On 6 January 2021, a mob of between 2,000 and 4,000 people attacked the Capitol building.  Their goal was to prevent the certification of Joe Biden as President.[1] 

            The numbers are more than a little wonky.  First, how many people attended the Trump rally?  “The House Select Committee that investigated the events of Jan. 6 estimated that Trump’s speech drew 53,000 supporters.”[2]  Second, how many people marched from the rally to the Capitol?  “Federal officials estimate that about ten thousand rioters entered the Capitol grounds,…”  The “grounds proper consist mostly of lawns, walkways, streets, drives, and planting areas” surrounding the actual Capitol building.[3]  Third, how many people actually attacked the police lines and then broke into the Capitol building?  “[T]he Secret Service and FBI have estimated that from 2,000 to 2,500 ultimately entered the building.”[4] 

So, the crowd funneled down from 50,000 at the rally to 10,000 who gathered around the Capitol to 2,500 people who actually entered the Capitol.  It seems unlikely to me that someone would attack the police lines, advance to the outside of the building, and then not enter.  So, did about 2,500 of the 53,000 at the rally take violent action? 

The attack on the Capitol made for a harrowing television spectacle.  Thereafter, Democratic political leaders called Trump a “fascist” and a “genuine threat to democracy.” 

These charges seem not to have resonated with many voters.  Why 6 January 2021 didn’t permanently sink Trump’s political fortunes presents something of a puzzle.  The mainstream news coverage, both in print and on the Devil Box, made the basic things pretty clear.  Despite its bitterly partisan make-up, the January 6 Committee did an excellent job of bringing forward a huge mass of evidence. 

And yet…  A recent YouGov poll reported that 29 percent of respondents “believe the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol was legitimate political discourse.”  Almost half (46 percent) “describe it as a violent insurrection.”[5]  Unless there is a big overlap between the two groups, then 25 percent of respondents either didn’t know what to think or thought that the events fell somewhere between legitimate political speech and a violent insurrection.  The favored explanation in the WSJ is that subsequent Democratic “lawfare” pushed people to rally around Trump.  The Democratic explanation might be summarized as “They’re a bunch of idiots who shouldn’t have the right to vote.”  Until many of their own voters jumped ship in November 2024.  Another explanation might be that many people have a pretty good idea of who Trump is as a person.  Maybe they went “Got that out of your system, Don?  Feel better now?” 

On 6 January 2025, Congress certified the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.  Defeated Presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris presided gracefully over the ceremony. 

The story would be hard to believe if we hadn’t lived through it.    

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[1] “Congress certifies Trump win on Jan. 6 anniversary,” The Week, 17 January 2025, p. 4. 

[2] Jonathan Limehouse, “Trump compare Jan. 6 crowd size to MLK march,” USAToday, 9 August 2024. 

[3] On the Capitol grounds, see: United States Capitol – Wikipedia 

[4] See: January 6 United States Capitol attack – Wikipedia and Alan Feuer, “Capital Attack Prosecutions Have Ensnared Over 1,380 People,” NYT, 16 April 2024. 

[5] “Poll Watch,” The Week, 17 January 2025, p. 17.