A Geographer Reads the Newspapers.

Posted on April 3, 2022 by jsh54

One thing connects to another thing in surprising ways.[1] East African countries don’t raise enough food to feed their people.[2] East African countries make up the deficit by imports.

Well, somebody makes up the deficit. Mostly, this work is done and paid for by humanitarian Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) like the World Food Program of the United Nations and Mercy Corps and Oxfam International. The NGOs, in turn, depend upon charitable contributions from individuals, corporations, and governments in the West.

Before and after Communism, southern Russia (including the Ukraine until the break-up of the Soviet Union) were important farm crop exporters. Now, Southern Russia and independent Ukraine continue to serve as key sources of wheat, soybeans, and barley. Because of lower transportation costs, these regions have developed large markets in East Africa. Food imports to East Africa can come from the Americas or from the Black Sea ports like Odessa. The New Orleans, USA—Mombasa, Kenya route is 10,764 nautical miles and takes 45 days. The Odessa, Ukraine—Mombasa, Kenya route is 4,975 nautical miles and takes 20 days. So the shipping cost that has to be added to the price of the grain is about double for Midwestern American wheat for example. As a result, fourteen East African countries import half of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Eritrea imports all of its wheat.

East Africa is beset by natural and man-made disasters. There is a civil war in Ethiopia, Islamist terrorism in Somalia, and long-running ethnic conflicts in Sudan. In recent years, a locust infestation has battered Kenya,[3] Covid has hammered the under-vaccinated region, and heavy rains have flooded much of South Sudan.[4] Taken together, those problems make farming and stock-raising difficult.

On top of this, a drought has hit East Africa.[5] A product of “La Nina,” the drought has caused the lowest rainfall in forty years all across East Africa.[6] Crops have failed, herds have died.[7] Thirteen million people in East Africa are hungry.

People began moving off the parched land. Mostly this has meant walking across the parched landscape toward some city. In theory, it is up to the government to do something. More importantly, that is where they will find the international aid agencies that actually try to do something.

Then came the war in Ukraine. Exports are disrupted, especially from Ukraine. The Russian Navy has blockaded Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, while its Army is assaulting ports like Mariupol and—perhaps soon—Odessa. Ukraine’s transportation system is diverted to the war effort. Hence, exports are down, risk-premiums apply, and the costs of wheat have risen. For example, the price of cooking oil has risen from $32 for 20 liters to $50; the price of beans from $18 to $28 for 25 kilograms.[8] Wheat imports by Sudan have fallen by 60 percent.

The donors who pay for the operations of the humanitarian NGOs do not have unlimited resources. Nor do they have unlimited attention. The sudden humanitarian crisis in Ukraine may have diverted some charitable giving from East Africa to Eastern Europe.

The current estimated death total in the Ukraine-Russia War is 13,000-15,000. The death toll in the last East African drought in 2011 is contested. Some estimate that 50,000 died, while others put the toll at above a quarter million.[9] Yes, we should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. What if we can’t?

[1] Abdi Latif Dahir, “War in Ukraine Worsens Hunger in East Africa,” New York Times, 2 April 2022.

[2] For an analysis of potential improvements in the agriculture of Sub-Saharan Africa, see: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/winning-in-africas-agricultural-market#:~:text=Agriculture%20in%20Africa%20has%20a,full%20agricultural%20potential%20remains%20untapped. You can take back-bearings to figure out why this potential has not been achieved already.

[3] See: https://www.npr.org/2021/01/19/958543535/locust-swarms-threaten-parts-of-east-africa

[4] See: https://floodlist.com/africa/south-sudan-floods-update-december-2021

[5] See: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/historic-drought-looms-for-20-million-living-in-horn-of-africa

[6] On “la Nina,” see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a

[7] In Kenya, 1.5 million livestock have perished.

[8] Roughly, 4 liters to the US gallon; and 2 pounds to 1 kilogram.

[9] Compare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Total_casualties

with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_East_Africa_drought

The Aftermath of the Ukraine War.

Posted on March 27, 2022 by jsh54

To what extent do Ukrainian and Western (NATO/EU) interests overlap?

As I understand it, NATO allowed Ukraine to take the initial steps toward membership in the George W. Bush Administration. However, neither France nor Germany was eager to have Ukraine admitted. Probably didn’t want to make a permanent enemy out of Russia and—maybe—resented American bullying. Have they changed their minds on NATO membership?

Moreover, Ukraine had an on-going territorial dispute with Russia before the current unpleasantness: Crimea and the Eastern Donbas. Will Russia have to surrender these as part off the peace settlement? Or will Ukraine have to surrender them as the price of something with which the Russians can live? Back at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the electoral maps show that Crimea was the area least enthusiastic about leaving Russia for Ukraine and the two eastern oblasts weren’t all that far behind.

The EU was OK with an Association Agreement with Ukraine in 2014, but not full membership. They had various requirements. Have those requirements been fulfilled in the years since? Then, the place seems to me to be a kleptocracy. It’s why Ukrainian voters put a stand-up comedian into the presidency.

Is the West going to get carried away by emotion and shoulder what may be a heavy burden because we admire the Ukrainian people’s resistance to Russian aggression? Can the West use post-war negotiations to help Zelensky/force Ukraine to clean up its political system?

There’s been a lot of damage done. Who pays to fix up things? Who pays compensation for lives lost or ruined? Russia? Hard to do if it is permanently closed out of world energy markets. Ukraine itself? The West?

The Lesser of Two Evils.

Posted on March 13, 2022 by jsh54

In 2005, Vladimir Putin told Russians that the fall of the Soviet Union was the “greatest geo-political catastrophe of the century.”[1] “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.” The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) had advanced eastward relentlessly, first admitting the former “captive nations”[2] of the Warsaw Pact, then admitting the three Baltic states which had long been under Russian rule. The United States had used its power to overthrow the governments of Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011) and to call for the overthrow of the government of Syria (2011). Then the Americans left those places in blazing ruins. For more than twenty years he labored to undo that “catastrophe.” His accomplishments are not petty.

He rose from a low-level KGB officer to be the dictator of Russia, regardless of varying formal titles.[3] He brought to heel the oligarchs who had “spontaneously privatized” much of Soviet-era industry to their own advantage. He checked the further disintegration of the Russian Federation by a savage war in Chechnya.[4]

Since he came to power, Putin has been advancing the pre-existing Eurasian Economic Union. This EEU is intended to rival the European Community (EC) and to pull together the economies of Russia and other former Soviet states.[5] Anyone who has read the history of Nineteenth Century German unification or the history of the development of the EC knows that “butter” comes before “gun” in the dictionary. In this effort, Ukraine figured as a rich prize.[6]

He turned to trying to regain a measure of control over the countries that had left the Soviet Union in the wake of its collapse. In 2008 he sent Russian troops into the former Soviet republic of Georgia.

Since the 2011 “Arab Spring” he has opposed the Americans with direct military aid in the Syrian and Libyan civil wars. In both cases, Russia’s clients are winning.

In 2014, after his attempt to lure Ukraine into the EEU foundered, he sent Russian troops into Crimea and the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

He has achieved a measure of success in cozening Turkey, Hungary, and Italy. Each has its own discontents with the European Union or NATO or the United States. Then there’s China.

The United States and its presidents have been going through a bad patch since the end of the Cold War. Vladimir Putin seems to be a bad man in a hurry. That doesn’t mean he will win.

[1] See: https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna7632057 That fall occurred in the 20th Century, so he’s claiming a lot.

[2] On the Cold War-era term, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captive_Nations#:~:text=%22Captive%20Nations%22%20is%20a%20term,Communist%20administration%2C%20primarily%20Soviet%20rule. On the more broadly applicable “puppet state,” see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puppet_state

[3] It speaks volumes to the mentality of the Obama Administration foreign policy officials (and of the president himself) that they were unable to distinguish between form and substance. Dmitri Medvedev went where Putin sent him and did what Putin told him.

[4] Wikipedia is as accessible as anything else on this fight. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War. For an argument that Putin himself staged the bombing of apartment buildings to justify the second war, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings

[5] See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

[6] See: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/why-does-ukraine-matter/

History Lessons.

Posted on March 12, 2022 by jsh54

In 1917, the Bolsheviks seized power in major Russian cities in a coup not supported by the majority of the Russian people. They fought and won a bloody civil war. Famine savaged the people. The new government repudiated the debts to foreign investors in Tsarist government bonds and seized foreign property. The new regime sought to export revolution all around the globe. As a result, Communist Russia spent many years as a pariah country among the nations. The new Soviet Union had little trade, no foreign investment, and constant harassment of its foreign operations. Then came the collectivization of agriculture, more famines, and the purges. Then Nazi Germany attacked. A commonly-accepted estimate is that the war killed 20 million Russians. Nevertheless, by the end of the war, the red flag flew over the Reichstag.[1]

It’s certainly possible that the Russian people have gone soft in the decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Perhaps failed hopes for a swift victory, hundreds of combat deaths, tough—but not complete—economic sanctions, near-universal moral condemnation, and scathing satire on late-night television will bring Russia to its knees. Or perhaps the badly out-gunned Ukrainians will suffer grave defeats, many additional millions of refugees will flood across the border into the European Union, and Russia will confiscate Western businesses and turn off the gas to Europe as further bargaining chips.

The peace settlement following the First World War left many people disappointed or unhappy.[2] Germany suffered territorial losses, had to agree to pay heavy reparations, and had its sovereignty limited by disarmament. At Versailles, “Meester Veelson” and other progressives denied Italy the territorial gains promised to it in exchange for entering the war in 1915. Japan found its wartime efforts at empire-building in China checked. Russia lost vast chunks of territory through the Western-sponsored triumph of national self-determination. While German grievances won substantial redress during the Twenties, Italy and Japan remained dissatisfied.

The Great Depression transformed international relations, just as it did in domestic matters. The conventional economics of the time commanded budget cuts and military spending suffered. Democracies turned toward domestic reforms, or became paralyzed, or just collapsed wherever it had failed to sink strong roots. In the decidedly un-capitalist Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin had seized to power in the late Twenties. The Depression brought Adolf Hitler to power in Germany, while the government of Japan increasingly fell under the control of imperialist soldiers. Italy’s Benito Mussolini ranked as the senior dictator in the group, although he had little yet to show for his tenure in terms of expansion.

The democracies were hard put to deal simultaneously with three open and one covert aggressors. In the Thirties, the United States turned from partial engagement in international affairs to a deepening isolationism. France’s interests and resources were almost entirely European. Britain had the means to fight one war, but faced enemies in the Far East, the Mediterranean, and Central Europe. Things had to get much worse to change policies.

Today, Russia, radical Islamists in the Middle East equipped—or almost—with nuclear weapons (Iran, Pakistan), and China all can be counted as dissatisfied powers. Where to start?

[1] Nicholas Riasanovsky, A History of Russia (1977) is cold and comprehensive.

[2] Raymond Sontag, A Broken World, 1919-1939 (1971) remains a valuable guide.

Miscellany on Ukraine.

Posted on March 9, 2022 by jsh54

Russia has 900,000 military personnel; Ukraine has about 200,000. Russia has 3,400 tanks; Ukraine has 1,000. Russia has 1,400 military aircraft; Ukraine has 130.[1] Even faced with a Ukrainian “nation in arms,” Russia is likely to win this fight. It is likely to be much more distressing to Western television audiences than it has been so far.[2]

The invading Russians obstruct the evacuation of civilians from besieged towns and cities for the same reason that the Ukrainians want the civilians evacuated. Evacuation reduces the strain on the Ukrainian defenders. Evacuation of non-combatants facilitates turning the town into a pure urban battlefield where conditions favor the defense. If Ukrainian forces want to save the civilians, they could surrender. They don’t want to surrender. They want to fight.

Ukraine has an on-going territorial dispute with Russia. In 2014, the Russians seized Crimea and fostered rebellions in two linguistically heavily Russian administrative districts in eastern Ukraine. Admitting Ukraine to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) before these territorial disputes are resolved will just entangle NATO in those disputes. So, the peace settlement after this war will probably involve Ukraine surrendering those territories to Russia. It may also involve the neutralization of Ukraine on the Austrian or Finnish models.[3]

The list of political figures who were assassinated is a long one. Rarely are dictators on them.[4] They got to the peak of power by being devious and ruthless. They pay attention to their personal security. Vladimir Lenin died of natural causes. Joseph Stalin died of natural causes. Adolf Hitler killed himself on the eve of capture after the defeat of Germany. Italian partisans captured and executed Benito Mussolini when he fled after the defeat of Germany. The Americans captured Saddam Hussein and turned him over to Iraq’s government. They executed him. Hoping that someone close to Vladimir Putin is going to kill him is foolish.

It is reported that the Crown Prince of Saudia Arabia and the emir of the United Arab Emirates recently declined to take phone calls from President Joe Biden. I conjecture that they think that the United States is neither a reliable friend nor a feared opponent. First, they’re out in the open. What if many other leaders feel something similar but haven’t declared themselves yet? Second, if they are right, what do Americans want to do about it? Painful choices loom.

For much of the early, critical phase of the Cold War, American presidents had a group of deeply-experienced and practical-minded men upon whom they could call for advice on foreign policy. These “Wise Men”[5] helped guide the United States through a series of problems. Does President Biden have an equivalent group of advisors?[6]

This whole thing is a can of worms.

[1] Matthew Luxmoore et al, “NATO Members Resupply Weapons on a Historic Scale,” WSJ, 9 March 2022.

[2] See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995)

[3] See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_State_Treaty

[4] Lesser figures do get assassinated. Czech soldiers killed Reinhard Heydrich. Terrified fellow-Communists killed Lavrenti Beria.

[5] See Walter Isaacson and Evan Thomas, The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made (1986). The six were Robert Lovett, Dean Acheson, Averill Harriman, John J. McCloy, Charles Bohlen, and George Kennan. To this list might be added others like Clark Clifford and Paul Nitze.

[6] JMO and I come in peace, but Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Mike Pompeo, and John Bolton doesn’t strike me as much of a bench.

Shaking the Tree to See What Comes Loose.

Posted on March 5, 2022 by jsh54

For a while now the world has been experiencing a return to Great Power Politics. This isn’t the same as the “rules-based system” sponsored by the United States for many decades.[1] It’s far from the “Olympianism” imagined by many Europeans.[2] It’s more like the hard-headed international relations of the Nineteenth Century.[3]

China and Russia have challenged the established order and the established codes of conduct. Military force is being used in Ukraine and might be used in Taiwan. So far, Russia has been easy to punish, but hard to stop by non-military means. America’s economic campaign to get China to negotiate—tariffs and other measures—hasn’t brought compliance. In the United States and elsewhere, people are starting to think about more traditional means of eliciting better behavior. One of these is military power. Another is alliances.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) out of its post-Communist funk. That is reassuring. However, the crisis also has suggested that the foundation of other alliances have been undermined.

After the Second World War, the global prosperity of the non-Communist world rested upon on several pillars. One of them was cheap and abundant energy. American recognition of the need for energy security led to American security guarantees. The role of energy in global prosperity empowered the oil-producing countries who belong to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). American engagement helped manage the constructive behavior of the Middle East oil-producers by getting them to balance their own profits against global needs. Ever since the “oil shocks” of the 1970s, the United States has been off-setting many of its own costs by selling advanced arms to the oil states. China’s dependence on imported oil restrains adventurism.

Walter Russell Mead[4] has excoriated the Middle Eastern policy of the Obama administration.[5] The velvet-glove-without-iron-fist treatment of Iran, the ridiculous hopes placed in the “Arab Spring,” the mishandling of anti-government movements in both Egypt and Syria, and the desire to end the American involvement in Iraq made clear the administration’s willingness to pay a high price to “pivot to Asia.” Middle Eastern leaders began looking to Russia and China. That shift continued under the Trump Administration.

Now Saudi Arabia opposes increasing pumping more oil in the midst of gas price spikes. It has a production agreement with Russia. Time for a reset says Mead.

[1] See, for example: https://www.salon.com/2021/05/26/tony-blinken-talks-about-a-rules-based-order–does-he-mean-the-us-gets-to-make-the-rules/

[2] According to the late John Keegan, “Olympianism” “seeks to influence and eventually control the behavior of states not by the traditional means of resorting to force as a last resort but by supplanting force by rational procedures, exercised through a supranational bureaucracy and supranational legal systems and institutions.” Keegan regards this as delusional, but widespread. He describes the “Olympian ethic” as “opposition to any form of international action lying outside the now commonly approved limits of legal disapproval and treaty condemnation.” (John Keegan, The Iraq War (2005), pp. 109, 115.

[3] That diplomacy has often been derided by intelligent, well-educated, and well-intentioned fools such as President Woodrow Wilson. Nevertheless, it managed to prevent any general European war between 1815 and 1914, while also facilitating the imposition of Western rule over non-Western places that would not adapt to the modern world.

[4] On Read, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Russell_Mead

[5] Walter Russell Mead, “The Cost of Neglecting the Middle East,” WSJ, 4 March 2022.

Understanding Ukraine for Dummies-Like-Me.

Posted on March 3, 2022 by jsh54

On the theory that no one really has more than a few hours to get some additional background on the present crisis, here are some recommendations.

George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia. Vivid memoir of fighting in an improvised army in a war between an over-matched kinda-sorta democracy and an authoritarian rebellion.

Isaac Babel, Red Cavalry. Collection of short stories (based on his own experiences) about Red Army troops fighting in Ukraine during the Russian Civil War (1918-1921).

Both of the above books are a fast read. Unless, you know, you find yourself lingering over particular passages, or you later feel the need to go back and read the book again even though the present unpleasantness has passed and it’s a sunny day when you should be doing some yard work.

Andrzej Wajda’s movie “Katyn.” In Polish, but with English sub-titles. What happened in Poland in 1940 happened all over the USSR (especially in Ukraine) for a longer period. It’s on Youtube for the moment. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taVdIFONkCw

NB: The guys in the blue hats are NKVD. This was the successor to the OGPU, which was the successor to the Cheka. It was the predecessor to the KGB, which was the predecessor to the current FSB. Doesn’t matter. A leopard can’t change his spots. Vladimir Putin started out as a KGB officer.

Anne Appelbaum, “How Putin and His Cronies Stole Russia,” https://www.anneapplebaum.com/…/how-he-and-his-cronies…/

Ukraine Is a Fork in the Road.

Posted on February 26, 2022 by jsh54

We can disagree about the details—even important ones—of economic policy. Still, there is a more basic question: do you think that the open world economy and the free market economy of the “West” is better than the state-controlled systems of Russia and China?
Recent times have been a lamentable period for democratic government. Still, do you think that the clown show of Western democracy is better than the Ice Capades of the Russian and Chinese dictatorships?
Are we out against two systems or are we out against two leaders (Putin and Zi)?
Nobody wants the Russian invasion of Ukraine to turn into a shooting war for the West, let alone a nuclear war. So we need to assess the quantity and quality of our military forces if we want to deter further aggression.
Both the United States and the “West” more generally have a bunch of problems. Foreign policy and military policy aren’t the only policies. It would be useful to try to solve the most important problems. Shouting and accusations will accompany any such effort. That’s probably one of the important problems.
As I write, it appears that a stand-up comedian is striving to be a stand-up guy. So might we all.

What If?

Posted on February 13, 2022 by jsh54

Historians should stick to post-diction, not engage in prediction. Still, an American citizen is free to wonder about things that are going on or might come to pass.

President Donald Trump openly disparaged the European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In his view, they didn’t fulfill their agreed levels of defense spending and tried to involve the United States in petty conflicts of interest only to Europeans. Susan Rice, the Ambassador to the United Nations during the Obama administration, has been quoted as telling the British and French ambassadors to the UN that “You’re not going to drag us into your shitty little war [in Libya].”

American President Joe Biden came into office pledging to repair the damage done by his predecessor to American leadership in NATO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin keeps massing Russian military forces around the frontiers of Ukraine. They are engaged in training exercises, now in co-operation with Belarus.

President Biden keeps warning Putin that a Russian invasion of Ukraine will trigger massive economic sanctions.

Putin keeps announcing that he has no intention of invading Ukraine, but that he insists that Ukraine never become a member of NATO.

President Biden’s spokespeople keep announcing that intelligence sources reveal that a Russian invasion is imminent.

Ukraine President Volodomyr Zelensky seems to believe that the Russians are doing something other than preparing to invade.

What does Putin get out of holding these military exercises without invading?

Well, President Biden has made it clear that the United States is not going to fight Russia over the independence of Ukraine. Instead, the United States will plaster Russia with economic sanctions.

President Biden has made it clear that the United States will do all it can to prevent completion of the Nord Stream energy pipeline from Russia to Germany.

The European Union (EU) has been suffering strains in recent years. Brexit is one sign of those strains. British prime minister Boris Johnson seems closely aligned with the American position.

The tensions between the more economically-developed and solidly democratic EU members in Western Europe and the less developed and allegedly less solidly democratic EU members in Eastern Europe have bubbled along for several years. Germany and France seem less enthusiastic than is the Biden administration about confronting Russia over Ukraine, or more skeptical about Russia’s readiness to invade Ukraine.

Arguably, what Putin gets out of the present crisis is two things. First, he is making it clear to Ukraine that no one is coming to save them. They will have to make a deal with Moscow at some point. One knock-on effect of that might be the eventual disintegration of Ukraine between its eastern and western areas.

Second, he could be promoting the dissolution of NATO and even of the EU. The crisis may be forcing an eventual choice for Europe between Russia and the United States over energy supplies. It could be forcing a discussion over whether NATO and the EU have expanded too far, too fast to the East.

Certainly this is just idle speculation by an ill-informed school teacher. Still, one question leads to more questions.

Are the projected sanctions strong enough to harm Russia to the point where they would actually deter an invasion through the fear of unrest inside Russia?

Can the United States guarantee the European Union affordable long-term access to alternative energy supplies if the Nord Stream is not completed?

Can the European Union sort out it identity issues in a timely fashion?

NATO and Ukraine.

Posted on January 17, 2022 by jsh54

Back in 1949, the eastern half of Europe languished in slavery to the Soviet Union. Not wanting Western Europe to end up in the same boat, the United States and its allies formed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). As part of the propaganda war, NATO declared that any European country could join. However, a unanimous vote the member-states had to approve each new admission.[1]

In one of the great triumphs for humanity, the Soviet system and empire finally collapsed of its own grave defects. Subsequently, many of the former “puppet states” joined NATO. They also joined the separate, but closely over-lapping European Community (EC). In both cases, they had to meet specific standards covering a wide range of social, economic, and political issues. The former German Democratic Republic became a member in 1990 when it merged with the German Federal Republic; Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined in 1999; Bulgaria, Rumania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) joined in 2004. All of these countries wanted both safety and prosperity.

Seen from the Russian perspective, NATO (i.e. the United States) had taken advantage of Russia’s period of post-Soviet weakness and disintegration to push forward its frontline right to the borders of historical Russia. Indeed, the admission of the Baltic states added a first chunk of the lands won for Russia by Peter the Great. In 2008, President George W. Bush got NATO to declare that Ukraine and Georgia would join NATO at some future point. Who knows what further, ever-farther-from-the-Atlantic additions might follow? Russia began punching back.

Subsequently, people came nearer to their senses. NATO has dragged its feet on presenting a plan of work to the two countries. Both France and Germany have shown themselves wary of admitting Ukraine. In 2014, the Obama Administration did little of substance to bolster Ukraine after the Russians re-took the Crimea and fomented rebellion in two heavily ethnic Russian administrative divisions (“oblasts”) of Ukraine. Given the unanimity requirement, there is little chance that Ukraine could join NATO in the foreseeable future.

Here’s the thing: neither Russia nor the West wants Ukraine in NATO. One reason the West doesn’t want Ukraine in NATO because of the intractable barriers to entry. For one thing, it has been through a number of revolutions and doubtful elections. It hardly meets the definition of a stable democracy. Then there is a good deal of buyer’s remorse inside the EC and NATO over the admission of Hungary and Poland. Why add one more questionably-democratic country to a community already threatened by disintegration? For another thing, Ukraine is a “kleptocracy.”[2] It also has a bad record on honest dealing with post-Soviet Russia.

Another reason is that it could well involve fighting to defend Ukraine. It is unlikely to involve a direct military confrontation. More likely would be a Russian-directed campaign of subversion and insurrection. There is no reason to think that the army of Ukraine is any more robust than were the armies of Iraq when ISIS attacked or the Afghan National Army when the Taliban went on its final offensive. No Westerner wants another quagmire.

Perhaps “neutralization” on the Finnish or Austrian model might work?

[1] Edward Wong and Lara Jakes, “Why the Members of NATO Won’t Let Ukraine Join Anytime Soon,” NYT, 14 January 2022.

[2] Transparency International ranks Ukraine 117^th on a list of 180 countries.

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