Palestine Drumbeats.

Posted on by
Reply

Conservatives have their knives are out for President Biden, no matter how unseemly this may be at a time of international crisis.  In Israel, the parties have closed ranks during this moment of national emergency.  Not so in the United States. 

One line of conservative criticism runs as follows.  President Biden came to office intending, in part, to replace great-power politics with a heavy emphasis on alternative priorities.  First and foremost, this meant climate change, but also included a renewed emphasis on human rights as these are understood in the Democratic party.  Before Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the President hoped to “park” Russia as an issue. 

He also harbored a grand vision for the Middle East, one which would allow the United States to reduce its involvement there in favor of the Far East.  On the one hand, he hoped to revive a working relationship with Iran, wrecked by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the multi-national nuclear agreement.  On the other hand, he hoped to accelerate the “normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations.”  This new regional axis of….[1] would encourage other Arab states to do the same.  Implicitly, the alignment could shoulder more of the burden of against Iran. 

In the conservative view, which is also that of Israel, Iran has disdained President Biden’s offer of a renewed relationship.  It refused to rejoin the nuclear agreement.  It wrung $6 billion out of American control as the price for releasing a handful of hostages.  Now, the conservative argument goes, “there is no doubt that Iran trained, supported, advised and equipped the [Hamas] killers.”[2]  Iran’s goals, it is said, are regional rather than centered on Gaza or even Palestine.  The war between Israel and Hamas, once begun, may be stoked up into a much wider conflict.  Israel, the United States, and America’s friends in the Middle East will find themselves assailed from all sides. 

All or most of this could be true.  The vast quantity and improved quality of the missiles fired at Israel by Hamas seems to indicate a big up-grade in Iran’s support for aggressive action by Hamas.  Still, critics stop short of saying that Iran planned or incited the attacks.  Hamas seems to be dominated by brutal fanatics.  Brutal fanatics aren’t necessarily stupid.[3]  It isn’t impossible to imagine that a more competent class of fanatics has emerged in the leadership Hamas.  Maybe they figured out that it would be necessary to blind Israeli intelligence by stopping telecommunications and “playing back” Palestinian informants of Israel’s intelligence services.  Maybe they figured out on their own the many vulnerabilities in the border defenses of an evidently complacent Israel.  Israel’s leaders (and perhaps many ordinary Israeli) are not going to be comfortable admitting that “we got played by a bunch of Arabs.” 

We’ve been here before.  It was 2003 and the “undoubted” enemy was Iraq.  The “intelligence” said Iraq posed a real danger from its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, and even of nuclear weapons.  Conservatives clamored for action.  Respected foreign policy Gumbys among the Democrat leadership[4] supported action.  It didn’t end well. 

So, some kind of action against Iran may well be necessary.  But slow any rush to war. 

[1] Axis of what?  The Serpent Prince and Benjamin Netanyahu?  Hard to label that when children might be reading. 

[2] Walter Russell Mead, “Hamas’s Global Test for Biden,” WSJ, 10 October 2023. 

[3] See: The Second World War. 

[4] Notably Joe Biden, John Kerry, Hilary Clinton, Chuck Schumer, and Diane Feinstein. 

Gaza Plan of Attack.

Posted on by
Reply

            Problem: invade the Gaza Strip and destroy the Hamas army while doing as little physical harm[1] to the civilian population as possible. 

            Solution. 

  1. Try to separate the Hamas troops from the bulk of the civilian population.  Continue to urge the civilian population to abandon the Gaza City area in northern Gaza.  Do nothing more to impede the movement of civilians southward.  Step up the use of “roof knocks” on buildings to encourage people to move.  Once as many people as possible have moved, the attack phase can begin. 
  2. Begin sustained air attacks on targets between the northern boundary of Gaza and the northern districts of Gaza City.  Mass a large force opposite these targets.  The initial goal is to fix the attention of Hamas commanders on the northern and northeastern flanks of Gaza. 
  3. Launch a powerful combined-arms (air, armored, infantry) attack northeastward from a staging area west of the Israeli community of Be’eri.  The axis of advance will run from the Wadi Gaza on the left to the Karni Netzarim road on the right.  Speed is essential.  The goal is to capture control of a broad corridor from the land border of Gaza to the Mediterranean Sea.  Both faces of the corridor will need to be rapidly fortified with open ground created in front of both lines. 
  4. This stroke is intended to isolate the main body of Hamas fighters in northern Gaza and the largest number of civilians in the southern sector.  The two areas can then be treated in different fashions. 
  5. In the south, the United Nations can be invited to launch a rapid and large-scale relief effort within the context of Israel’s security needs.  The basic conditions of Israel’s proclaimed siege can be ameliorated.  At the same time, remaining Hamas fighters in the southern sector can be neutralized. 
  6. In the north, Israel will have two choices.  The first is to maintain the siege until the Hamas troops are compelled to lay down their arms by hunger and thirst.  Much fighting around the outside of this “cauldron” will take place.  The second is to strike rapidly with overwhelming force.  Air strikes and artillery will do most of the work by leveling buildings believed to contain Hamas troops.  Careful follow-up movements by ground forces will secure control of the ground. 

[1] The psychological harm and the destruction of physical and economic infrastructure will be immense. 

Laws of War.

Posted on by
Reply

            “The laws of war offer a guide to what matters most, and to what should happen next.”[1]  First, the “why” and the “how” of war are different, separate things.  Opponents may have a just or unjust cause, but nothing allows either side to wage war in an unjust way.  Second, “civilians are entitled to protection.”  However, “protection” does not mean that civilians must escape unscathed from a conflict.  It means that military forces can neither specifically target civilians nor inflict disproportionate harm on them when harm cannot be avoided. 

            “There is no question” that Hamas has committed “war crimes and crimes against humanity,…  Those are not close calls.”[2]  In addition to targeting mostly civilians for death, Hamas soldiers seized at least 150 hostages whom it has threatened to execute.  According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, this is not allowed under international law. 

            On the other hand, according to the U.N. High Commissioner, the “imposition of sieges that endanger the lives of civilians by depriving them of goods essential for their survival is prohibited under international humanitarian law.”  In the view of one expert, Israel’s siege of Gaza is both “a crime against humanity and a war crime.”  On top of the siege, Israel has been raining down bombs on buildings in Gaza.  Israel asserts that they are striking military targets hidden among the civilian population.  Citing another expert on international law, the NYT reports that “even attacks on legitimate military targets are illegal if they disproportionately harm civilians.”  Claiming that some act of violence will reduce future violence is not an acceptable rationale.  Admittedly, deciding what is proportional is not an exact science. 

            All this seems admirable in theory[3] and with deep historical roots.[4] 

It is also wildly out of touch with reality.   

First, Hamas is a government in control of a micro-state, not a finite outlaw gang.  This guarantees Hamas an existential continuity which insures that its policies will continue.  Hamas is committed to destroying the state of Israel, rather than to co-existing with it.  Hamas has repeatedly attacked Israel.  The people of Gaza are either captives of that government or supporters of it.  International law–and lawyers–offer no solution to this problem. 

Second, Hamas forces hide their soldiers and offensive weaponry among civilians.  They do so for two purposes.  One is to camouflage them from Israel’s observation.  “The better to eat you with, my dear.”[5]  The other is to use the civilians as human shields to limit pre-emptive or counter-attacks by Israel.  Israel has now warned the civilians to evacuate north Gaza; Hamas has ordered them to remain.  Israel is seeking to spare the lives of civilians it hates; Hamas to sacrifice lives of civilians it claims to represent and to love. 

[1] Amanda Taub, “Binding Laws of War Already Being Broken,” NYT, 13 October 2023. 

[2] Professor Tom Dannenbaum, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, “an expert on humanitarian law” quoted by Taub. 

[3] Most Americans should repent the decision by the George W. Bush administration to treat captured al Qaeda fighters as “unlawful combatants” not subject to the Geneva Conventions.  Better they had been considered P.O.W.s protected by those international agreements and held until the conclusion of a peace treaty with al Qaeda. 

[4] In the Early Middle Ages, the Latin Church sought to limit the overwhelming violence by declaring “The Peace of God” (banning attacks on clergy, Church property, and holy days) and “The Truce of God” (banning war on some days of the week and during an expansive number of parts of the year).  The truces were backed by the threat of excommunication.  This was rather more effective power than is now possessed by the U.N. or international law. 

[5] The Brothers Grimm, “Little Red Riding Hood.” 

Eliminating Hamas,

Posted on by
Reply

            As a practical matter, how would Israel eliminate Hamas? 

            First, what does “eliminate” mean?  Does it mean forcing all Hamas fighters to leave Gaza for somewhere else more distant from Israel?  Israel has tried this before.  In 1972, the government of Jordan got fed up with the Palestine Liberation Organization, which used Jordan as a base for attacks on Israel and which threatened to take over Jordan.  Under military pressure, the PLO evacuated to Lebanon.  South Lebanon and Beirut became the PLO’s bases going forward.  In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon and drove on Beirut.  The goal was to force the PLO to leave Lebanon.  This part of the operation proved successful.[1]  Popular support for the PLO declined substantially during this exile.  The 1993 Oslo Accords allowed the PLO to return to Gaza and the West Bank. 

Where would the Hamas fighters go?  It is hard to imagine.  Most Arab states have made some sort of peace—formal or informal–with Israel, so the old sympathy for the Palestinian cause may have shrunk.  Many of these countries have their own plates full of problems.  Whose situation would be improved by taking in thousands of Iran-related militants?  Also, it would have to be a country without a shared border with Israel.  Otherwise, it would just recreate the current Gaza situation or maybe something even worse for Israel’s security.  It would need to be at a remove from most of the Palestinian population.  Iran might be the ideal choice. 

Or does it mean killing or capturing most or all Hamas fighters?  This would be hard to choke down, even for a justifiably enraged Israel.[2]  Foreign countries, even the United States but especially the other Arab countries, would gag on what would soon be called Israel’s “final solution to the Hamas problem.”  There is much to be lost, as well as gained from this approach. 

            Second, regardless of what “eliminate” means, how would Israel bring about this goal?  One answer would be to besiege Gaza until it surrenders on Israel’s terms.  This seems to be where Israel is headed at the moment.  Cut off food, water, electricity, and fuel.  Bomb the place until the rubble bounces.  One problem is that this is already creating a highly public humanitarian catastrophe.  Furthermore, it is indiscriminate in punishing all Gazans.  It will generate enormous pressure on Israel from abroad to compromise.  Compromise would leave Hamas able to claim a form of victory.  No doubt worthless international “guarantees” of Israel’s security would be offered. 

            Another answer would be to invade Gaza.  There is the potential for an Arab Stalingrad, but with huge numbers of civilians present.  As is the case with the United States, Israel doesn’t like to take high casualties.  Rather than engaging in door-to-door fighting, Israel might prefer air strikes and artillery fire.  One goal might be to herd everyone toward the beaches.  Israeli soldiers advancing across the rubble could identify, disarm, and capture surviving Hamas fighters.  It might bring Israel a form of victory faster. 

            “Sympathy has a short half-life,” so Israel needs to move quickly. 

[1] On “Operation Peace for Galilee, see 1982 Lebanon War – Wikipedia  On one awful related incident, see Sabra and Shatila massacre – Wikipedia 

[2] The population of the United States is about 330 million people; the population of Israel is about 10 million people.  The current estimated Israel death toll is about 1,200 people.  The equivalent death toll in the United States would be something like 35,000 people.  There were 2,977 victims on 9/11. 

Say What You Mean.

Posted on by
Reply

Is this what a “Two-State Solution” would look like?

Today’s New York Times headline reads “Palestinian Militants Stage Attack on Israel” (New York Times, 8 October 2023.) But they’re only “militants” because 1) Arab Palestine isn’t a sovereign state, yet; and 2) Hamas hasn’t extended its control from Gaza to the West Bank, yet. The headline could more accurately state “Palestinian Army Attacks Israel.” Or, if one wanted to be more accurate still and was running a little hot, “Palestinian Army ‘Pearl Harbors’ a Dozing Israel.”

A Two-State Solution will not bring peace. It will put an Iranian client-state on two frontiers (Gaza, West Bank) of Israel. It will put an Iranian client state (Palestine) on one frontier of Jordan, while a second Iranian client state (Iraq) may develop on another frontier.

What is the United States to do about Iran? Israel will certainly see Iran’s hand in this attack. This will be all the more the case if the reports of Hezbollah attacks on Israeli positions on the Golan Heights are accurate. What will Saudi Arabia make of the attacks? Will it promote a reconciliation with Israel or will harsh measures against the Gaza base of Hamas alienate the Saudis? Some Democrats had begun to press for concessions to Palestinians as part of any American-brokered Saudi-Israel agreement. Will they stick to that position? Possibly become more anti-Israel as they watch apartment buildings implode on their televisions?

Also, the attack by Hamas will paper-over the deep divisions in Israel, but for how long? Those divisions are not merely superficial. A wartime “civic truce” isn’t going to resolve them. Over the long term, it might even make them worse.

Movies About War at Sea Brown on Resolution.

Posted on by
Reply

“As so often with [C. S.] Forester’s novels, the action takes place against a background of carefully researched historical fact.”[1]  Leaving aside his “Horatio Hornblower” saga, there are four novels by C. S. Forester[2] about naval warfare in the World Wars.  Three have been made into good movies.  One, inexplicably, has not.  The first of them is Brown on Resolution.

            Historically, great sea battles between enemy fleets were a comparative rarity.[3]  More often, the fleets were either blockading enemy ports or being blockaded in port.  If what you’re after is exciting portrayals of human character and military drama, then put your money on lone ships or small squadrons engaged in cruiser warfare or special assignments.  Such was Forester’s knowledge and talent, that he could portray both ends of the spectrum with great skill.[4] 

In 1929, Forester published a novel called Brown on Resolution.  It is set within the historical context of the cruise of the German Far Eastern Squadron at the start of the First World War.  Two cruisers and three light cruisers set out to commit as much “mischief”—in the words of their commander–as they could before being destroyed.  The battles of Coronel (a German victory) and the Falklands (a British victory) followed. 

One cruiser, the “Emden,” had been detached to cruise on its own.  Over the course of two months in the Indian Ocean, it sank more than twenty merchant ships, a French destroyer, and a Russian cruiser.  Then the “Emden” ran for the Pacific with the British hot on its heels.  The British caught up with the “Emden” at Cocos Island and shot it to bits. 

Forester imagines a lone German ship, the “Zeithen,” standing in for the “Emden.”  After sinking a British warship, the German cruiser picks up a few survivors.  Then it seeks an isolated port in which to repair battle damage.  With the “Zeithen” holed up at Resolution Island in the Galapagos, one of the British prisoners, Albert Brown, escapes from the ship armed with a German rifle and ammunition.  He delays the German effort to complete repairs, all the while eluding German search parties.  Brown succeeds in delaying the Germans for a few days.  Brown is killed by a shot from the departing Germans, who emerge from harbor to find British warships licking their chops.  The kicker is that Brown is the illegitimate son of the British commander.

The book was turned into a movie twice, once in 1935 (“Brown on Resolution,” dir. Walter Forde) and then in 1953 (“Sailor of the King,” dir. Roy Boulting).[5]  You can watch the latter at Bing Videos 

            In real life, the captain of the “Emden” had detached men under his First Lieutenant, to destroy a radio station on a neighboring island.  They survived the battle, seized a local schooner, and made a 1,700 mile voyage to meet up with a German supply ship in the Indian Ocean.  Thence, Arabia and overland to Germany.  Yes, there’s a movie: Bing Videos  In German, alas. 

[1] Brown on Resolution – Wikipedia 

[2] On whom, see: C. S. Forester – Wikipedia  JMO, but Hornblower and the Hotspur is the best of a crowded field. 

[3] Salamis, Lepanto, the scattering of the Spanish Armada, Trafalgar, Jutland, Midway. 

[4] Again JMO, but Patrick O’Brian’s wonderful “Aubrey/Maturin” novels are about all sorts of things other than war at sea, a subject about which the author knew little. 

[5] After the Second World War, a bunch of British studios made movies with greater or lesser American stars as part of the cast.  Probably they thought that this would help them in the American market.  What to do about Americans playing British characters?  Pretend that the character is a Canadian!  Brilliant, so long as everyone is willing to believe that Canadians speak with American accents.  Can’t have been good for British-Canadian relations, eh? 

Movies about War at Sea The Cruel Sea.

Posted on by
Reply

            All war is a vast enterprise.[1]  The two World Wars were fought all over the globe and affected almost all peoples, regardless of whether their own countries joined the fighting.  Representing in art such gigantic passages of history poses all sorts of challenges. 

            A common solution is to focus attention on a small group of people involved in some kind of significant action.  Audiences need characters who are interesting to them, people with whom they can identify or sympathize.  For example, the “Day of Days” episode of “Band of Brothers” is far more compelling than “The Longest Day.” 

            Movies about war at sea can meet this need: even the largest ship is still a single unit; crews are small groups of [until recently] men from varied backgrounds and with varied temperaments who must learn to work together to survive and triumph.  “The Cruel Sea” (dir. Charles Frend,1953) offers an excellent example. 

Nicholas Monsarrat (1910-1979) started out as a journalist with a love of sailing; served in the Royal Navy during the Second World War as an officer on some of the “little ships” (corvettes, frigates) that guarded convoys of merchant ships in the Atlantic; and then became a writer after the war.  His novel The Cruel Sea (1951) accurately summarized his own war experience.  It became a hit and was turned into a movie. 

Charles Frend (1909-1977) graduated from Oxford and went right into the movie business.  He spent ten years editing other directors’ movies before he got the chance to direct himself.[2]  Since this opportunity came with the outbreak of the Second World War, Frend’s early experience included a couple of propaganda-for-the-Good-Cause movies.  One of these was the sea story “San Demetrio London” (1943).[3]  After the war, he made the British-stiff-upper-lip classic “Scott of the Antarctic” (1948).  Put the two movies together and Frend became the natural choice to direct “The Cruel Sea.”  He was an ordinary director, not a great director, but sometimes ordinary people can still achieve extraordinary things.[4] 

Thucydides tells us that “war is a stern teacher; in depriving [people] of the power of easily satisfying their daily wants, it brings most people’s minds down to the level of their actual circumstances.”  So it is with the sailors in this story.  Much of the service–herding merchant ships back and forth across the Atlantic–is monotonous and unglamorous.  The men are away from home for months at a time, sometimes returning to find that loved ones have been lost to them through war, accident, or loneliness.  At sea there is constant strain.  The North Atlantic is vast and violent, and men must stand their watches in all weather and at all hours.  The U-boats—the “hump-backed death below”–are hidden and deadly, and one of the ships is lost with most of the hands when torpedoed.   Some men crumble under stress.  Lieutenant Lockhart—Monsarrat—emerges from the war stronger, self-disciplined, self-confident, and with a deep respect for the sailors and the Navy personified by his wartime commander, Captain Erickson.

You can—and should–watch the movie at  Bing Videos 

[1] See: cliche definition – Search (bing.com) 

[2] The learning-by-doing approach to becoming a director preceded the film school approach without worse movies getting made.  Just saying. 

[3] San Demetrio London – Wikipedia  It’s sort of the reverse of the backstory to Conrad’s Lord Jim. 

[4] Which is what both “The Cruel Sea” and Britain’s story in the Second World War are all about. 

The foreign Policy of a Second Trump Administration.

Posted on by
Reply

            In his first term, President Donald Trump moved fast and broke things.  What would he do in a second term?[1]  That is a real guessing game since Trump is not deeply committed to sticking to what he says if he sees either a tactical advantage or a good laugh in changing course.  This doesn’t stop Walter Russell Mead from thinking about the future, and perhaps playing on the fears of both foreigners and Americans. 

            First of all, one has to accept that there are continuities between the first Trump term and the first Biden term.  The human rights and democracy-promotion agendas held no interest to President Trump; it has now gone by the boards with the Biden administration.[2]  It really difficult to get rid of autocrats because they are ruthless people with a strong grip on their security forces.  Of course, a democracy can always invade an autocracy to effect regime change.  The results may not be what the invaders expected.  Similarly, the Biden administration recognizes China as a military and economic rival in a way that Trump’s predecessors were not able to see.  While the Biden administration keeps sending emissaries to China to try to take the rough edges off the conflict, they aren’t willing to just surrender.  Then, a second Trump term would likely see government support for, rather than opposition to, the oil and gas industries.  To this would be added increased spending on weapons procurement and development for defense.  Mead sees this as the mirror image of President Joe Biden’s climate-change industrial policy.  The key point here is that both parties have entered a new era of government intervention in the economy.  Both men seek to create lots of working-class jobs that pay middle-class incomes. 

So, where would Trump differ from the Biden administration?  Mead lists some of the reasonably likely priorities of a second Trump administration.  Chief among them would certainly be a huge effort to stop immigration through the southern border.  Europe’s efforts along these lines have included deals with countries in a position to restrict or even stop such immigration.  Trump could well try to extract the same sort of thing from Central American countries.  This could involve paying people[3] with the power to slow or stop the immigration, or extorting compliance by some means.

Beyond that, things become much more speculative.  Trump could threaten to leave NATO if Germany and other European countries don’t increase their defense spending.  Trump could cut Ukraine adrift.  Trump could seek to strike some kind of “grand bargain” with Xi Jinping. 

            In any case, Trump appears to have “learned nothing and forgotten nothing” from his first term.  One effect will be on America’s allies.  They may have seen his first term as like a very ugly traffic accident.  It could be cleaned up, if not forgotten.  His re-election, and the thrall in which he holds so many Republican politicians, would argue that a critical and durable change has taken place in the direction of American foreign policy.  They would have to begin calculating how best to deal with a world of threats in which America is not a reliable partner from, regardless of which party is in charge. 

            Whoever wins in November 2024, the results will be momentous. 

[1] Walter Russell Mead, “A ‘Trumpier” Second-Term Foreign Policy,” WSJ, 3 October 2023. 

[2] See his reconciliation with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. 

[3] Would those “people” have to be governments or would a drug cartel do? 

We Got to Get Out of This Place If It’s the Last Thing We Ever Do.

Posted on by
Reply

            Just under one-sixth (16 percent) of Americans trust the Federal government.[1]  It isn’t just the government institutions that are troubling people. 

In an “a pox upon both your houses” evaluation, a recent CBS poll found that 54 percent of Americans see the Republicans as “extreme,” and the same percentage see the Democrats as extreme.  These two groups overlap to a degree, with 28 percent disapproving of both parties.  About the same number, 26 percent, say that having more political parties would make solving our problems easier.[2] 

            President Joe Biden hasn’t had the kind of calming effect that he seemed to promise during the 2020 campaign.  Partly, this may stem from his left-of-center policy program.[3]  Partly, it may stem from the appearance of new problems (Ukraine), the enlargement of pre-existing problems (refugees at the border), and the return of old problems once considered settled (abortion).  Partly, it may stem from the refusal of so many Republicans to let go of Donald Trump in spite of 6 January 2020.[4] 

A recent Pew poll found that 55 percent of Americans are angry about the current political situation and 65 percent are exhausted by it.  A mere 10 percent are excited about the political situation.  A little more than a quarter (27 percent) of Americans think that the political system as a whole is working “very” well or “somewhat” well.  That implies that almost three-quarters (73 percent) think that it is NOT working any flavor of “well.”  Most (63 percent) aren’t confident about its future (or Don’t Know, which seems to me to be the same thing as not confident).  Most Americans, some 64 percent, say that a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024 is proof of a “broken” political system.  On the one hand, two-thirds of people doubt that Joe Biden would have the physical or mental capacity to serve as an effective president in a second term.  On the other hand, better than half of Americans think that Donald Trump would be all too active and able in pursuing his goals in a second term. 

            Reading these figures, it is easy to believe that “America is desperate for a new beginning.”[5]  Trouble is that, while “America” may be ready, “Americans” are not.  If they were ready, Donald Trump would not have a 40 point bulge on the Seven Dwarves.  If they were ready, Joe Biden would have been persuaded to spend more time with his Addams-like family.  No serious insurgency has broken out in either party.  Instead, we’re waiting for the Grim Reaper to solve our problems.  In an Age of Medical Marvels at that. 

            Still, when and if it comes, what will that “new beginning” look like? 

[1] It is unclear exactly what people understand by “the Federal government.”  Do they mean all three branches or do they mean one or two branches of the government.  The bureaucracy of the Executive Branch can seem awkward and incapable, and even autocratic.  Congress is a monument to paralysis through divided government, and draws careerists like flies to…sugar.  The Judicial Branch has been the scene of politicization for decades as it has become a means to by-pass legislative impasses.  Now, over half (54 percent) of Americans distrust the Supreme Court.  The “Impeach Early Warren” bill-boards of yore have given way to the “Impeach Clarence Thomas” op-eds of today. 

[2] Nothing in European political systems, where this is common, suggests that it would make things better. 

[3] That program has involved a further expansion of deficit spending as part of his Inflation Act, his reliance upon reconciliation to ram through major legislation, and his resort of rule-writing to impose controversial policies. 

[4] I doubt that many Republicans would have accepted any of Biden’s actions as legitimate, even if he had continued every single Trump administration policy.  They want Orange Man. 

[5] William Galston, “America Is Desperate for a New Beginning,” WSJ, 27 September 2023. 

A World of Woe.

Posted on by
Reply

            The United States led the creation of a post-Second World War international system.  It initiated the creation of the United Nations (UN), the Bretton Woods international economic system, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the strategy of “containment” of aggressive Communism.  Along the way, the United States joined with its chief allies in an effort to create a “rules-based international order.”  This has been a remarkable achievement. 

            Now these achievements face new threats.[1] 

The UN is much disliked because it is much misunderstood.  It could never be a “world government,” merely a dignified place in which the great powers met to work out deals.  Other offices of the UN have sought to deal with improving living standards and health, and with assisting an ever-growing wave of refugees from political upheaval in the non-Western world.  Even this limited, useful role seems beyond its scope in recent decades. 

“Free trade” headed the agenda of economic policy makers for many decades after the Second World War.  Some of the greatest triumphs of that agenda, raising hundreds of millions of people out of poverty while promoting continual renovation of the advanced economies, finally raised a storm of reaction.[2]  The huge waves of unwanted immigrants swamping the borders of the United States and the European Union has become a divisive force in the democracies.  The immigrants are propelled by especially poverty in their home countries. 

Great powers—Russia and China—and middling powers—Iran and, North Korea—have embarked on campaigns against the American-led order.  Military power and the willingness to use it characterize this effort.  The Russian attack on Ukraine, the Chinese threats against Taiwan, and the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs all pose grave dangers.  It has proved difficult to discover effective responses to these threats.[3] 

Authoritarian governments are acting effectively on their agendas in some parts of the world.  Elsewhere the collapse of government is increasingly obvious.  Drug cartels seem to have the upper hand over nation-states in parts of Latin America.  In much of North Africa radical Islamist groups are hard to distinguish from criminal gangs in places where government has collapsed.  Libya offers a good example, but similar things are happening across the Sahel.[4] 

We face a host of troubles that resembles the Thirties.  Can we muster the resources and the resolve to sustain that better world the West once created? 

[1] Walter Russell Mead, “World Disorder Is Spreading Fast,” WSJ, 26 September 2023. 

[2] First the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), then the admission of China to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on favorable terms were seen as massively disruptive forces in the domestic economies of the advanced economies.  Progress had halted and even gone into reverse. 

[3] Neither the European countries nor the United States wants a shooting war with anyone.  There is always the danger of a nuclear war following on a conventional war.  Economic sanctions and as much military aid as possible has been provided to Ukraine, which serves as a Western proxy.  China is a military and economic threat, but it is also a major trading partner for many countries.  Reorienting trade is contentious, while rebuilding the military power to back-down any Chinese threat will take time and money that may not be available.  The Obama administration’s deal to pause Iran’s nuclear development both made sense and had a certain Mr. Micawber aspect to it.  Plastering North Korea with economic sanctions achieved nothing, but a pre-emptive attack on its nuclear program would just open a huge can of worms. 

[4] The logical conclusion will come when the first criminal enterprise became the actual ruler of a sovereign state.  People used to joke that Monaco was a “sunny place for shady people.”  What if it happens in Mexico?