Was Joe Biden at least semi-senile when he ran for President in 2020? Did he take advantage of the Covid emergency to campaign from the basement of his house in order to avoid too many public appearances?
Did leading figures[1] in the Democratic Party know this at the time. Did those leading figures choose to support Biden as a plausible alternative to Bernie Sanders not because they feared that Sanders could not win but because they feared that Sanders could win? First Trump, then Sanders: that would really upset the apple cart.
Did Joe Biden’s senility advance, perhaps rapidly, during his term as President.[2] Did he play an ever-smaller role in his Presidency? He continued to be adequate when reading from a Tele-Prompter. He had never been an electrifying public speaker, so he had a low bar to clear there. He avoided press conferences and extended interviews. Did key Administration officials– Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Janet Yellin, Lloyd Austin, the Director of National Intelligence officers doing the daily intelligence briefing[3]–see this decline?[4] Was there a group in the White House that assumed many of the functions of the Presidency to lighten the load for a beloved person?
Did leading figures in the Democratic Party (and possibly in the Republican Party as well) perceive the cognitive decline of President Biden?
Between 2020 and 2022, many ordinary observers had assumed that Biden would serve one term, then hand off to a younger generation. He had much younger leaders-in-waiting in his Cabinet: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Gina Raimondo. There were ambitious governors: Gavin Newsome, Gretchen Whitmer. Why not let them duke it out in a primary campaign, while Biden minded the store? Why was this not a good alternative?
Between 2022 and 2024, did Nancy Pelosi and others contemplate forcing Biden to bow out after he said that he would run for a second term? Was his decline not yet evident to them? Did they view it as a professional courtesy extended to a fellow gerontocrat? Did they fear that exposing the President would cast a shadow over the administration’s work during the first term? Did they fear that a knives-out primary fought against the backdrop of massive illegal immigration and rising prices would only produce harmful effects?[5]
Where they willing to “manage” a deficient President during a second term? While President Biden sought re-election, did they contemplate the possibility of his removal during his second term? That would have made Kamala Harris the first female President.
[1] I have great respect for Nancy Pelosi’s intelligence, realism, deep understanding of the American political system, self-control, ability to read other people, and ruthlessness. She closely resembles Margaret Thatcher, Angela Merkel, and Georgia Meloni. Had she been born a generation later, the United States already would have had its first woman President. Aside from party affiliation, she has nothing in common with Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris, and nothing at all in common with Nikki Haley. Obviously, the bar is lower for men. Can’t explain presidents like Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, or Barack Obama otherwise.
[2] The alternative would be to believe that Biden’s previously alleged “sharp as a tack” cognitive abilities suddenly collapsed during the week before his one debate with Donald Trump. I find that hard to credit. You?
[3] Would the DNI briefers report to their superiors any signs of mental decline?
[4] Certainly could explain why poor Karine Jean-Pierre, the Press Secretary, got frozen out of the policy discussions. She isn’t an old-time Biden person, so she might let something slip.
[5] When driving on an icy road, you should neither swerve nor bang the brakes hard.
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