Biden and Trump on Abortion.

            President Biden is a Catholic, and he long favored some restrictions on abortion when he was a senator (1973-2009).[1]  He now says that “Roe v. Wade got it right” and in the words of the New York Times “he seeks to put support for abortion at the heart of his re-election campaign.” 

            Biden has sought to by-pass the Supreme Court’s decision to return the question of abortion to the states.  Since “nearly two thirds” of abortions are by means of medication and that medication could be obtained in any state through the mail, Biden’s Justice Department has led the way by defending access to the medications (chiefly mifepristone).  On the one hand, the administration persuaded the Supreme Court to unanimously reject a lawsuit trying to limit access to the drug. On the other hand, the Department has issued an opinion that sending abortifacients through the mail does not violate the Comstock Act of 1873’s ban on sending abortifacients through the mail.[2]  He has also endorsed the Food and Drug Administration (F.D.A.) in its effort to expand the list of approved providers to retail pharmacies.  His Department of Health and Human Services has “warned”[3] pharmacies that they might be violating civil rights laws if they refuse to dispense drugs that have multiple purposes. 

            In a second term, Biden wants to pass a law that would affirm the right to abortion throughout the United States.  He acknowledges that, to achieve this goal, the Democrats will need majorities in both the House and the Senate, and the end of the filibuster in the Senate.[4] 

            Former President Trump called himself “very pro-choice” a quarter-century ago.  When he sought the Republican nomination in 2026, he became an opponent of abortion.  He appointed three new Justices to the Supreme Court, which then overturned “Roe v. Wade.”  The Court returned the matter to the states to decide.  Former President Trump supports that decision.[5]  Trump also acted against public funding for abortions through the so-called Title X grants. 

However, Trump has been opaque, at the least, about other measures being suggested by opponents of any abortions for anyone anywhere.  In response to the—apparently previously unrecognized–fact that most abortions are performed by means of medications and those medications can be obtained through the mail, abortion opponents hastily turned to the Comstock Act.  Here the Trump campaign has not yet formulated a policy. 

Both candidates have moved far from their older positions, although Trump has moved farthest.  In the words of the New York Times, Trump has “largely treated abortion policy as a political transaction.”  It appears that the remark holds true for both men.  Now voters will exercise their right to choose which man’s political career to terminate for the health of the country. 


[1] For example, in 2006 he told an interviewer that “I do not view abortion as a choice and a right. I think it’s always a tragedy, and I think that it should be rare and safe, and I think we should be focusing on how to limit the number of abortions.” And further that “I won’t support public funding and I won’t support partial birth abortion.” Joe Biden described being an ‘odd man out’ with Democrats on abortion in 2006 interview | CNN Politics  In 2019 he abandoned his opposition to Medicaid funding abortions. 

[2] On the Act, see Comstock Act of 1873 – Wikipedia.  On its namesake, see Anthony Comstock – Wikipedia.  For the New York Society for the Suppression of Vice, see New York Society for the Suppression of Vice – Wikipedia

[3] i.e. threatened.

[4] A Senate rule requires at least sixty votes to pass legislation.  The filibuster could be removed by a simple majority.  The Democrats currently have such a majority with 50 Senators and Vice President Harris as a tie-breaker.  The Democrats had a narrow majority in the House of Representatives from 2020 to 2022.  So, in theory and as in many earlier situations, they could have passed such a law without waiting for the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade.  The failure of the Democrats to seize this opportunity after President Trump had appointed three conservative Supreme Court Justices puzzles me.  One possible explanation is that the filibuster rule enables the minority party to block most of the legislation of the majority party at a time when elections are close to evenly balanced.  If you eliminate the filibuster so you can drive over your opponents, the same thing could happen to you after the next election.  For example, if the Republicans win control of the Congres and the White House, they could ram through a national abortion ban.  So, perhaps Biden’s proposed law will not be pressed if he wins a second term. 

[5] This seems consistent with his April 2024 statement that he would not sign a national abortion ban if passed by a future Congress.                    

Defeating Trump for the Republican Nomination.

            Frank Luntz is an important, sometimes controversial Republican pollster and focus group leader.[1]  Recently, he shared his thoughts on a post-Trump Republican presidential candidate.[2]    

Luntz offers a bald assessment of elements of the American political scene.  On the one hand, “many Trump supporters” are people who were “knocked down, got back up and are now helping others to do the same.”  On the other hand, there is the country’s political elite: “politicians, political hacks, lobbyists, and out-of-touch elites who have ignored, forgotten and betrayed the people they represent.” Trump was originally “elected to destroy” this existing political order.  Now, in the eyes of this large minority of the core Trump constituency, he has become part of the problem. 

            According to Luntz, about a third of Trump voters “prioritize the character of the country and the people who run it.”  Doubtless any Democrat will scoff at this statement.  However, these voters are estranged from Trump himself, but not from his policies. 

            How can Republican rivals win over these voters?  (No Democrat ever will, although a bunch of the Trump base voters are former Democrats.) 

First, the successful contestant will be someone “who champions Mr. Trump’s agenda but with decency, civility, and a commitment to personal responsibility and accountability.”  People reject President Trump’s boorish, bullying behavior even as they continue to support policies like actually confronting China.  During and after his presidency, Trump provided many examples of self-indulgence, irresponsibility, and hypocrisy.  Reminding voters of these faults, while celebrating the many real achievements of his administration[3] can win over voters. 

Second, a candidate should have some kind of track record of actually putting conservative policies into practice.  That argues for a governor, rather than a senator.  Luntz isn’t playing favorites here.  Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, and Ron DeSantis all have this credential. 

Third, be aware that many Trump supporters are older people worried about the future of their children and grandchildren.  Candidates need to talk clearly about solving current problems with grave future implications.  Here, the national debt gets a lot more traction than does climate change. 

Fourth, a candidate will have to win over Republican-leaning independents, not drive them into the Democratic camp. 

Fifth, if candidates are seeking campaign endorsements, those endorsements should come from “the average farmer, small business owner and veteran.”  They most definitely should not come from the “famous and powerful.”  None of the Trump base respects these people.  (The same is probably true of many Democrats.) Nor should they, sad to say. 


[1] On Luntz, see: Frank Luntz – Wikipedia  For televised appearance where you can get a sense of his reasoning, see: Frank I. Luntz | C-SPAN.org 

[2] Frank Luntz, “How to Make Trump Go Away,” NYT, 10 April 2023. 

[3] Slamming tariffs on China, harassing its major corporations, recognizing that the long campaign to change North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons had failed, insisting upon the importance of mass illegal immigration, treating the NATO allies as the free-riders that they have long been, halting the flood of government by Executive orders, Executive agreements, and bureaucratic rule-writing, and launching “Operation Warp Speed” to rapidly produce Covid vaccines for those who wanted them.  You could watch “Dopesick” for insight into why some did not.