“War is pure Hell. You cannot refine it.”—William Tecumseh Sherman. Peace in the Russo-Ukraine war is desirable. Under the right terms.
Under what terms is “peace” with Russia desirable for Ukraine? Should Ukraine give up the territory that Russia already holds in exchange for peace?[1] Should they try to keep fighting with whatever aid the European Union can provide, even if the United States does a bunk? Should they try to extract commitments for the West in exchange for ceding territory to Russia and halting the fighting? Such commitments might involve reconstruction aid, modern arms for a post-war Ukrainian military, and membership in the European Union and NATO. What if Russia’s terms include demands for Ukraine’s “neutralization” and disarmament so as not to “threaten” Russia in the future?
Under what terms is peace desirable for Russia? It would take extreme pressure to make Russia give up its territorial gains. Vladimir Putin’s long-term goal appears to be the reassembly of the Soviet Union. Any peace that leaves Ukraine functionally independent marks a defeat. In terms of manpower, Russia has a big edge. At the moment, it profits from an alliance of convenience with China, North Korea, and Iran. Putin may calculate that he can keep the pressure on Ukraine until the front lines cave in. If that happens, Russia could be in a position to take much more than anyone else is contemplating at this moment.
Under what conditions is peace desirable for the United States? This question involves asking other questions. First, where does Ukraine figure in America’s global strategy? The United States faces multiple dangers simultaneously. The Far East is the most important of these challenges. Then there is the Middle East. The key concerns here are the oil, Iran’s forward policy, and Israel. Then there’s Europe. Putin’s ambitions pose an eventual danger to the former “satellite states” and to the Baltic countries. How soon would it become an actual danger? Russia’s attack on Ukraine has prompted a revival and expansion of NATO. Putin’s “allies” all have a strong interest in keeping the eyes of the world focused on Ukraine (and Gaza).[2] At the same time, a consciousness of danger is poking the Europeans to look to their own defenses. This will take time to develop.
Second, to what extent can the United States make good its global commitments? It operates from a weakened position compared to the past. The United States military’s command structure has ossified, the defense industrial base has eroded for decades, and the human manpower base is in poor shape.[3] It is by no means guaranteed that the United States can fight and win multiple simultaneous wars. Rearmament is going to take time and cost money even IF the political will exists to rearm.
What’s best for Ukraine? Only they can decide.
What’s best for the United States? Only they can decide.
What’s best for Russia? Only Putin can decide.
Where, if at all, do those decisions overlap?
[1] See: 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine – Russo-Ukrainian War – Wikipedia
[2] Someone once observed that Bismarck was the kind of guy who would set fire to your barn so that he could sleep through the night.
[3] The country has a high rate of obesity, with attendant illnesses. Wegovy in boot camp?
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