Under Xi Jinping, China’s rise as an economic and military power sent shock-waves around the world.  President Obama called for a “pivot to Asia,” although he failed to un-moor the United States from European and Middle Eastern entanglements.  President Trump actually did begin a pivot to Asia, both by confronting Chinese economic practices and by beginning to walk away from European and Middle Eastern entanglements.  However sensible his policies, Trump could not overcome domestic the reaction to his own multiple divergences from our behavioral norms.  Now President Biden finds himself facing far greater difficulties in Europe, in the Middle East, and in Asia than did either predecessor.  The three crises are linked. 

            The first crisis is the Chinese attempt to assert its hegemony over the Far East and to extend its influence well beyond that region.  The second crisis is the Ukraine-Russia War.  The third crisis is the Israel-Hamas War, or—more exactly—the wars fueled by Iran’s regional aggressiveness.  All are what might be labelled “revisionist” powers.[1] 

Xi Jinping’s pressure on the system is by far the most important.  China’s economic and military build-up became eye-catching, and recently its assertion of control over the South China Sea alarming.  China is indifferent to or irritated by calls to conform to the “rules-based order” created under American leadership since 1945. 

It has been foreseen that China could try to push the United States down into being the second power in East Asia, or exclude it entirely.  As a first step, China may try to take Taiwan.  It may do so by direct assault or by blockade.  Either way, the United States would be drawn into an air and naval war in East Asia. 

Why?  Because Taiwan, and South Korea, and Japan—major industrial nations and American trading partners—depend on open sea ways for prosperity and survival.  All import food, energy, and raw materials in order to export manufactured goods.  The costs of such a war would hit the whole world.  Supply chains would be disrupted, as would international payments.  Public and private financial systems would be badly stressed.  The risks to China also are enormous.  The war would be fought on China’s door-step, even if it could be limited to a conventional war.  Chinese trade, and especially energy imports, would be badly disrupted.  So China profits from the distracting conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. 

            Until recently, the “world order” seemed solid, rational, and productive.  Decades of good times seemed to prove it.  Now, as in Ukraine and Israel, war “might come with dangerous and surprising suddenness.”[2] 

A conservative interpretation of the issues focuses too narrowly on the Biden administration.  “The most important international development on President Biden’s watch has been the erosion of America’s deterrence.”[3]  That erosion or decay has complex origins.  In truth, some of the biggest cracks have appeared during the Biden administration.  But it has been a long time developing.  It will take a long time to repair.  Start now.  We all have a role to play. 

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[1] Between the two World Wars, countries that wanted to re-write (revise) the post-WWI peace settlements included Germany (under both the Weimar Republic and the Third Reich) , the Soviet Union, the Japanese Empire, Fascist Italy, Hungary, and Rumania. 

[2] US Ambassador to Japan Joseph Grew to the State Department before Pearl Harbor. 

[3] Walter Russell Mead, “How China Could Turn Crisis to Catastrophe,” WSJ, 24 October 2023.