captain.

[5] See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_society  NB: I reversed the order of the terms because I want to consider a particular point. 

[6] Guy reminds me a bit of Roger Williams.  Turn left when everyone else turns right.  Turn left because everyone else turns right.  “Let us honor if we can the vertical man, though we value none but the horizontal one.”—W.S. Auden. 

[7] Regardless of what Republican or Democratic activists may believe. 

Diary of the Second Addams Administration 2.

            Between 20 January and 1 February 2025, President Donald Trump issues 45 Executive Orders (Eos) that imposed sweeping changes in government policies.[1]  President Joe Biden had issued only 26 EOs ordering sweeping changes in the same period following his inauguration and didn’t hit the 45 mark until 14 May 2021.[2] 

            Some of these EOs struck a nerve with Democrats.  Among many other things, Trump withdrew–more accurately re-withdrew–the United States from the Paris Climate executive agreement[3]; ordered the immediate dismantling of any and all government programs promoting diversity, inclusion, and equity; ordered any federal workers employed on such programs to be placed on paid leave; reversed a Biden EO permitting transgender troops to serve in the military; changed the name of the tallest mountain in the United States from “Denali” back to “McKinley”[4]; ordered that the “Gulf of Mexico” be renamed the “Gulf of America”; and reversed an EO originally issued by Lyndon B. Johnson in 1965 which allowed government to lean on private contractors to take “affirmative action” in hiring.[5]  In short, a bunch of sacred cows went to Bovine University. 

            More substantively, Trump withdrew the United States from the World Health Organization, (W.H.O.); said that the United States would “take back” the Panama Canal; reduced restrictions on oil and gas production that had been imposed by the Biden administration; created a “Department of Government Efficiency” (D.O.G.E.) to be led by Elon Musk; and ordered an end to “birthright citizenship.”[6] 

            More orders followed hard on the heels of the first few days.  He issued, then quickly rescinded, an order temporarily halting the payment of federal grants, loans, and other forms of assistance to a wide range of groups outside the federal government.  “The order sparked chaos at universities, charities, local government, and other bodies reliant on federal funding,…”[7]  Not satisfied with shaking hearts and minds with such dramatic action, the administration also issued a warning to federal employees that there were going to be big job cuts.  The e-mail message offered many of them the choice between retiring immediately and being paid for eight months or risking being laid off when Musk got around to them.  “Which will you have?”[8] 

            To top off the disruption, Trump fulfilled his pledge to pardon the 1,600 convicted rioters from 6 January 2021.  Or, in the words of the WSJ, “Cop Beaters.”  He’s good for his word, alas. 


[1] List of executive orders in the second presidency of Donald Trump – Wikipedia 

[2] List of executive actions by Joe Biden – Wikipedia  Biden issued his final EO, his 162nd, on 19 January 2025. 

[3] Like the Iran agreement, President Barack Obama had known that he couldn’t get a treaty through the Senate because the Constitution requires a two-thirds vote of approval for any treaty.  So, in both cases, he settled for executive agreements whose durability depended upon retaining control of the White House.

[4] Still, if you go to a GMC dealer, you won’t be offered a test drive in the “exciting new McKinley.” 

[5] Commonly believed to mean quotas. 

[6] He did not exactly end “birthright citizenship.”  He restricted it to exclude children born of parents who were illegal immigrants, and to exclude children born to a foreign national mother in the United States on any kind of short-term or temporary visa and whose father was also not a citizen.  Furthermore, the change was not retroactive and applies to children born after 19 February 2025.  The 14th Amendment had been adopted long before there had been any idea of illegal immigration. 

[7] “Trump orders cause whiplash in Washington,” The Week, 7 February 2025, p. 4.  See also: “Trump returns with a barrage of orders, pardons,” The Week, 31 January 2025, p. 4. 

[8] True Grit (2010) “Fill Your Hands!” 

Tragedy and Policy.

            Venezuelan despots Hugo Chavez, then Nicholas Maduro sparked a gigantic flood of refugees from their country.[1]  By October 2022, an estimated 7 million people had fled the country, more than 20 percent of the population.  The emigration began with the country’s elites, then ate down into other layers of society as political oppression led to economic catastrophe.[2]  The Biden administration gestured at expelling some of the illegal immigrants under Covid-era “Title 42” provisions.  For the rest, it adopted a “remain in Texas” policy which infuriated both the people of border areas and Texas governor Greg Abbott.  In April 2022, the Biden administration ended “Title 42” expulsions.  Governor Abbott began bussing illegal immigrants from Texas to various self-proclaimed “sanctuary cities” in loudly Progressive areas.  New York City became the chief destination of both “Operation Lone Star” busees and the greater number who made their own way.[3]  Soon, New York City and many other places had migrant crises of their own.[4]  New York City began taking control of disused or under-used hotels to house the migrants.  For example, the city took over the Roosevelt Hotel as one of these facilities.[5]

            In September 2022 a Venezuelan named Jose Antonio Ibarra illegally entered the United States near El Paso, Texas.  Probably, he hoped to connect with a brother who had entered the United States illegally at an earlier date.[6]  ICE officers detained him soon afterward and then released him.  Like many other Venezuelan migrants, Ibarra traveled to New York City. where he stayed in the Roosevelt Hotel migrant shelter.  In September 2023, he was arrested for “acting in a manner to injure a child less than 17.”  Released on bond before ICE could issue a detainer order,[7] he blew town for Athens, Georgia, where his brother lived.  No sooner did the two get together than they went to stealing.  In October 2023, the brothers were arrested in possession of goods stolen from a local Walmart.  They were released.  Then Jose Antonio Ibarra was arrested for shoplifting.  He was released, but failed to appear for a court hearing in December 2023.  The judge issued a bench warrant for his arrest.   Athens, Georgia, police failed to locate Ibarra over the next two months.  On 22 February 2024, Ibarra murdered a 22 year-old nursing student named Laken Riley.  Arrested and tried, he was convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment. 

            The case received a lot of media attention.  In March 2024, just after Ibarra’s arrest, the House of Representatives passed the “Laken Riley Act.”  The law required the Department of Homeland Security to detain illegal immigrants who “[are] charged with, [are] arrested for, [are] convicted of, [admit to] having committed, or [admit to] committing” theft-related crimes.  The vote was 251–170, with 37 Democrats and all Republicans voting in favor.  It went to the Senate, where it just sat.  Progressives argued that the law would allow the “indefinite detention, without bail, of any undocumented immigrant—including minors, asylum seekers, or “Dreamers” brought here as children—who is merely arrested for, not convicted of, nonviolent crimes like theft.”[8]  Democrats had control of the Senate at that point, so cooler heads (or colder hearts) prevailed. 

Put simply, the Laken Riley case asked the question: how many American citizens have to die in the pursuit of “a blinkered delusion with purchase on only the progressive fringes of American politics”?[9]  In November 2024, Democrats lost the Senate as well as the White House.  Anger over illegal immigration provided one big driver in the election.  In January 2025, the new Senate immediately passed the bill while adding “assaulting a police officer, or a crime that results in death or serious bodily injury like drunk driving” to the list of offenses.  In addition, the law allows states to sue the Department of Homeland Security if they believe that the law is not being enforced.[10]  This time, many Democrats scrambled to support the bill: 48 in the House and 32 in the Senate voted in favor.  The House approved the revised bill and President Donald Trump signed it into law. 

            A long and winding road from the rise of a Venezuelan Marxist dictator to the death of an American nursing student to a backlash bill over a neglected problem. 


[1] Probably not the sort of thing that gets your image on the currency a hundred years later. 

[2] A basic introduction is Venezuelan refugee crisis – Wikipedia  There is a good deal of journalism on the story, but—so far—no really good book to recommend. 

[3] GEORGE BENSON On Broadway Album Version 

[4] See: New York City migrant housing crisis – Wikipedia  See also: Nelson – ha ha 

[5] The Roosevelt Hotel had been built during a happier and more optimistic time in America.  See: Roosevelt Hotel (Manhattan) – Wikipedia and Terminal City (Manhattan) – Wikipedia  More evidence, if any is needed, that we are not the country we once were.  Could we be once more? 

[6] The brother is believed to be a member of the Tren de Aragua crime organization.  See: Tren de Aragua – Wikipedia  Both the violence and pervasiveness of the gang in the United States seems over-stated, notably by President Trump.

[7] “[T]he defining characteristic of a sanctuary city in the US” is prohibiting “the use of city funds and resources to assist federal immigration enforcement.” 

[8] “Immigration: the Laken Riley bill advances,” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 17. 

[9] Senator John Fetterman  (D-Pennsylvania) quoted in ibid.   

[10] Laken Riley Act – Wikipedia 

Redeemable.

            Experts are gravely concerned about the state of the Defense Department and of America’s military forces.[1]  In a nutshell, it is doubted that the United States could win a conventional war with a great power opponent, by which is meant China.  We need an honest and probing discussion of these issues.[2]  Instead, Peter Hegseth’s nomination for Secretary of Defense unleashed a cloudburst of moral indignation about his philandering,[3] possible sexual assault, drinking, opposition to women serving in combat arms, and proven inability to organize even a two-car parade.[4]  Hegseth himself talked about restoring a warrior culture and “lethality” to American forces, in part by dismantling D.I.E. initiatives.[5]  Much less senatorial and press attention was devoted to his views on issues of budgeting, recruitment,[6] threat assessments, and strategy.  Then there was the charge that Hegseth “has also defended soldiers convicted of war crimes and urged their pardon, which puts our military’s honor at risk.”[7]  Indeed, he did.[8]  Again, the politics of personalities took pride of place.  (Lots of ‘literation let loose.)  Initially, many Republican senators found the allegations “very disturbing.”  Many people thought that he would go the way of the failed nominee for Attorney, Matt Gaetz.[9]  In response, Hegseth confessed that “I have failed in things in my life, and thankfully I’m redeemed by my Lord and Savior Jesus.”  However, President Trump dug in behind Hegseth.  After an intense lobbying effort,[10] Hegseth won confirmation by the narrowest margin possible.  If he fails as Secretary of Defense,[11] we’re all liable to be redeemed by his Lord and Savior. 


[1] For an alarming report, see: “The System Is Blinking Red” 2. | waroftheworldblog  For well-informed discussions of some specific issues, see: Ep 169: Dmitry Filipoff on Naval Warfare in 2025 | Nebulous; Ep 165: Shyam Sankar on a Defense Reformation | Nebulous; Ep 161: Mackenzie Eaglen on China’s Military Spending and Ours | Nebulous  I am grateful to my son, Evan Hill, for alerting me to Aaron Maclean and his  podcast “School of War.” 

[2] See the testimony to Congress of Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin (ret.).  Bing Videos 

[3] In one sense, this preoccupation is justified, rather than (OK, as well as) purely salacious.  Adultery is barred by the Uniform Code of Military Justice.  Hegseth would be the civilian chief of an organization whose military personnel are required to live under a moral code he has had great difficulty acknowledging.  See: UCMJ Adultery: Punishment For Cheating In The Military

[4] “Senators grill Hegseth, other Trump nominees,” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 5. 

[5] See the column by Bret Stephens, “D.E.I. Will Not Be Missed,” NYT, 29 January 2025. 

[6] Male recruitment has fallen by about 22 percent since 2015.  Female recruitment has not surged enough to make up the difference.  In any case, too many volunteers cannot meet the threshold qualifications for physical fitness and health (physical fitness).  They are rejected before they can flunk out of Basic Training.  “Noted,” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 16 

[7] Editorial in WSJ, quoted in “Senators grill Hegseth, other Trump nominees,” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 5.

[8] At the same time, it is uncomfortable at the least to observe the posturing on this matter by journalists and politicians.  One chief subject of Hegseth’s lobbying was Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher.  Gallagher was charged with—among other crimes—the murder of a wounded ISIS prisoner in Iraq.  Gallagher was on his eighth deployment.  The Defense Department doesn’t send SEALs (or Army Rangers) to guard convoys or the perimeter of airfields.  They send them into high-stress situations.  They do it repeatedly.  Someone is bound to crack.  Then they get court-martialed.  What about the civilian and military command structure that sent them?  In any event, see Eddie Gallagher (Navy SEAL) – Wikipedia 

[9] “Trump taps ‘Deep State’ critic Patel to lead FBI,” The Week, 13 December 2024, p. 4. 

[10] Some of which targeted Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), herself an Army National Guard veteran who served in Kuwait during the Iraq War.  Reportedly, some the pressure got ugly and went beyond normal jawboning or horse-trading.  “GOP senators fall in line behind Trump’s pick,” The Week, 20 December 2024, p. 5. 

[11] What am I saying, “If”?  He isn’t Bob Gates. 

Diary of the Second Addams Administration 1.

            President Donald Trump has been inaugurated.  I didn’t watch the inauguration, but I don’t watch any political speeches.  They’re all just flannel.  Well, truth be told, I did see a little bit of it.  Thing ran over into the news slot as if it was something important like a football game.  Trump was signing Executive Orders with a Sharpie.  Here we have a lesson.  If you ever see a president signing laws or Executive Orders, he’s doing it at his desk in the West Wing; then he hands the pens to the well-dressed (but not too well because we wouldn’t want to lose the common touch) politicians and dignitaries who have been invited into the presidential sanctum.  Trump diverged from traditional practice.[1]  He signed on the little stage in the Capitol, in front of an audience of his supporters.  Then he tossed the collection of pens into the crowd one by one.  Ordinary Americans (well, OK, “Trump supporters”), not a bunch of inside-the-Beltway lifers, got the souvenir pens.  Symbolic. 

            President Joe Biden went off into a dignified retirement after attending the inauguration.  Examining the entrails of the Democrats’ November 2024 disaster, some reporters tried an early assessment of the 46th President.  He ran in 2020 and again in 2024 to prevent Donald Trump from having a second term.  Succeeded the first time, then failed the second time said one.  He committed one long series of unforced errors, said another.  There was the retreat from Afghanistan; there was the border crisis; and there was the decision to run for re-election.  That list isn’t long enough, claimed two others.  Biden promised, and then failed, to govern as a centrist and healer of a divided nation.  In office, he veered hard left with inflationary financing of an expansive legislative program, an open border, sponsorship of D.I.E. policies, and characterizing Republicans as “semi-fascist.”[2] 

            Others sprang to Biden’s defense.  According to one, Biden made Covid vaccination widely available; he gave Ukraine enough arms and aid to “fight invading Russian troops to a stalemate”; and he spent $1.9 billion of new money on his favored projects.  He just had a messaging problem, said another.  Voter will be sorry they voted for Trump predicted a third.[3] 

            Biden’s reputation will be harmed by revelations of how his confidants managed his decline to deceive the public.[4]   Right at the moment, ordinary Americans take a dim view of Biden.  A recent Gallup poll reported that more than half (54 percent) of respondents think that Biden will go down in history as a below-average or poor president; 26 percent see him as average; 19 percent believe that he will be seen as above average or outstanding.[5] 

            So, “Let the Games of the Forty-Seventh Presidency Begin.” 


[1] Doubtless once again bursting through “the guardrails of our democracy.”  The NYT is a HOA, as well as other, more admirable things.  Dwight Manfredi vs. HOA 🫣 Tulsa King (Season 2) 

[2] The writers are Matt Lewis in The Hill, Anthony Zurcher in BBC News, Bret Stephens in the NYT, and Ruy Texeira in The Free Press.  All cited in “President Biden: How will history judge his legacy?” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 6. 

[3] Eugene Robinson in the Washington Post; Peter Coy in NYT; and Doyle McManus in Los Angeles Times.  All cited in “President Biden: How will history judge his legacy?” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 6.

[4] See: How the White House Functioned With a Diminished Biden in Charge – WSJ; How Biden’s Inner Circle Worked to Keep Signs of Aging Under Wraps – WSJ

[5] “Poll Watch,” The Week, 17 January 2025, p. 17. 

American Death Rates and the Improvement Thereof.

            I’m just copying this from a reliable source[1] that might not have come to your attention.  Some explanatory annotations have been added.  These are identified by “NB:” 

Figure 1—Age Adjusted Central Death Rates

by Sex and Calendar Year

U.S. Census longevity tables. 

            Basically, the death rate fell from about 2,500 per 100,000 people in the first two decades of the 20th century to about 1,000 (male) and 700 (female) per 100,000 people in the first two decades of the 21st Century.  Progress, no? 

A number of extremely important developments have contributed to the rapid average rate of mortality improvement during the twentieth century. These developments include:

  • Access to primary medical care for the general population.  NB: The “medical revolution” from the mid-19th Century on, then the creation of systems of medical insurance. 
  • Improved healthcare provided to mothers and babies.
  • Availability of immunizations.  NB: First, Edward Jenner and his successors, then “Big Pharma.” 
  • Improvements in motor vehicle safety.  NB: First, Ralph Nader, then the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. 
  • Clean water supply and waste removal.  NB: Municipal water and sewage systems created from the later 19th Century onward.  See also: the “medical revolution.” 
  • Safer and more nutritious foods.  NB: First, Upton Sinclair, The Jungle, then the Food and Drug Administration.  No more finding a severed human thumb in your block of chewing tobacco—when it’s too late. 
  • Rapid rate of growth in the general standard of living.  NB: First, Industrialization, then the “distributive state.” 

Each of these developments is expected to make a substantially smaller contribution to annual rates of mortality improvement in the future.  [NB: That is, these improvements have squeezed out most of their gains, so progress will move at a slower pace. 

Future reductions in mortality will depend upon such factors as:

  • Development and application of new diagnostic, surgical and life sustaining techniques.
  • Presence of environmental pollutants. NB: The Environmental Protection Agency.
  • Improvements in exercise and nutrition.  NB: grocery shop around the outer rim of the store; got to the gym or go for a walk. 
  • Incidence of violence.  NB: Homicide rates have fluctuated a good deal, but we live in a less violent society than we once did.  Roger Lane, Murder in America: A History (1997) is a good guide.  Lane argues that the late 19th-early 20th Century drop in murder rates owed a lot to the creation of ordering institutions (like schools) that taught emotional repression, and the creation of lots of jobs that rewarded steadiness. 
  • Isolation and treatment of causes of disease.  NB: By “isolation” I take them to mean “identification.”  That’s produced by scientific research.  Metastatic breast cancer killed my first wife.  I would really like it if somebody made it go away. 
  • Emergence of new forms of disease.  NB: It’s going to happen.  See: Covid; see: Laurie Garrett, The Coming Plague: newly emerging diseases in a world out of balance (1994) and Betrayal of Trust: the Collapse of Global Public Health (2003). 
  • Prevalence of cigarette smoking.  NB: There’s already a lot less of it than there used to be.  Unless you live in China of course. 
  • Misuse of drugs (including alcohol).  NB: JMO, but I think most people have a “dimmer switch” when it comes to non-opioid drugs and alcohol, but some people only have an “on-off” switch.  How to tell the difference before the problem gets serious and what to do about it?  In any event, temperance societies did a lot to reduce alcohol abuse during the 19th Century, but Prohibition just made people angry and defiant.  Lesson here? 
  • Extent to which people assume responsibility for their own health.  NB: There are limits to what the government can compel you to do. 
  • Education regarding health.  NB: Sure put a dent in smoking.  Why is over-eating leading to Type II diabetes different?  Seems to be and Ozempic-type stuff may be the best treatment for now. 
  • Changes in our conception of the value of life.  NB: Sad to say, this murky phrase beats me. 
  • Ability and willingness of our society to pay for the development of new treatments and technologies, and to provide these to the population as a whole. 

NB: All of this collides with the current crisis of authority being suffered by elites, experts, and expertise.  Perhaps that is just a mood and will pass.  But there have been real failings among elites and experts.[2]  Perhaps those failings will need to be addressed before confidence in elites and experts can be re-established. 


[1] See: Life Tables 

[2] The opioid epidemic (1990s onward); the failure to discern or prevent 9/11/2001; the decision to attack Iraq, then the botched occupation (2003); the housing market bubble and the resulting financial crisis (2008-2009), followed by the “Great Recession”; the “replication crisis” in natural and social sciences (2010s onward); the problematic management of China’s participation in the World Trade Organization (2001 to the present).  Just a start at a list. 

Manosphere.

According to one student of these matters, “Legacy media is dying.”[1]  (Committing suicide might be closer to the mark.[2])  readers have fled the daily newspapers and viewers the network television news.  Expertise is deeply discounted.  What has taken/will take its place?  The commonly offered bogeyman is the fractured, unregulated, irresponsible internet.  Any idiot can spread his/her/their opinion, and many do.[3]  That monster is hydra-headed. 

One head rears in the “manosphere.”  It emerged as a reaction against hostile interpretations—chiefly by men–of “political correctness,”[4] “wokeness,”[5] “cancel culture,”[6] and feminism.[7]  Many conservative commentators took aim at all of these in elite publications.  What normal or ordinary people take any notice of elite sources, conservative or progressive?  However, schools and corporate human relations departments gobbled up the new thought.  Many young men felt bruised by the deprecation of traditional forms of manly behavior they encountered in school and at work.[8] 

The “Manosphere” emerged out of this reaction.[9]  It is a social media world that strongly attracts certain young men.  Not a few either.  Joe Rogan,[10] the Big Honcho of this circus, has 14.5 million followers for his podcast on Spotify, and 200 million downloads a month.[11]  In his earlier life, Rogan was a Mixed Martial Artist (MMA), a stand-up comic, and a host for the television show “Fear Factor.”  Since 2009, he has hosted “The Joe Rogan Experience.”[12] 

Rogan fills his shows with discussions of “comedy, mixed martial arts, alternative medicine, aliens, and psychedelic drugs.”  His competitors “banter about sports, fighting, women, pop culture, and video games.”[13]  Sometimes he strays into broadly politically-charged topics.  Rogan’s been called on some of his statements.  He’s responded by saying that he’s a “f…ing moron” and that no one should see him as “a respected source of information.” 

We need better versions of both “manliness” and “credible news.”  Abuse won’t do it. 


[1] Seton Hall professor of Communications Jess Rauchberg, quoted in “Joe Rogan’s world,” The Week, 13 December 2024, p. 11.    

[2] See ABC World News Tonight with David Muir Full Broadcast – Jan. 23, 2025, especially the second half of the show with the apparently obligatory stories on shootings with dramatic film; bad weather headed East with pictures of jack-knifed semis; non-fatal trauma in the skies or at the airport with dramatic film; courtroom report from a lurid crime; celebrity news, especially if it involves a product of ABC’s owner, Disney; and a heart-warming story under the label of “America Strong.”  Or you can follow Holman Jenkins’ columns in the WSJ upbraiding mainstream print journalism for its stupidity and bias in the treatment of Donald Trump, a politician whom Jenkins abhors. 

[3] Look at me.  I’ve got a WordPress account and an internet connection. 

[4] See: Political correctness – Wikipedia  Itself a model of political correctness.  Also, Inclusive language – Wikipedia 

[5] See: Woke – Wikipedia 

[6] See: Cancel culture – Wikipedia 

[7] See: Wells for Boys – SNL – YouTube  No, you really gotta! 

[8] See: After Dark – Fight Club | REJECT WEAKNESS, EMBRACE MASCULINITY    

[9] It appears to be an appropriation of the earlier British “Lad culture.”  Lad culture – Wikipedia  The following seems to capture the moment.  Chumbawamba – Tubthumping – YouTube   A new “British invasion.” 

[10] See: Joe Rogan – Wikipedia 

[11] “Joe Rogan’s world,” The Week, 13 December 2024, p. 11. 

[12] For a brief clip of Rogan, see: All Shooters Have One Thing In Common | Joe Rogan & Michael Shellenberger  For a full episode, see: Joe Rogan Experience #2260 – Lex Fridman  Rogan’s interviews run for about three hours and are unstructured.  Donald Trump sat for one.  Joe Biden, understandably, did not.  Oddly, neither did Harris. 

[13] “Joe Rogan’s world,” The Week, 13 December 2024, p. 11.