Nate Cohn analyzes the very non-monolithic Republican Party a year out from 2024.[1] 

            “Newcomers” amount to one-twelfth (8 percent) of Republicans; are—obviously newcomers to the party and probably former Democrats; are diverse, with a large component of Hispanics (18 percent); see themselves as “moderates” or “liberals,” supporting abortion and transgender rights; are really exercised about the direction of both the economy and the country; and just hate the current “woke,” government-aggrandizing Democratic Party. 

            “Blue Collar Populists” amount to one-eighth (12 percent) of Republicans; are not-as-newcomers and refugees from the Democratic Party; mostly (75 percent) lack a college education;[2] are heavily concentrated in the Northeast; have assimilated legal abortion and marriage equality into their sense of the “traditional values” that are now under attack; strongly oppose immigration “reform”; and strongly support Trump. 

            “Right Wing” Republicans amount to just over a quarter (26 percent) of Republicans, but has a level of “engagement” that magnifies its numbers within the party; predominantly self-identify as “very conservative”; are older and working class; and fervently support Trump.[3] 

            “Traditional Conservatives” figure as just over a quarter (26 percent) of Republicans; support tax cuts, oppose abortion, support immigration reform, and support aid to gallant little Finland—um, Ukraine.  Just a hair over 50 percent of this group’s primary voters support Trump, even though only 39 percent of this group’s general election voters have a strongly positive view of Trump-the-man. 

            “Libertarian Conservatives” amount to one-seventh (14 percent) of Republicans; value individual liberty over any other good; dislike big government; and are wary of both major parties.  They’re not pro-Trump, but not pro-any other major politician either. 

            The “Moderate Establishment” amounts to one-seventh (14 percent) of Republicans; is socially moderate; and thinks Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush had the right ideas on immigration, trade, and foreign policy.[4]  While Cohn characterizing this faction as often “Never Trump,” the polling data says even this group would vote for Trump over Biden by 46 percent to 27 percent.[5]  A quarter of 14 percent is 3 percent, of Republican voters willing to vote for Biden. 

            Libertarian Conservatives and Moderate Establishment Republicans (28 percent) are soft to hostile on Trump.  They have nothing else in common and most will go along with Trump. 

            Blue-Collar Populists and Right Wing Republicans (38 percent) strongly support Trump, even though they disagree on other issues. 

            Newcomers and Traditional Conservatives (34 percent) will reliably vote against the Democratic candidate.  If winning means voting for Trump, they’ll do it. 

            Newcomers and Blue-Collar Populists (20 percent) are refugees from the Democratic Party’s evolution over the last 50 years.  Probably no Republicans have become Democrats. 

            Who will Trump pick as his Vice Presidential candidate?  Ted Cruz or Tim Scott? 

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[1] Nate Cohn, “Where Trump Stands With These Six Kinds of Republican Voters,” NYT, 22 August 2023. 

[2] Compared to 72 percent of Blacks.  Census Bureau Releases New Educational Attainment Data 

[3] They get their news from Fox and they think all of the recent indictments are hog-wash. 

[4] That is, “Freedom, freedom, and freedom—and let’s keep it that way.” 

[5] Why?  Because they hate the Democratic vision even more than they hate Trump.  Thanks Joe.