Tag Archives: American decline

Redeemable.

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            Experts are gravely concerned about the state of the Defense Department and of America’s military forces.[1]  In a nutshell, it is doubted that the United States could win a conventional war with a great power opponent, by which is meant China.  We need an honest and probing discussion of these issues.[2]  Instead, Peter Hegseth’s nomination for Secretary of Defense unleashed a cloudburst of moral indignation about his philandering,[3] possible sexual assault, drinking, opposition to women serving in combat arms, and proven inability to organize even a two-car parade.[4]  Hegseth himself talked about restoring a warrior culture and “lethality” to American forces, in part by dismantling D.I.E. initiatives.[5]  Much less senatorial and press attention was devoted to his views on issues of budgeting, recruitment,[6] threat assessments, and strategy.  Then there was the charge that Hegseth “has also defended soldiers convicted of war crimes and urged their pardon, which puts our military’s honor at risk.”[7]  Indeed, he did.[8]  Again, the politics of personalities took pride of place.  (Lots of ‘literation let loose.)  Initially, many Republican senators found the allegations “very disturbing.”  Many people thought that he would go the way of the failed nominee for Attorney, Matt Gaetz.[9]  In response, Hegseth confessed that “I have failed in things in my life, and thankfully I’m redeemed by my Lord and Savior Jesus.”  However, President Trump dug in behind Hegseth.  After an intense lobbying effort,[10] Hegseth won confirmation by the narrowest margin possible.  If he fails as Secretary of Defense,[11] we’re all liable to be redeemed by his Lord and Savior. 

[1] For an alarming report, see: “The System Is Blinking Red” 2. | waroftheworldblog  For well-informed discussions of some specific issues, see: Ep 169: Dmitry Filipoff on Naval Warfare in 2025 | Nebulous; Ep 165: Shyam Sankar on a Defense Reformation | Nebulous; Ep 161: Mackenzie Eaglen on China’s Military Spending and Ours | Nebulous  I am grateful to my son, Evan Hill, for alerting me to Aaron Maclean and his  podcast “School of War.” 

[2] See the testimony to Congress of Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin (ret.).  Bing Videos 

[3] In one sense, this preoccupation is justified, rather than (OK, as well as) purely salacious.  Adultery is barred by the Uniform Code of Military Justice.  Hegseth would be the civilian chief of an organization whose military personnel are required to live under a moral code he has had great difficulty acknowledging.  See: UCMJ Adultery: Punishment For Cheating In The Military

[4] “Senators grill Hegseth, other Trump nominees,” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 5. 

[5] See the column by Bret Stephens, “D.E.I. Will Not Be Missed,” NYT, 29 January 2025. 

[6] Male recruitment has fallen by about 22 percent since 2015.  Female recruitment has not surged enough to make up the difference.  In any case, too many volunteers cannot meet the threshold qualifications for physical fitness and health (physical fitness).  They are rejected before they can flunk out of Basic Training.  “Noted,” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 16 

[7] Editorial in WSJ, quoted in “Senators grill Hegseth, other Trump nominees,” The Week, 24 January 2025, p. 5.

[8] At the same time, it is uncomfortable at the least to observe the posturing on this matter by journalists and politicians.  One chief subject of Hegseth’s lobbying was Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher.  Gallagher was charged with—among other crimes—the murder of a wounded ISIS prisoner in Iraq.  Gallagher was on his eighth deployment.  The Defense Department doesn’t send SEALs (or Army Rangers) to guard convoys or the perimeter of airfields.  They send them into high-stress situations.  They do it repeatedly.  Someone is bound to crack.  Then they get court-martialed.  What about the civilian and military command structure that sent them?  In any event, see Eddie Gallagher (Navy SEAL) – Wikipedia 

[9] “Trump taps ‘Deep State’ critic Patel to lead FBI,” The Week, 13 December 2024, p. 4. 

[10] Some of which targeted Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), herself an Army National Guard veteran who served in Kuwait during the Iraq War.  Reportedly, some the pressure got ugly and went beyond normal jawboning or horse-trading.  “GOP senators fall in line behind Trump’s pick,” The Week, 20 December 2024, p. 5. 

[11] What am I saying, “If”?  He isn’t Bob Gates. 

The Middle Kingdom.

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China has emerged from backwardness and isolation with astonishing suddenness.  The death of Mao Zedong, followed by the overthrow of his immediate successors, brought to power Deng Xiaoping.  While opening China to foreign trade, investment, and learning, Deng counseled modesty.  “Hide your brightness, bide your time.”  Now that time has come.  China has begun to exert its power in ways unprecedented in modern times.

The Romans built roads to hold their empire together, then they built a lot of other things to increase its value.  Alarm has begun to spread at a new “One Belt, One Road” enterprise launched by ChiComCo.[1]  The “Belt” is an overland transportation system (roads, railroads, bridges and tunnels) and its attendant support systems (power generation and transmission, a regulated version of the Internet).  The “Road”[2] is the complementary sea-route to Europe, along with all the logistical support (like ports).[3]

Chinese companies can count on the lion’s share of construction contracts.  For example, Chinese construction companies have built “95 deep-water ports, 10 airports, 152 bridges, and 2,080 railroad” segments in countries along the routes of the Belt and Road.  As it is completed, the Belt and Road facilitates Chinese trade.

Recognizing the rising economic power of China, the United States sought to counter this with the “Trans-Pacific Partnership” (TPP) trade treaty.[4]  However, American politics suddenly shifted against an open world economy.  Not only Donald Trump, but Bernie Sanders and then Hillary Clinton declared the TPP a bad deal for Americans.  While the leaders of many countries likely to be touched by China’s great plan attended a “Belt and Road” conference in May 2017, the United States sent only a delegate.  Some of the negative commentary about China’s investments abroad is couched in humanitarian, rather than economic or strategic, terms.  China founded its pursuit of prosperity on seizing land for economic development projects and then shoving huge numbers of people off the land.[5]  (One counter to this is that countries like Pakistan or Cambodia act in similar ways—without greatly improving the economic lives of their citizens.)  The Chinese investment may have a long-term effect of putting the critical infrastructure of developing countries under Chinese control.  Hence, many people see the United States as ceding global leadership to China.[6]

It’s difficult to know what to make of this charge.  On the one hand, George W. Bush in his second term and Barack Obama in both his terms sought to limit American engagement abroad in the interest of strengthening a redoubled country at home.  The Trump Administration’s “America First” rhetoric and policies falls in line with these earlier efforts.  Thus the national impulse seems to be running toward dealing with domestic problems.  It is hard to deny that America has pressing domestic problems that will not be easily resolved.

On the other hand, China’s strengths are many and real.  It would be foolish to think that these will not reshape the global order.  So, where is the sweet spot?

[1] “China’s plan to run the world,” The Week, 16 June 2017, p. 11.

[2] Obviously, the planners hadn’t been reading Cormac McCarthy.  See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road

[3] For the historical antecedents, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_He

[4] The treaty was highly favorable to Americans.  It created a free trade zone encompassing 40 percent of the world’s trade, while creating safeguards for American interests through labor and environmental standards.

[5] Along the way, China moved  86 percent of its people out of extreme poverty.  Many of them moved into lives of middle-class abundance—and stress.

[6] American announcement that the country would withdraw from the Paris Climate Control agreement is offered as a further example of American abdication.