Once, America was the greatest industrial economy in the world, while China was a monument to Communist fanaticism.  Today, 28 percent of China’s economy is devoted to manufacturing, while 11 percent of America’s economy is devoted to manufacturing.  Much attention and criticism has focused on the “unfair” means by which China has risen up to become the workshop of the world.  China has used massive government subsidies, intellectual property theft, and exchange rate manipulation to achieve this goal.  The social and political effects of American industrial decline have polarized the country.  What may be missing is a recognition of an equally great source of China’s real “Great Leap forward”: educational priorities.[1] 

            Between 2000 and 2024, enrollment in China’s higher-education system has risen ten-fold.  That means that between 1976 and 2000, enrollment in Chinese secondary education also rose by at least this much.  That means that forty years ago, the Chinese government made a commitment to dramatically improving the educational qualifications of the country’s people. 

It wasn’t just more students going to university, then to graduate school.  As a share of the student population, many more Chinese students major in science, math, and engineering than is the case in most large economies of the world.  More than 50 percent of Chinese undergraduates and 75 percent of graduate students major in math, science, engineering, or agriculture.  In comparison, 20 percent of American undergraduates and 50 percent of graduate students major in these areas.  That means that forty years ago, the Chinese government saw science and technology as the keys to future power and prosperity. 

            They may be just getting started.  Since 2014, China has tripled its spending on research and development.[2]  The July 2024 meeting of the country’s leaders opted to “make extraordinary arrangements for urgently needed disciplines and majors” over the next decade.    

            Look at the specific case of batteries.  Huge amounts of readily available and cheap raw materials can be used to make powerful and long-lasting rechargeable batteries.  These can be used to power electric vehicles.  The Chinese have figured out how to do this.  No surprise here: there are almost 50 graduate programs in China where faculty and students focus on battery chemistry or battery metallurgy.  In the United States, there is “a handful” of individual professors.  One result is that two-thirds of scientific papers on these subjects now come from China.  American scientists produce 12 percent. 

What course for other industrial countries?  One solution is to do what China began to do half a century ago, get the foreigners to build factories in your country so that you can share in the Chinese success.  Another solution is to learn to do what the foreigners already know how to do by copying what they have done. 

Does the current tariff war against China contemplate possible “peace settlements”?  Building products in America has long been a strategy for Japanese and European car companies.  Building a science and technology infrastructure prioritizing involving labs and scientists, and sustained across half a century may be problematic for a political system and culture like those in the United States. 

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[1] Keith Bradsher, “How China Built Its Tech Prowess: STEM Classes and Research Labs,” NYT, 14 August 2024. 

[2] China devotes 2.6 percent of GDP to research and development; the United States 3.4 percent.  So, 0.9 percent in 2014.