For quite some time now, United States government bonds were a global safe-haven when conditions got rocky somewhere else in the world.  This rested upon the belief that the US government could and would pay its IOUs.[1]  It has been easy for the United States to find lenders willing to buy Treasury bonds at lower rates of interest than might otherwise have applied. 

The consequences have been good or bad depending on how you look at it.  Various benefits for the United States flowed from the belief in the reliability of American public credit.  For one thing, the willingness to lend has eased the cost of the big deficits and growing national debt.  Americans have not had to strike a balance between taxes and spending. 

Furthermore, for those individuals who rely upon credit purchases, buying a car, or a house, or a lot of stuff at Walmart has been cheaper.  The reverse of the medal here is that all those foreigners who wanted dollar-denominated bonds raised the value of the dollar relative to the currencies of those other countries.  These “strong” dollars made imports cheapish.  This, too, eased the cost of consumption.[2]  OK, where did these foreigners get the dollars to buy Treasury bonds?  They got them by selling cheap goods to Americans.  Then they buy US Treasury bonds, which raises the value of the dollar, which makes their goods cheaper for Americans and American goods more expensive for everyone. 

Along the way, all those cheap imports first undercut, then destroyed, much of America’s manufacturing base.  If all it had done was wreck the American production of teddy-bears, we could live with that.  However, many of the goods now produced abroad are things like pharmaceuticals, computers, information/communications technology, and automobiles.  Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2000, China has been the main predator stripping the bones of the non-financial and non-entertainment sectors of the American economy.[3] 

As the national borrowing has increased, the size of the debt has grown to very high levels.  The debt can be regarded as solid so long as the United States has the will and the means to pay the interest, at least, on it.  The share of the interest payments in government spending has grown in recent years.  Partly, this reflects the sheer volume of the debt; partly, it reflects the higher interest rates charged to control the inflation. 

However, what if the debt or the interest rate on the debt grow so large, that the interest payment exceeds what Americans are willing and able to pay?  This has been a continual and growing theoretical concern among economists and investors for many years.  People will lend so long as they believe that they will be paid back.[4]  If they lose confidence, then they will try to get rid of their government I.O.U.s.[5]  (I don’t recall hearing any of this discussed in presidential debates.)  It is possible that the recent “retreat” from bonds is the first tremor of an earthquake.    

Or perhaps not.  A large share of the small group controlling global business and financial resources (countries, companies, banks) really dislike the current American economic policies.  So is also possible that this is just a warning shot.  Will people attend to the warning? 

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[1] Peter Goodman, “Trump Tariffs Shake Faith In the Safety of U.S. Bonds,” NYT, 14 April 2015. 

[2] Just for fun, go through all your stuff, from underwear to lap-tops and make a list of where everything comes from. 

[3] How do you fight a war with fictional “super heroes” dressed in Spandex and piles of money? 

[4] They will lend even when they suspect that they will not be paid back in full.  Under these conditions, they charge a “risk premium’ in the form of higher interest rates still.  Argentina, a notorious bad bet, pays high rates. 

[5] Maybe something like this.  Fire sale – Margin Call (2011)