The year began with a menacing fact about Sino- American trade.  In the course of the last year of the interminable Biden presidency, China’s global trade surplus hit $992 billion, the highest ever.  China’s surplus in trade with the United States reached almost $525 billion.[1]  That’s over half of the total trade surplus for the year.  This news came as a grim confirmation of fears to people who think that trade deficits represent job losses in the deficit country, represent a victory for the chief rival of the United States, and that China is trying to export its way out of grave domestic economic problems. 

            This fact provides important background to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff policy.  Trump had promised to impose tariffs “on Day 1.”  He didn’t quite do that.  No sooner was he inaugurated than Trump said that he was considering a 10 percent increase on the existing tariffs on imports from China and a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.[2]  The tariffs would go into effect on 1 February 2025. 

“He’s a fake!” chortled Never-Trump pundits in early January 2025.[3]  He campaigned on levying tariffs of 10-20 percent on all imports from everywhere.  Now the President-elect is talking about focused tariffs on a few things.  Others took a more nuanced view.  This is his second term, so people have become accustomed to his “bluster.”  More than likely, he talks about tariffs in order to “squeez[e] out some concessions.”[4]

            In the eyes of critics, there are two different issues here.  The first is economic warfare against China.  America’s aggressive rival[5] has some serious weak spots.  Most noticeably, these include “a spiraling property market, perilous local government finances, a shrinking labor force, and brittle consumer confidence.”[6]  Since the first Trump administration, many American companies have been pulling back from China.  The country is vulnerable to pressure. 

            China hawks felt ambivalent about tariffs.  The very smart Aaron Friedberg,[7] took a hopeful view.  To resist “Chinese mercantilism,” tariffs “in a more targeted, tailored form” can be useful.  Tariffs on everyone else, however, would impede formation of an anti-China alliance.[8]  Meanwhile, China is exploiting every opportunity to build an anti-American alliance.  Why increase the number of volunteers? 

            The second is the tariffs on everyone else.  The tariffs on Mexico and Cananda “could throw American diplomatic relationships and global supply chains into disarray.”[9] 

            What does China do with all the dollars it earns from selling to America? 

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[1] “The bottom line,” The Week 24 January 2025, p. 32. 

[2] “Trade: Trump readies tariffs on rivals and allies,” The Week, 31 January 2025, p. 32. 

[3] No, he’s all too real. 

[4] Gabriel Rubin in Reuters, quoted in “Trade: Trump readies tariffs on rivals and allies,” The Week, 31 January 2025, p. 32.

[5] “A toughish lot, but very go ahead, rather like we were in the old days.”—Sam Collins to George Smiley in John LeCarre, Smiley’s People. 

[6] Eswar Prasad in NYT, quoted in “China: Does Trump really want a trade war?” The Week, 17 January 2025, p. 34.

[7] See: Aaron Friedberg – Wikipedia 

[8] Friedberg’s blog at Foreign Policy, quoted in “China: Does Trump really want a trade war?” The Week, 17 January 2025, p. 34. 

[9] Ana Swanson in NYT, quoted in “Trade: Trump readies tariffs on rivals and allies,” The Week, 31 January 2025, p. 32.