Competition between states provides the fundamental dynamic in international relations. Economic wealth and –especially–industrial power translate into military, political, and cultural power. In alliance with other countries, the United States fought a “Fifty Years’ War” (1940-1990) against aggressive tyrannies. In the end, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and the Soviet Union all were laid in the dust. After 1945, Germany and Japan were reconciled with their foes and became vital pillars of the “West.” Reconciliation failed with post-Soviet Russia.[1]
Some countries reacted against the most recent Western victory, and especially against the United States.[2] China, Russia, and Iran hold pride of place among the “revisionist” states hoping to un-do American leadership (or “hegemony” or “empire”).[3] China’s headlong drive toward economic power began to pay-off in a dramatic military build-up. Russia both balked at the American propensity for regime-change and sought to restore much of the territory lost in the break-up of the Soviet Union. Iran pursued both nuclear weapons and the use of Shi’ite and related groups throughout the Middle East. Contemporary conservatives tend to blame the Barack Obama administration (2008—2016) for a loss of focus on great-power politics during a critical moment.[4] However, almost twenty years of botched relations with the “revisionist” states on the part of both the United States and the European Union preceded the arrival in power of this bunch of highly-intelligent, well-educated fools. Donald Trump then bolted from the multilateral executive agreements crafted in Obama’s second term, leaving both the deal with Iran and the Paris Climate Accord; and alienated America’s European allies.
The Biden administration seems to have believed that things would snap back into place once the adults regained control in 2021. Instead, the “revisionist” states doubled-down on their pursuit of national advantage while tightening the bonds between them. Their bet seems to be that there is something fundamentally wrong with America these days. That’s a big gamble.
It took until 2023, but the Biden administration now seems to realize the nature of the situation. Gone is the open hostility to Saudi Arabia. India, for all the flaws of its leader Narendra Modi, is being courted. Engagement with Ukraine deepens, to the point where Americans are increasingly telling Kyiv exactly how to fight the war. The visit of the Taiwanese leader to the United States, like President Biden’s summit meeting with the leaders of Japan and South Korea are important steps in opposing Chinese expansionism.[5]
Could this new conflict spiral out of control into catastrophe? After 9/11, the danger from “radical Islam” was over-played. Is this crisis the same or different? A clear discussion leading to a bi-partisan consensus would support American efforts.
[1] Why the former Soviet Union did not follow the same path remains an important question for historians. People who invoke the Marshall Plan analogy don’t know anything about what made the Marshall Plan work.
[2] Worth a read: James Headley’s essay “Post-Communist Russia and the West: From Crisis to Crisis?” in Steven Fish et al, eds., A Quarter Century of Post-Communism Assessed (2016).
[3] The future stance of the European Union remains open to question.
[4] Walter Russell Mead, “Geopolitical Climate Denialism,” WSJ, 10 August 2023.
[5] Walter Russell Mead, “Power Matters More Than Diplomacy,” WSJ, 22 August 2023.
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