Electricity went from being a cute pet trick in the 18th Century to being the vital energy of the later 19th and 20th Centuries. Electricity could power factory machinery in a far more flexible and efficient fashion than could steam-engines. Electricity came to play a direct part in the transformation process itself (steel, aluminum). Electricity could light cities and homes, and made possible telegraphs and telephones. Demand soared as more and more applications were created. Think about air conditioners, vacuum cleaners, microwave ovens, televisions. The 1950s and 1960s coincided with the growth of electricity consumption. Moreover, electricity became a politically-contested industry. It ended up being highly regulated.[1]
Then, about 2000, electricity generation plateaued. Electricity-consuming goods became more efficient; population growth slowed, and no new major consumers of electricity were created. Electricity consumption slowed to a crawl, rising only about 1 percent per year.
One effect of the plateauing is that electrical generators and transmitters cut back on physical plant and human capital, while shifting their energies into new ventures.
The electricity itself came from one of two sources. Some of it came from hydropower (damming rivers). First and foremost, it came from generators that burned carbon (wood, coal, oil, gasoline, natural gas). So electricity was “clean” at its end-point, but very “dirty” at its point of origin. So what? So environmental concerns grew increasingly powerful. No one quarreled much with the end-stage electricity. The creation-phase (generation) electricity caused great concern. Burning lots of carbon released greenhouse gases and promoted global warming.
The pursuit of efficiency has slowed, even stalled, the growth of carbon burning in many areas. The consumption of gasoline, jet fuel, and heating oil have all stopped rising since about 2000. No, it hasn’t made it go away. It’s just that the damage inflicted has been limited.
Now we seem on the cusp of a new expansion of electricity consumption. Things like data centers, new factories, and the response to global warming itself (electric cars, heat pumps) promise to push up the demand for electricity. The environmental concerns are increasingly pressing as a long-term concern.
What are the requirements of and constraints on non-carbon electricity generation? Non-carbon electricity generation means solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear power. Generation, transmission, distribution, and storage all cost a lot of money and pose technical problems.
The shift of the industry toward stability twenty years ago now impedes rapid expansion. Even building capacity. Things might go a different way. Then, the extensive regulations and shortage of workers also limits rapid expansion. A utility that has bet big on renewable energy faces a fight year wait before it can connect to the electrical power grid. A company can go bankrupt during the wait.
It seems unreasonable to suppose that outmoded political and social beliefs can hold back science and technology for very long. It also seems unreasonable to believe that lots of regulation can go hand in hand with lots of innovation.
[1] Greg Ip, “Electricity, Not Oil, Is Growth’s Engine,” WSJ, 28 March 2025.
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