History lessons.  The United States was a high tariff nation for a long time.[1]  By 1929, the average tariff on imported goods was 36 percent.  The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 raised the tariff by 6 percent.[2]  In comparison, the average American tariff under recent administrations has been 2 percent.  Trump’s tariffs elevate that to 23 percent.  So, for the moment, the Trump tariffs have a greater impact than did the Smoot-Hawley tariff.  (Give it a few years and maybe we’ll be living with still-higher Vance tariffs.)  

In 1971, President Richard Nixon wanted foreign countries to revalue the dollar.  To nudge them toward speedy agreement, he imposed a 10 percent surcharge on imports.  He got speedy agreement and the surcharge went away. 

Today.  How serious a blow to the American economy are the Trump tariffs?  Never mind the stock market and the headlines in the New York Times.[3]  The American tariffs (at least the current high rates) aren’t likely to topple a row of dominos.   Most countries aren’t eager to launch a trade war with anyone just because the United States has launched one with everyone.  Most countries remain committed to “globalization” and comparatively free trade. 

What is true of Europeans and non-Chinese Asians is also true of many Americans.  One recent poll reported that 54 percent of respondents opposed the tariffs, while 42 percent supported them.  Pressure from constituents may bring Republican members of Congress off the sidelines, at least on this issue. 

Then what about retaliatory tariffs on American goods?  This sounds a little odd when Americans are being told that tariffs on foreign imports is really a tax on ordinary Americans.  Same goes for tariffs on American goods in foreign countries.  Do democracies abroad suddenly want to impose possibly long-term “tax” increases on their own constituents? 

            So, it is not clear if American tariffs and foreign retaliation are a done deal for the long haul.  Many of the target countries want to cut a deal with the United States.  China is an exception.[4]  It’s fair to say that people are not entirely sure what President Donald Trump wants.  Does he want tariff equality with most of America’s trading partners, while battering the daylights out of China?  Does he want a “fortress America,” as many people believe or hope or fear?  If he does want a “fortress America,” would that system survive the end of his term? 

            In 1932, the British created a system called “Imperial Preference”: low to no tariffs around the members, combined with a high external tariff directed against the Americans.  Could Trump use tariff negotiations to create something similar?  Tariff equality within the bloc and high tariffs by directed against China.   

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[1] Greg Ip, “An Unpopular and Survivable Trade War,” WSJ, 8 April 2025. 

[2] However, it denominated tariffs in dollar terms, not in percent of price terms.  As prices fell all around the world in the early Thirties, the absolute cost of the imports increased by much more than 6 percent.  They rose as high as an additional 19 percent above the 36 percent level. 

[3] Wait.  Wall Street and the NYT are on the same side?  The problems of the Democrats in a nutshell.  “We are the people our parents warned us about.” 

[4] It may turn out that Canada is also an exception.  Canadians are the nicest people in the world.  Until they’re not.  In Normandy in Summer 1944, an attacking Waffen SS unit over-ran a Canadian Army field hospital.  They killed everyone.  Then the Canadians counter-attacked and recaptured the hospital.  The Canadians never “captured” any more Waffen SS troops.