Joe Overton (1960-2003) died young, but left a durable legacy in American practical political thought.  His Dad worked for Dow Chemical, so the family ended up in Midland, Michigan.  Joe got a B.S. in Electrical Engineering (Michigan Technological University).  Like his Dad, he went to work for Dow Chemical, as an engineer and project manager.  Later on, he earned a J.D. from Western Michigan University.[1] 

            Overton was a Libertarian.  He went to work for the recently founded think-tank The Mackinac Center for Public Policy.  The Center describes itself as “socially tolerant, economically sophisticated, desiring little government intervention in either their personal or economic affairs.”  It advocates for lower taxes, less government regulation, school choice (i.e. charter schools), and right to work laws.  On the other hand, it will not involve itself in socially conservative causes like abortion (ending legal abortion), marriage (i.e. marriage equality), or book-banning. 

            Being economically “free market” and socially liberal, this particular mix of policies fell neither within the Democratic or Republican ideological camps.  In short, it couldn’t get a hearing.[2]  As a part of his work, Overton worked up a brochure that explained how think-tanks could alter public attitudes toward public policies.  He argued that policies were characterized in public discussion roughly on a range from “Unthinkable” to “Acceptable” to “Popular.”  Only policies described as “Acceptable” got any discussion; only policies that could be discussed could become “Popular.”  Anything that achieved sufficient “Popular” support could become “Policy.”  This narrowed range of possibility became known as the “Overton window.”[3] 

The resolution of the debt ceiling stand-off leaves the United States on course for a financial catastrophe at some point in the future.[4]  With the deficit at 5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) the United States has the highest ratio of the seven largest advanced economies.[5]  Total debt amounts to 97 percent of GDP; in a decade it will increase to about 115 percent.  The rise in interest rates that is being used to combat inflation is expanding the weight of government debt on public finances.  Those rates have increased the cost of government borrowing from a long period of near zero to five percent; the higher rates may last for a while. 

            How did we get into this mess?  Fundamentally, the country itself is both united on some things and divided on others.  It is united on the untouchability of the big drivers of government spending: Defense, Social Security, and Medicare/Medicaid.  It is divided over reducing spending, or increasing taxation, or both as a solution to the problem.  Clearly, this combination of policies cannot be sustained over the long term. 

In short, solving our problems will require shifting or widening the “Overton window.”  Neither party seems interested in doing that.  It may take “the prospect of being hanged.”

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[1] Reportedly “the worst law school in America.”  Michael Cohen (yes that Michael Cohen) went there.  See: Western Michigan University Cooley Law School – Wikipedia 

[2] “Why am I short of attention?/Got a short little span of attention”—Paul Simon, “You Can Call Me Al” (1986).

[3] For two takes, see: How the Politically Unthinkable Can Become Mainstream – The New York Times (nytimes.com) and An Introduction to the Overton Window of Political Possibility – 101 Recommendations to Revitalize Michigan – Mackinac Center 

[4] Greg Ip, “A Debt Deal That Doesn’t Deal With Debt,” WSJ, 1 June 2023. 

[5] Britain is at 3.5 percent, Japan at about 2.5 percent; and Germany has a surplus of about 0.5 percent.