Countries have foreign policies for their own advantage, not for the advantage of others. Domestic politics can weigh upon foreign policy. Both statements are true. What happens when domestic politics and foreign policy conflict? things can get messy.

Many Americans are–belatedly–appalled by the human cost of Israel’s attack on Hamas in Gaza. President Joe Biden has been seeking to curb Israel’s war effort. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been turning a deaf ear to Biden’s entreaties and advice and requests. It has been reported that Biden has grown “frustrated” with Netanyahu’s refusal to respond to his master’s voice. (“Angry” or “enraged” or “humiliated” might be better terms.) In particular, the Biden administration has been pushing for a cease-fire, the admission of large amounts of humanitarian aid, and the abandonment of an attack on Rafah. Now Biden has “paused” the delivery to Israel of 3,500 American bombs. These are “offensive” weapons that might be used to attack Hamas troops in an indiscriminate way that leads to awful news stories. At least for the moment, the flow of “defensive” weapons (like air defense weapons) will go on.

At the same time, Netanyahu heads a coalition government that holds a narrow majority in the Knesset. Fourteen Knesset-members have joined with Netanyahu’s party to create that narrow majority. They are all absolutely committed to continuing the fight, invading Rafah, and rejecting any cease-fire. If Netanyahu yields to Biden’s demands, then it is likely that his coalition will disintegrate. Netanyahu may be forced out of office. A more tractable government may come to power.

It’s hard to believe that Biden (or Secretary of State Blinken at least) does not know this. It leads to the question: Is Biden seeking to intervene in the politics of another democracy?

If countries have foreign policies for their own advantage and if a parliamentary majority in Israel thinks it essential to destroy Hamas root and branch, what might Israel do? The obvious answer is “go it alone.” American military aid to Israel is reported to account for 15 percent of its defense budget. It might be difficult over the short-term for Israel to make up this gap.

One possibility–probably far-fetched–is for Israel to turn to China. China is opposing the United States in several parts of the world. Notably, it is supporting the Russian war against Ukraine. It is fending off heavy American pressure to stop this policy. China might be willing to do the same for Israel, at least over the short-term. Obviously, that would strain the China-Iran relationship. But it would also send shocks through the American alliance system. Probably would do the same with American domestic politics. Turn-about is fair play.