In less than a week it will be the twenty-third anniversary of 9/11.  The memory of that attack by terrorists seems to be turning to empty tradition with the passage of time.  Yet, 9/11 sparked the “Forever Wars” (only recently concluded) and the “USA Patriot Act,” and some really bad country music.  One of the most remarkable things is how totally Americans have lost understanding of how a democracy may react to being blind-sided by “evil doers.” 

Writing on 2 August 2024, WSJ foreign affairs columnist Walter Russell Mead saw Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu successfully threading the needle.[1]  Mead believes that in the waning days of the Biden administration, its foreign policy team[2] hopes to prevent an expanded war in the Middle East.  Such a war would encompass a full-scale Hezbollah-Israel war and even war between Israel and Iran.  They fear that the United States would be drawn into such a conflict.  So, they are pushing hard for a cease-fire in Gaza and urging restraint on Israel. 

Mead also believes that Hamas, Turkey, and Iran hope to “bamboozle” the Biden administration into supporting a peace process that runs from a cease-fire to the creation of a Palestinian state in all but name, one in which Hamas holds the real power.  This effort might succeed because the “two-state solution” remains the goal of the Biden foreign policy team. 

            Recently, Israeli forces have killed Mohammed Deif (Hamas military commander); Fuad Shakr (Hezbollah military commander); and Ismail Haniyeh[3] (Hamas political leader).  These attacks threaten to stall efforts at a cease-fire in Gaza and to bring on the larger war with Iran.  Hence, Biden’s people are frustrated (or perhaps furious) with the actions of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Mead sees these killings as reassuring the Israeli public, which generally hates Hamas and Hezbollah.  The killings also give notice to the Gulf states that Israel remains a tough and skillful opponent.  The Gulf states are caught between Arab solidarity and a fear of Iran.  Signs of Israel buckling at the knees might send them scurrying to make nice with Iran.  The killings may have a deterrent effect. 

            Striking enemies when they rear their head may not be enough to bring Israel security over the long run.  Kamala Harris has no long-standing ties to Israel comparable to those which have long influenced the Democratic party.  The gory war to the knife in Gaza has appalled many people.  The division between supporters and critics of Israel now runs through the Democratic party.  A President Harris might prefer to hold Israel at arm’s length going forward.  With Iran close to breaking through to making nuclear weapons, a Harris administration might want to put all its efforts into achieving a last-minute return to the Obama administration’s agreement with Iran. 

            Mead wrote all this a month before Hamas killed six Israeli prisoners to prevent their rescue by Israeli troops.  The explosion of fury in a large part of Israel’s public has challenged Netanyahu’s policy and tenuous grip on power.  He refuses—so far–to give in.  His campaign to destroy Hamas grinds forward.  It brings Israeli troops ever closer to the remaining prisoners.  There may be more executions to come.  If so, there will be more massive demonstrations in the streets of Tel Aviv.  Perhaps this will be the final crisis for Netanyahu.  But not for Israel. 

[1] Walter Russell Mead, “Israel Brings Deterrence Back to the War on Terror,” WSJ, 2 August 2024. 

[2] Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, CIA Director William Burns. 

[3] Mohammed Deif – Wikipedia; Fuad Shukr – Wikipedia;  Ismail Haniyeh – Wikipedia