Not so long ago, European hopes for a partnership with China looked promising. At Davos in 2017, Xi Jinping said all the right things about wanting to combat climate change, continue building an open world economy, and working co-operatively with other nations to solve shared problems. This made an appealing contrast to the Trump Administration’s “America First” stance. The “China Market” offered both a growing market for high-end European products and cheap source the consumer goods. China’s “Belt and Road” initiative dangled generous infrastructure spending before countries still struggling out of the financial crisis and recession of the first years of the 21st Century.[1] European-Chinese co-operation looked like a low-cost or no-cost policy option.
Then the Chinese-American split came out into the open. Then China’s authoritarianism became too blatant to ignore, with the persecution of the Uighurs and the crack-down on democracy in Hong Kong. Then China started throwing its weight around in Europe to stave off criticism or coerce compliance.
Now, the deepening rivalry between the United States and the Peoples Republic of China is forcing other countries to choose sides. They can back the US, or back China, or try for non-aligned independence.[2]
Some in the European Union (EU) want to back the US. For exponents of an up-dated “Atlantic Alliance,” the US is the only choice: both countries uphold the same values and the US possesses formidable military and diplomatic power. They choose to see Donald Trump as a destructive anomaly. They argue that neither the US nor the EU are strong enough alone to counter the PRC, but together than can win.[3]
One problem here is that the EU is crumbling. The divide between the original founder countries of the EU and the later additions has surfaced with “Brexit” and the dissent of some of the Eastern Europeans from Franco-German leadership. The divide between Northern and Southern Europeans revealed by the financial crisis has only been papered over, not solved.
Others clearly want to pursue non-alignment in a manner that will enable them to hold the ring between the US and the PRC. Gaining this kind of power involves closer ties with Russia. Russia has greater military power than do the European countries; Russia has abundant oil and gas flowing to Europe through its pipelines. The EU and Russia would make a far more impressive bloc than does the EU alone.
One problem here is that Russia will exact a high price for its co-operation. Europeans might be willing to see Russia restore order a la Putin to the kleptocratic Ukraine. How would they deal with Russian irredentism around its Western and Southern frontiers? Then, Chinese dissidents end up in prison. Russian dissidents end up dead.
Is “Europe” too divided, weak, and even misguided, to chart an independent course in the world?
[1] Chinese management’s reform of half of the shipping facilities of the Piraeus probably delighted Northern Europeans fed up with Greek sloth, fraud, and incompetence.
[2] Yaroslav Trofimov, “Europe’s Face-Off With China,” WSJ, 29 February-1 March 2020.
[3] You can see this as Pessimistic in that it implies that the PRC has already gained so much strength that the US alone cannot check China’s course. Or perhaps it’s just Realistic.
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