Adjusting the Overton Window.

            Joe Overton,–“he of the Overton window,” as Howard Cosell would have said—saw “think-tanks” as a prime mover of the range of acceptable ideas.  They advocate for opening, closing, and moving or not moving the “window.” 

Inspired by Overton, political scientist Daniel Drezner examined the development of this “ideas industry” with regard to his own academic specialty, international relations.[1] 

            Drezner argues that times have changed.  Once upon a time, the general public received enlightenment and guidance from “public intellectuals.”  Commonly, these were subject-area experts, often academics who wrote fluently.  What they wrote provided a kind of small-ball explanation of the events at the center of attention and controversy at any given moment.[2]  Newspapers and journals of opinion read by the next several tiers of regional and local opinion-leaders received the fruits of this expertise, then communicated it to the larger readership.  Generally, various levels of the public could respond through “Letters to the Editor.” 

            Those days are, to an extent, gone the way of the Blackberry.  The “public intellectuals” have been shouldered into the second rank by what Drezner calls “thought leaders.”  They differ from their predecessors in two ways.  First, commonly they are not generalists with opinions on all sorts of things.  They are One Big Idea people.[3]  They provide a context for thinking about “all the frequent troubles of our days”[4] within some framework.  Examples of such thought leaders would include Francis Fukuyama and Tom Friedman.[5]  Second, they reach their audiences in new venues: TED talks, blogs, Twitter.  Experienced editors don’t make a selection of reader responses to illustrate the diversity of reactions.  You just get Likes and much yelling. 

            Drezner argues that the creation and dissemination of Ideas now reflects several decades of accumulating changes.  The era of globalization and tech booms created immense new fortunes.  Once upon a time, much of that wealth might have flowed to building libraries or art galleries.  Now, privately-funded–and to a degree opaque–“think tanks” adopt the ideological perspective of their patrons.  Finally, there’s been a general decline of Authority in favor of individual Liberty.[6]  Arguably, audiences on left and right seek voices who tell them what they want to hear, regardless of competence or wisdom.  Arguably, there are far too many people who tailor their commentary to what people want to hear.[7] 

            Thee are symptoms, more than causes, of America’s bitter partisan quarrels. 


[1] Daniel Drezner, The Ideas Industry: How Pessimists, Partisans, and Plutocrats are Transforming the Marketplace of Ideas (2017). 

[2] It’s not completely fair to offer Walter Lippman as the “beau-ideal” of the public intellectual as described above.   On Lippmann, see Ronald Steel, Walter Lippmann and the American Century (1980).

[3] This is not so different from what historians do when they write books on the “Age of…” this, that, or the other period.  It’s just that Thought Leaders are writing mid-stream without any knowledge of how things will play out. 

[4] Stole that from the title of Rachel Donner’s biography of Mildred Harnack. 

[5] See, for example, Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (1992); Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (1999); The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century (2005). 

[6] I’m not sure that Drezner understands how pervasive the change has been.  He is preoccupied with subject-area expertise.  Much of this disdain springs from revelations of incompetence and corruption on the part of Authorities. 

[7] For an example from one side, but readers can find the same stuff on the Right: Robert Reich – The goal is to deflect and distract – to use… | Facebook

The Overton Window.

            Joe Overton (1960-2003) died young, but left a durable legacy in American practical political thought.  His Dad worked for Dow Chemical, so the family ended up in Midland, Michigan.  Joe got a B.S. in Electrical Engineering (Michigan Technological University).  Like his Dad, he went to work for Dow Chemical, as an engineer and project manager.  Later on, he earned a J.D. from Western Michigan University.[1] 

            Overton was a Libertarian.  He went to work for the recently founded think-tank The Mackinac Center for Public Policy.  The Center describes itself as “socially tolerant, economically sophisticated, desiring little government intervention in either their personal or economic affairs.”  It advocates for lower taxes, less government regulation, school choice (i.e. charter schools), and right to work laws.  On the other hand, it will not involve itself in socially conservative causes like abortion (ending legal abortion), marriage (i.e. marriage equality), or book-banning. 

            Being economically “free market” and socially liberal, this particular mix of policies fell neither within the Democratic or Republican ideological camps.  In short, it couldn’t get a hearing.[2]  As a part of his work, Overton worked up a brochure that explained how think-tanks could alter public attitudes toward public policies.  He argued that policies were characterized in public discussion roughly on a range from “Unthinkable” to “Acceptable” to “Popular.”  Only policies described as “Acceptable” got any discussion; only policies that could be discussed could become “Popular.”  Anything that achieved sufficient “Popular” support could become “Policy.”  This narrowed range of possibility became known as the “Overton window.”[3] 

The resolution of the debt ceiling stand-off leaves the United States on course for a financial catastrophe at some point in the future.[4]  With the deficit at 5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) the United States has the highest ratio of the seven largest advanced economies.[5]  Total debt amounts to 97 percent of GDP; in a decade it will increase to about 115 percent.  The rise in interest rates that is being used to combat inflation is expanding the weight of government debt on public finances.  Those rates have increased the cost of government borrowing from a long period of near zero to five percent; the higher rates may last for a while. 

            How did we get into this mess?  Fundamentally, the country itself is both united on some things and divided on others.  It is united on the untouchability of the big drivers of government spending: Defense, Social Security, and Medicare/Medicaid.  It is divided over reducing spending, or increasing taxation, or both as a solution to the problem.  Clearly, this combination of policies cannot be sustained over the long term. 

In short, solving our problems will require shifting or widening the “Overton window.”  Neither party seems interested in doing that.  It may take “the prospect of being hanged.”


[1] Reportedly “the worst law school in America.”  Michael Cohen (yes that Michael Cohen) went there.  See: Western Michigan University Cooley Law School – Wikipedia 

[2] “Why am I short of attention?/Got a short little span of attention”—Paul Simon, “You Can Call Me Al” (1986).

[3] For two takes, see: How the Politically Unthinkable Can Become Mainstream – The New York Times (nytimes.com) and An Introduction to the Overton Window of Political Possibility – 101 Recommendations to Revitalize Michigan – Mackinac Center 

[4] Greg Ip, “A Debt Deal That Doesn’t Deal With Debt,” WSJ, 1 June 2023. 

[5] Britain is at 3.5 percent, Japan at about 2.5 percent; and Germany has a surplus of about 0.5 percent.