Prologue to a Diary of the Second Addams Administration 11.

            The Agenda: Entitlements.  The financing systems for Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid have been crumbling for some time.  Exhaustion of the funding sources looms.  What to do?  For the Democrats, the standard answer has been “Make the rich pay their ‘fair share,’[1] then spend the money like a drunken sailor.”  For Republicans, the standard answer is “Dump the dependency-fostering bureaucratized systems in favor of sensible market-based solutions; you know, like Boeing and Wells Fargo.” 

            The Republican favorite, “Medicare Advantage” plans, are private health insurance plans that can be chosen by customers as an alternative to regular Medicare.  “Advantage plans” cover hospitalization and surgery, visits to doctor, prescription drugs, and vision, dental and hearing care.  They also limit out-of-pocket spending.[2] 

How do they do this?  They strive to be more efficient and cost-saving than regular Medicare.  For one thing, members are offered a more limited pool of network doctors to consult.  No insisting on the doctor whose manner or reputation you prefer.[3]  For another thing, they require prior authorization by the company for many treatments and services.  Insurance companies often refuse authorization for things that they regard as CYA or treatment-padding.[4]  Beyond these “sensible, market-based solution,” the plans are also accused of “up-coding” procedures.  That is, they turn whatever was done into something higher on the scale, the bill the government for the more costly thing.  Then there is the complaint that they deny services recommended for patients by doctors.  On the one hand, they increase the money paid by the government; on the other hand, they dodge around providing costly procedures. 

Then there is the touchy question of end-of-life spending.  Seventy percent of Americans die from a one or more chronic diseases.  The last few years of life often involve treatments for those chronic diseases.  This makes chronic diseases “the leading drivers of health care costs.”[5]  Almost 950,000 Americans die of heart disease or stroke every year; and more than 600,000 die from cancer.  Shedding end-of-life patients by denying them desired coverage could be good for the bottom line of Advantage Plans by pushing them to shift to Medicare.   

            The new administration may actually try to carry out a sweeping overhaul of entitlements.  They’re going to start with Medicare.  President-Elect Donald Trump has nominated Dr. Mehmet Oz to head the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).  Oz has a track-record of having supported the expansion of “Medicare Advantage” plans.  He also “criticized the drug industry over high prices” during his 2022 Senate campaign.  Will the new administration sustain, and build on, the Biden administrations negotiation of drug prices? 

            Leaving things just the way they are doesn’t seem like a good choice. 


[1] “Fair share” is never defined beyond my beloved sister-in-law’s “More, we’ll tell you when to stop.”  Honest. 

[2] “Dr. Oz: Expanding Medicare’s private option,” The Week, 6 December 2024, p. 33.

[3] This is a big issue for many people, but if you get hurt in a car wreck or have a heart attack, you go to the nearest ER.  Nobody says “I want to see MY doctor and I’ll wait until they’re available—don’t slip on the blood pooling on the floor.”  Why should it be different with an annual visit? 

[4] See, for example, Nicholas Bakalar, “Overtreatment is Common, Doctors Say,” NYT, 6 September 2017; Ryan Levi and Dan Gorenstein, “When routine medical tests trigger a cascade of costly, unnecessary care,” NPR, 14 June 2022, When routine medical tests trigger a cascade of unnecessary care : Shots – Health News : NPR 

[5] Fast Facts: Health and Economic Costs of Chronic Conditions | Chronic Disease | CDC 

Campaign Issues 2016 1.

Currently, Social Security faces two fundamental problems.[1]  One fundamental problem is that Social Security is based on a “pay-as-you-go” model: withholding taxes from people who are working pay for the retirement of people who are no longer working.  Fine.  If there are a lot of people working and a smaller number not working, then the system functions smoothly.  What if the number of people working declines relative to the number of those who are not working?  That’s more of a problem.  Taxes on those still working will have to rise to pay for those no longer working.  That is the situation in which Americans find themselves as the “Baby Boom” generation passes out of the work force and into the work-for-me force.

This problem has been around for a long time and people in authority have been trying to devise a solution for a long time.   In 1983 a bi-partisan commission investigated solutions.  Congress followed the commission’s recommendations by raising taxes and extending the age of full eligibility. That fixed the problem for a while, but—of course–“I’m back!”  In a report of 2015, the trustees reported that the Social Security trust fund will go broke in 2034, with the Social Security Administration able to pay less than 79 cents on the dollar of benefits.  In 2011-2012, President Barack Obama sketched a budget compromise agreement in which Social Security would be continually eroded by inflation.  The Republicans weren’t buying this idea.  Another solution, which could be combined with de-coupling Social Security benefits from the inflation index, would be to raise the cap on with-holding taxes.  Currently, only income below about $134,000 a year is subject to with-holding.  Raising that ceiling would generate a lot of revenue.  Taken together, these proposals probably offer a manageable means to solve the Social Security problem for the immediate future.

A second fundamental problem is that Social Security was never designed to be a full retirement pension.  It was meant to provide a basic income for retirees, who were expected to save from current income to pay for the bulk of their future retirement needs.  However, many members of the “Baby Boom” did not do any significant saving for their retirement.

Now, under the influence of the Bernie Sanders campaign, the Democrats have come out for expanding Social Security to make its benefits more generous.  Hillary Clinton has pledged to increase benefits for widows and for those who stop working to be care providers for children or sick family members; to resist reduction of cost-of-living increases; and to resist increasing the age for full eligibility.  She would pay for these increased benefits through higher taxes on the wealthy.  Still, even these proposals don’t go as far as the left wing of the party wants.  President Obama has remarked that “a lot of Americans don’t have retirement savings [and] fewer people have pensions they can really count on.”  How to make up for this lifetime lack of thrift?

Current proposals include increasing the benefits for all recipients while providing additional benefits for the uncertain number of the “most vulnerable”; and/or increasing cost-of-living adjustments to include medical costs.

Several questions arise out of these problems.  First, which “Baby Boomers” did not save and why did they not save?  Moral recriminations are going to be a part of this debate.  Second, what are these proposals likely to cost?  Third, how large a share of the well-off will have to be taxed more heavily?  Just the “1 percent” or the “5 percent” or anyone who did manage to save?  Fourth, do Americans want to transition Social Security from the current partial pension system to a full-blown national retirement system?   What would a long-term system require?

[1] Robert Pear, “Driven by Campaign Populism, Democrats Unite on Social Security Plan,” NYT, 19 June 2016.