The Democratic Convention will be held in Chicago from 19 to 22 August 2024. 

            The second Presidential Debate will be held on 10 September 2024. 

            Election Day is 5 November 2024. 

            It seems likely at this moment that President Joe Biden will continue his campaign for re-election.  He is described as “huddling” with his family, all strong supporters of his continuing his campaign.  Perhaps not the most objective bunch of people to consult, but there you have it.  Doubtless many other people—“the inner circle,” really rich donors, campaign people, pollsters, leading Democratic politicians—will also be consulted. 

If the Democrats are going to stick with President Joe Biden, then they are going to have to hope that he doesn’t suffer some cognitive mishap between now and Election Day.  In particular, they have to hope that the debate on 10 September is not a re-run of 27 June.  If he does suffer another melt-down—either in public or among the elites during some critical event—it will not be possible to sweep that under the carpet.  Also, it will discredit many of these people if they remove him as the candidate after having sworn up-and-down that he just had a “bad day” in June. 

            If the Democrats are going to force out President Biden as their standard-bearer, then they will have to do it by mid-August at the latest.  They can’t wait around to see how the 10 September debate turns out.  Forcing out President Biden by mid-August would allow them to either converge behind Vice President Kamala Harris or hold an open convention.  In either case, the sooner, the better.  There are only about six weeks left before mid-August. 

            Many people hold Vice President Harris in low regard.  Many Democrats probably would prefer that she not get the nomination.  She herself probably would very much like to be president.  She is unlikely to go quietly unless she gets a better offer.  The obvious solution is for her to move to the Supreme Court.  However, there are no current vacancies.  What to do? 

            The obvious (to me) solution is for Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor to resign her position in order to become…IDK, Ambassador to the United Nations?  How to get Sotomayor to resign from the Supreme Court?  Well, there is the still-unresolved matter of who leaked the draft opinion of the Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade.  This amounted to a significant breach of Court policy and decorum.  It seems hardly possible for the leaker to remain on the Court.  So, before mid-August, there may be a leak to the press on recent discoveries achieved through forensic computer investigations. 

            If President Biden cannot be persuaded to leave and he leads the Democrats to defeat, there will be the “told you so” issue to trouble Democratic solidarity after the election.  If President Biden can be persuaded to leave, there will remain the “jump” or “pushed” issue to trouble Democratic solidarity both before and after the election.  Forcing out a Hispanic woman to be able to then force out an Afro-South Asian woman to be able to put in a White person will trouble Democratic solidarity.  Supposedly, “the prospect of being hanged concentrates the mind wonderfully.” 

            It could be an eventful Summer.