Over the years, Iran has armed and helped organize “proxy” forces on the borders of Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthies in Yemen all are clients of Iran. The Iranian term for these groups is the “Axis of Resistance.” They are sometimes described in the Western media as Iran’s forward line of defense against Israel. In truth they are the “Axis of Aggression” and Iran’s forward line of attack against Israel.
On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.[1] Israel began a long, grinding conquest of Gaza. Soon after Hamas launched its attack, Hezbollah (“Party of God”) in Lebanon (and eventually the Houthies in Yemen) began supporting Hamas by their own missile attacks on northern Israel and shipping in the Red Sea. Sixty thousand people fled northern Israel in search of a place of greater safety. Israel did little in response to these attacks as it concentrated its effort on Gaza.
The Israeli are, apparently, masters of Sequence: first one thing, then the next thing. Suddenly, Israeli pummeled Hezbollah. (This may be a sign that the government regards matters as being well in hand in Gaza.) First, pagers previously distributed by Hezbollah to many of its members exploded. These had been chosen as a more secure communication device than cell phones, calls on which might easily be intercepted by Israel. The next day, walkie-talkies distributed as a back-up system to the pagers exploded. Israel’s intelligence service had compromised Hezbollah’s communications logistics.
Then Israel began bombing in a precise (but bloody) fashion. On the one hand, they hit many in the upper ranks of Hezbollah’s leadership. Apparently, they knew how to locate them. Among the dead were Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time leader of Hezbollah; Nabil Kaouk, a deputy of Nasrallah; and Ibrahim Akil, head of Hezbollah’s equivalent of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. These all come on top of earlier assassinations.[2]
On the other hand, Israeli jets pounded storage sites of Hezbollah’s missiles and rockets. American and Israeli sources claim that perhaps half of Hezbollah’s huge stockpile has been destroyed.[3] Then Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invaded southern Lebanon. The government of Israel claims that this is a “limited” operation meant to clear southern Lebanon of Hezbollah troops and weapons. Only time will tell if this operation really is “limited” or if it portends something larger.
In response to the battering of Hezbollah, it’s patron-state Iran launched a large strike of 181 missiles at targets in Israel. Backed up by fire from U.S. Navy destroyers, Israel’s air defense system shot down most of the incoming missiles.
Is Hezbollah irreparably damaged or destroyed? Much of the discussion seems to report a consensus view that Hezbollah SHOULD be destroyed or, at least, forced out of its powerful position in Lebanon’s politics. It doesn’t really address the question of whether Hezbollah CAN be destroyed. Certainly, the huge damage done to its upper leadership will weaken and disorganize Hezbollah for some time. That weakness and disorganization will open more gaps for Israel to attack. Furthermore, in light of the history of other revolutionary movements, there is likely to be a great “rat hunt” inside Hezbollah for the Israeli agent or agents. In light of the history of other “rat hunts,” the person in charge of the hunt will almost certainly be an Israeli agent.[4] In light of the history of other organizations, such hunts tend to wreak havoc with the organization engaged in the “rat hunt.”[5] Deep distrust may lead to fragmentation, at least for a time.
However, Hezbollah is supposed to have around 100,000 fighting men that it can call up. That is a substantial base from which to recruit a new leadership hierarchy. Not to draw too close a parallel, but consider the American “War on Drugs.” For half a century now, we’ve devoted great resources to battling the “drug cartels.”[6] Huge loads of illegal drugs and the cash from their sale have been captured; many cartel members have been captured; many others have died in the fratricidal battles of the drug trade. In 2022, the United States suffered 73,838 deaths attributed to fentanyl.[7] People in the drug trade are like “dragon’s teeth.” Is it the same for Hezbollah?
[1] “Israel vows retaliation after Iranian attack,” The Week, 11 October 2024, p. 4.
[2] For lists of Hezbollah leaders believed to have been killed as of 30 September 2024, see: The Hezbollah leaders killed by Israel – who they were and the key players that remain | CNN and List of Hezbollah’s high-ranking figures killed by Israel | Al Bawaba. Among the others killed was Fateh al-Sharif, who led Hamas fighters in Lebanon and acted as co-ordinator of Hamas with Hezbollah. When not busy with those activities he worked as a school principal for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and as head of the teachers’ union. The Week, 11 October 2024, p. 9. During the Second World War, the British and the Czechs assassinated Reinhard Heydrich, while the Americans ambushed the plane they knew to be carrying Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, who had planned the Pearl Harbor attack.
[3] Either that’s a wild guess and they’re just blowing smoke or they’re right on the money because they knew the location and exact contents of the dumps. Given the evidence from Israel’s other attacks, it seems that Hezbollah has been riddled by Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad. See: The GWOT if Israel was in charge. | waroftheworldblog
[4] See: Peter Hart, The IRA and Its Enemies: Violence and Community in Cork, 1916-1923 (1988).
[5] David Wise, Molehunt: The Secret Search for Traitors That Shattered the C.I.A. (1992).
[6] Mark Bowden, Killing Pablo: The Hunt for the World’s Greatest Outlaw (2001).
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