The Next President of the United States of America.

“What’s troubling you is the nature of my game.”–The Rolling Stones, “Sympathy for the Devil.”

There is the coincidence of the Democratic primaries for the November 2020 presidential election and the current impeachment trial of Donald Trump.  This has created a great deal of uncertainty.

First, there seems to be a good chance that Donald Trump will be re-elected president if he is not removed from office and barred from all future elective office.  There is no guarantee, but if you look at the past election and the current polling data, trump seems to have a shot–at the least.

Second, if Trump is removed, then the Republicans will lose the White House.  Mike Pence is a joke as vice-president and could not mount a credible presidential campaign.  John McCain has died.  The future possible Republican presidential candidates–take Nikkie Haley as one example–are nowhere near ready to run and would not want to run just to get creamed.

Third, Donald Trump will not be removed from office.  It would take 67 votes in the Senate.  The Democrats have 47 votes at the moment.  They might have swung 4 votes on admitting witnesses and documents before Adam Schiff and Jerrold Nadler worked their oratorical magic during the hearings, but they were never going to swing 20 votes.

Fourth, the current Democrat presidential candidate mix “moderates” (Biden, Bloomberg) with some “radicals” (Warren, Sanders), and a bunch of munchkins.

Fifth, the Caucasian Caucuses in Iowa haven’t occurred yet.  It’s hard to tell who will win there.  It is even more difficult to tell who will win the actual primaries to follow.  Sure, it seems likely that Joe Biden will win the nomination, but “count no man happy until he is dead.”

Sixth, the uncertainty about which Democratic Party will actually show up in the presidential election colors my thinking about impeachment.

Seventh, in 2016 I held my nose and voted for Hillary Clinton in order to keep Donald Trump out of the White House.

Eighth, in 2020 I will not vote for Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders in order to keep Trump out of the White House.  Both, but especially Warren, are threats to my middle-class life and retirement savings.  A President Sanders might appoint Warren Secretary of the Treasury, so neither one is an acceptable presidential candidate.

Ninth, until I know that the Democratic presidential candidate will be someone reasonably sane and practical, then I’m in favor of keeping Trump available as an insurance policy.   The trial in the Senate is now, while the Democratic nomination is in the future.  So I support letting Trump go.  That doesn’t guarantee that I’ll vote for him next time.  That’s up to my Democratic friends.

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