The awful Syrian Civil War (2011- ) appeared to have guttered out in a Russian-assisted victory for Assad Jr.[1] Assad’s government held 70 percent of the country. Kurds held territory in the Northeast where Syria abuts the Kurdish sections of Iraq…and Turkey.[2] Opponents of the regime also remained in possession of a chunk of Northwestern Syria centered on Idlib. The most formidable of these opponents were the Islamists of the group “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” at least nominally linked to al Qaeda. There is also a Syrian opposition militia sponsored by Turkey. Both groups receive support and direction from Turkey.[3]
In early December 2024, they launched a sudden attack which soon stampeded the surprised Assad forces. Soon, the insurgents took possession of Aleppo. Surprised and panicked, Assad asked his Russian and Iranian allies for help. Russian air forces stationed in Syria did some bombing. Iran sent an estimated 300 troops from those already stationed in Iraq. All this seems like small potatoes for a threatened ally. However, Russia is bending all its strength to beat Ukraine. For the past year Israel has been grinding away Iranian commanders and forces in Syria whenever it has a free minute from leveling Gaza and then beating up on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran may prefer to keep its reach short in a country that borders Israel. What with Israel’s touchy sensitivity about Iran.[4]
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan remarked that “we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, is facing certain kinds of pressure.” “Certain kinds of pressure” my left foot! By 8 December 2024 Assad was in Russia and Damascus had fallen to the rebels.
I didn’t see this coming. But “I only know what I read in the papers,” as Will Rogers said. Did anyone else see it coming? These developments caught many journalists specializing in the Middle East flat-footed. One asked “Will Assad survive”? Another speculated that Turkey had sponsored the attack in the expectation that it would be possible to impose a peace deal on Assad that allowed the better than 4.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey to go home, while also checking the power of Kurds in Syria. Still another argued that “the Kremlin has too much at stake” to give up on Syria. We’re way beyond that now.
What about the C.I.A., Israel’s Mossad, Russia’s F.S.B., Iran’s intelligence service?
Turkey’s intelligence service, the MIT, must have known, permitting or ordering the attack. It was their clients who attacked. Did they not share the information with the United States? Probably not. Both may belong to NATO, but Turkish and American interests have diverged in important areas over the last several decades. The United States has cooperated with Iraqi and Syrian Kurds, while Turkey sees Kurdish nationalism as a grave danger. The American overthrow of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003 created a Kurdish proto-state in northern Iraq. American efforts to battle ISIS/ISIL have required close cooperation with Kurds. Like Israel, Turkey has a foreign policy to advance its own interests.
[1] “Islamist rebel attack reignites Syrian civil war,” The Week, 13 December 2024, p. 5.
[2] There are about 900 American Special Forces troops in the Northeast. They work with the Kurdish forces, primarily against the remnants of ISIS.
[3] See: National Intelligence Organization – Wikipedia
[4] Wouldn’t want somebody in Jerusalem shouting “OK, that tears it!”
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