Public Opinion in September 2022.

            The scalding televised hearings of the House 6 January Committee had been held and the FBI had staged its “Raid on Mar-a-Lago” to recover the purloined secret documents.  In an early September 2022 poll, better than half (53 percent) of respondents had a negative view of Donald Trump, while a slim minority (44 percent) had a favorable view.[1]  Better than half said Trump’s post-election actions threatened democracy, while better than a third (38percent) said he had had a right to contest the election outcome.  Just over half (51 percent) thought that Trump had “committed serious federal crimes,” while more than a third (38 percent) thought that he had not committed serious federal crimes.”  Asked whom they would support in a 2024 rematch between Trump and Joe Biden, 45 percent favored Biden and 42 percent favored Trump. 

            The poll also asked about specific polices.[2]  The respondents were evenly divided on legal immigration, with 44 percent supporting the Democratic position and 44 percent supporting the Republican position.  On illegal immigration, 51 percent favored the Republican position, while 37 percent supported the Democratic position.  Among Independents, 51 percent favored the Republican position.  More than half of the respondents said that they agreed with the Republican Party on illegal immigration, and half of the respondents favored building a wall along the Mexican border.  Of these, 20 percent identified as Democrats and 46 percent identified as Independents. 

When it comes to the economy, a clear majority of voters (52-38 percent) agree more with Republicans rather than Democrats.  Furthermore, a large plurality of voters (49-31 percent) assign greater importance to economic issues than to social issues in deciding their vote for Congress in November 2022. 

            On crime and policing, Republicans led Democrats 47 percent to 37 percent.  Independents leaned Republican by 49 to 31 percent.  On guns, a narrow plurality (47-43 percent) said they agree more with Republicans than with Democrats, but they even more strongly either oppose or favor (49-46 percent) banning semi-automatic weapons.   On the latter, 23 percent of Democrats oppose a ban, while 29 percent of Republicans support a ban.  

            Voters massively (61-30 percent) reject gender dysphoria, believing that gender is what a person is born as rather than psychological identity.  Americans remain conservative in their approach to aspects of sex education.  They overwhelmingly oppose classroom instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in elementary school (70-27 percent) and are divided on middle school (54-44 percent), but narrowly support it in high school (56-42 percent). 

On only a few issues do Democrats have the bulge on Republicans.  On climate and energy policy, the Democrats have a clear edge (50-31 percent) if not a clear majority.   Voters massively (62-30 percent) oppose the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade.  Similarly, 62 percent support making abortion always or mostly legal.  In contrast, 31 percent say abortion should be mostly or always illegal.  The opponents include 34 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of Independents.     

A recent forecast gives the Republicans a good chance of capturing the House.[3] 


[1] Ruth Igielnik, “Pro or Con, Voters Have Not Wavered on Trump,” NYT, 23 September 2022. 

[2] See: Microsoft Word – NYT Siena National PR 9-19-22 — FINAL.docx 

[3] 2022 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight 

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