Logically, if Joe Biden is cognitively unfit to serve as President six months from now, then it is because he is cognitively unfit to serve as President right now.[1]  The objection to removing him from President right now appears to be that he is a nice man and it would hurt his feelings.  So, the best that we are going to get is a pained, but dignified announcement that he will not seek re-election and that he releases his delegates for the convention in August 2024. 

            Vice President Kamala Harris is often mentioned as Biden’s logical successor.  How will Harris fare if she seeks a term as President in her own right? 

Theodore Roosevelt succeeded William McKinley, then won a term in his own right. 

Calvin Coolidge succeeded Warren G. Harding, then won a term in his own right. 

Harry Truman succeeded Franklin D. Roosevelt, then won a term in his own right. 

Richard Nixon followed Dwight Eisenhower, then failed to win a term in his own right. 

Lyndon B. Johnson succeeded John F. Kennedy, then won a term in his own right. 

Hubert Humphrey followed Lyndon Johnson, then failed to win a term in his own right. 

Gerald Ford succeeded Richard Nixon, then failed to win a term in his own right. 

George H. W. Bush followed Reagan and won a term in his own right. 

Al Gore followed Bill Clinton, then failed to win a term in his own right. 

Thus, between 1900 and 1964, four of five former Vice Presidents won the presidency in their own right.  So, the odds are good? 

Not necessarily.  Since 1964, one of four former Vice Presidents won in their attempt to win election as President in their own right.[2]  Why the change?  I don’t know. 

Those odds argue against any coronation of Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee in 2024.  In turn, holding a truly open convention would allow a bunch of aspiring politicians to duke it out in smoke-filled[3] back rooms.  This might not produce a winner, but neither will Biden or—by the odds—Harris. 

However, past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Harris supporters can point to George H.W. Bush as a counter-example.[4]  It could happen. 

---

[1] Look up Woodrow Wilson and Edith Galt Wilson.  Or Winston Churchill’s second time as prime minister. 

[2] I omit Joe Biden because he did not try for election as President until after a full term out of office.  Others may well disagree with my decision.  That’s what makes horse races. 

[3] Yes, I do know that no one smokes any more.  I’m just having a hard time coming up with “la juste mot.”

[4] They may have to put up with some eye-rolling from their audience in response.